Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Nipissing


Prediction Changed
2017-12-10 21:14:23
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

FEDELI, VIC

GIROUX, HENRI

GLASS, STEPHEN

HOLLIDAY, TREVOR

KEEVIL, BOND

RIVARD, KRIS


Incumbent(s):
    Nipissing
   Victor Fedeli

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):75060


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

8382 26.78%
13085 41.81%
8057 25.74%
1188 3.80%
OTHERS 585 1.87%
Total Transposed 31297

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Nipissing

8382
13085
8057
1188
Others585
Total Transposed31297


Federal Election Result (2015):

Anthony Rota
2535751.90%
Jay Aspin **
1432529.30%
Kathleen Jodouin
793616.20%
Nicole Peltier
12572.60%


 

25/05/2018 Shawn O'Donnell
142.114.229.0
The typical Liberal vote is now turning or thinking of turning to the NDP. That is likely to continue because this riding has a significant amount of Government employees who are terrified of Doug Ford and realize the Liberals are done. If you look at the results of the last election if the Liberal vote strategically turns to the NDP the PC's are in trouble.
5/23/2018 Dr. Bear
184.175.13.231
I've noticed some significant differences from previous elections. First: far fewer lawn signs than previous. It's almost as if everyone is blase about this election. Second: usually there are tons of Fedeli signs, a lot of liberal signs and a smattering of NDP signs. This time there are a handful of Glass signs, many (but not lots) of Fedeli signs and tons of Giroux signs, but mostly in the area north of downtown (far fewer elsewhere). While I still say Fedeli has this, Giroux might get close enough to make this race uncomfortable.
11/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
50.92.139.181
Vic Fedeli is a lock. Only thing worth debating is whether his personal popularity can beat the regional polling numbers by enough to propel him past 50% - I would say yes.
06/05/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
Ever since Mike Harris, the provincial Tory will has sure been counterintuitively strong in Nipissing; though 2014's result was pretty weak (likely on external grounds) for Fedeli, a nearly perfectly split opposition soothed the wound. Through that split, I *could* be willing to monitor the potential for the NDP's Giroux--but only if Fedeli weren't running; and unfortunately, unlike the federal seat, the provincial seat doesn't include Temiskaming Shores. (Really: in recent history, has the NDP *ever* gotten above third in Nipissing? It came close by a point in '14.)
21/04/2018 Craig
130.18.104.137
Without Vic Fedeli, this would be a (fringe) potential Liberal pickup. Although the PC's dominate most of the rural parts of the riding, North Bay is the least working class of the northern Ontario cities, and is less receptive of Doug Ford's populism, hence the Liberals often do quite well there even if you wouldn't expect it. It's also the worst riding for the NDP in northern Ontario.
However, Fedeli is extremely popular here, and he should breeze to re-election both on the urban popularity and the rural vote by default. He briefly considered a run for Premier but the province-wide dynamics didn't support such. Nonetheless, he's probably looking at a senior cabinet post if they form government...
24/03/2018 NJam101
63.135.16.204
Vic Fedeli will win because he is very popular in North Bay and is even respected throughout Northern Ontario. He will get about half of the votes which is what Mike Harris got here as Premier.
20/03/2018 MF
69.158.152.4
No way the locally popular Vic Fedeli loses his seat. Nipissing stays Tory blue.
18/03/2018 John K.
99.225.20.132
What's interesting here is that this seat went more than 60% for Elliott over Ford, and is a big government/university/college town - not working class/blue collar like the other major cities in the North. If anything, this is a seat I can see doing worse thanks for Ford, not better. Potential for a Liberal gain here, oddly enough.
14/03/2018 Dr.Bear
204.187.20.95
Interestingly there is a lot of chatter around town about how people like and respect Vic Fedeli (even people who really disagree with his politics still like him) but really can't stand Doug Ford. While I don't think the PCs will lose this seat, I'd be curious to see if there is an increase in voter sit-out from some PC members.
28/02/2018 Brainstrained
23.233.116.211
No need to have an election here. This is Vic's riding, no matter how crazy the PC party is.
02/02/2018 Stevo
165.225.76.126
Well Vic is out of the permanent leadership race but will be a very senior Cabinet minister should the PCs win, possibly Deputy Premier.
29/01/2018 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Its now quite possible he could be the next PC leader and maybe premier. Either way Vic Fideli has enough popularity in this riding he should hold it even if their current troubles cost them the election overall.
27/01/2018 Teddy Boragina
69.165.136.155
This is Vic's riding, he will win it regardless of if his stint in leadership is temporary or full time.
17/12/2017 Dr. Bear
107.179.237.164
I have said many times that Nipissibg is. Vic Fidelli riding, not a PC riding. So long as the former mayor runs, he will win for which ever party.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
This is not a PC riding, rather a Vic Fidelli one and his popularity should ensure he holds this. Unlike in Southern Ontario, this riding has a long history of voting for local candidate rather than party and has thus gone mostly Liberal federally in the past 30 years, but mostly PC provincially.
10/12/2017
99.228.128.85
As long as Vic Fedeli is running here, it will remain a PC riding. He is very popular.



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