Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:20:27

Constituency Profile



Crawford, Stephen

   Hon Kevin Daniel Flynn

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):119649

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

24717 49.40%
18921 37.81%
3994 7.98%
1887 3.77%
OTHERS 518 1.04%
Total Transposed 50037

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed50037

Federal Election Result (2015):

John Oliver
Terence Young **
Che Marville
David Doel


18/01/2018 B.S.
For '905' ridings not won by the PC's in 2014, under the new boundaries, Oakville got amongst the highest 'percentage' of Tory votes. Only behind Markham-Unionville and Oak Ridges, but higher than the other Halton ridings that had incumbents. Unlike all other ridings, there was no PC vote collapse between the last two elections either, suggesting that there could even be growth for them here. This will no doubt be a target seat for Patrick Brown.
21/12/2017 Random Voter
Has Kevin Flynn even declared he's running again or not? Regardless, Oakville is up for grabs. While respected yes, his vote percentage has never increased (highest is 49% I believe), which suggests he doesn't have Gary Carr-level popularity here that could maybe withstand a change in tide. The only direction he can go is down, dragged by Kathleen Wynne's sagging poll numbers. Since Oakville won't vote for a unpalatable Leader, I'd favour the PC's this go around. But it's early, so things can always change before June 7th.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Of the four Halton ridings, this is the only one I think the Liberals have a shot at holding although it will be an uphill battle. Kevin Flynn is a popular MPP, but local candidates count for less in the 905 belt while the Liberals are deeply unpopular provincially and the PCs have by and large avoided doing anything stupid to land them in trouble. So favours PCs now, but if things tighten Liberals still might have a shot.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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