|Less of a prediction and more of a thought:|
Wynne has practically conceded defeat. Prediction models are showing an unprecedented amount of support for the NDP here (LISPOP, for example, is listing this riding as only leaning PC). I wonder if voters who would otherwise vote liberal are now going to vote NDP as a means of unseating the PC incumbent. I still think Fedeli will win but I'm saying this will be an interesting race.
|Yes, this riding, particularly its federal component, tends to lean Liberal/left, so with the fall of the Liberals, the NDP's Henri Giroux will likely have his party's best showing.|
But, Conservative Vic Fedeli draws sufficiently across party lines that his re-election is not in doubt. He is a great constituency MPP. So as much as some people think he's smarmy, too smooth by half, and always just too perfectly dressed to be 'one of us,' he's still going to win.
|Until now I thought it would be an easy win for Vic Fedeli. Now there is a remote possibility of the NDP sweeping ALL of Northern Ontario including Nipissing. So I'm not yet ready to make a final prediction. The NDP candidate Henri Giroux is closely in on Fedeli. We can't forget that Fedeli received about 41% of the votes in 2014. The NDP and Liberal candidates together ended up with about 52% of the votes. This time the Liberal vote is WAY down. Giroux now will likely be close to 40%. North Bay has a lot of public sector employees who will be supporting him. This riding will be close.|
|The typical Liberal vote is now turning or thinking of turning to the NDP. That is likely to continue because this riding has a significant amount of Government employees who are terrified of Doug Ford and realize the Liberals are done. If you look at the results of the last election if the Liberal vote strategically turns to the NDP the PC's are in trouble.|
|I've noticed some significant differences from previous elections. First: far fewer lawn signs than previous. It's almost as if everyone is blase about this election. Second: usually there are tons of Fedeli signs, a lot of liberal signs and a smattering of NDP signs. This time there are a handful of Glass signs, many (but not lots) of Fedeli signs and tons of Giroux signs, but mostly in the area north of downtown (far fewer elsewhere). While I still say Fedeli has this, Giroux might get close enough to make this race uncomfortable.|
|Vic Fedeli is a lock. Only thing worth debating is whether his personal popularity can beat the regional polling numbers by enough to propel him past 50% - I would say yes.|
|Ever since Mike Harris, the provincial Tory will has sure been counterintuitively strong in Nipissing; though 2014's result was pretty weak (likely on external grounds) for Fedeli, a nearly perfectly split opposition soothed the wound. Through that split, I *could* be willing to monitor the potential for the NDP's Giroux--but only if Fedeli weren't running; and unfortunately, unlike the federal seat, the provincial seat doesn't include Temiskaming Shores. (Really: in recent history, has the NDP *ever* gotten above third in Nipissing? It came close by a point in '14.)|
|Without Vic Fedeli, this would be a (fringe) potential Liberal pickup. Although the PC's dominate most of the rural parts of the riding, North Bay is the least working class of the northern Ontario cities, and is less receptive of Doug Ford's populism, hence the Liberals often do quite well there even if you wouldn't expect it. It's also the worst riding for the NDP in northern Ontario.|
However, Fedeli is extremely popular here, and he should breeze to re-election both on the urban popularity and the rural vote by default. He briefly considered a run for Premier but the province-wide dynamics didn't support such. Nonetheless, he's probably looking at a senior cabinet post if they form government...
|Vic Fedeli will win because he is very popular in North Bay and is even respected throughout Northern Ontario. He will get about half of the votes which is what Mike Harris got here as Premier.|
|No way the locally popular Vic Fedeli loses his seat. Nipissing stays Tory blue.|
|What's interesting here is that this seat went more than 60% for Elliott over Ford, and is a big government/university/college town - not working class/blue collar like the other major cities in the North. If anything, this is a seat I can see doing worse thanks for Ford, not better. Potential for a Liberal gain here, oddly enough.|
|Interestingly there is a lot of chatter around town about how people like and respect Vic Fedeli (even people who really disagree with his politics still like him) but really can't stand Doug Ford. While I don't think the PCs will lose this seat, I'd be curious to see if there is an increase in voter sit-out from some PC members.|
|No need to have an election here. This is Vic's riding, no matter how crazy the PC party is.|
|Well Vic is out of the permanent leadership race but will be a very senior Cabinet minister should the PCs win, possibly Deputy Premier.|
|Its now quite possible he could be the next PC leader and maybe premier. Either way Vic Fideli has enough popularity in this riding he should hold it even if their current troubles cost them the election overall.|
|This is Vic's riding, he will win it regardless of if his stint in leadership is temporary or full time.|
|I have said many times that Nipissibg is. Vic Fidelli riding, not a PC riding. So long as the former mayor runs, he will win for which ever party.|
|This is not a PC riding, rather a Vic Fidelli one and his popularity should ensure he holds this. Unlike in Southern Ontario, this riding has a long history of voting for local candidate rather than party and has thus gone mostly Liberal federally in the past 30 years, but mostly PC provincially.|
|As long as Vic Fedeli is running here, it will remain a PC riding. He is very popular.|