Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Oakville North-Burlington

Prediction Changed
2018-03-26 22:00:00

Constituency Profile









   Hon Indira Naidoo-Harris

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):114378

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

19644 46.14%
15671 36.81%
4998 11.74%
1441 3.38%
OTHERS 824 1.93%
Total Transposed 42577

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed42577

Federal Election Result (2015):

Pam Damoff
Effie Triantafilopoulos
Janice Best
Adnan Shahbaz
David Clement


31/05/2018 CM
Given the Liberal collapse, it's hard to see them holding on to a seat they've only held for one-term under Indira Naidoo-Harris; previously, this area was held by PC MPP Ted Chudleigh from 1995 to 2015.
It'll return to PC hands with previously federal nominee Effie Triantafilopoulos taking down incumbent Naidoo-Harris and the NDP's Saima Zaidi by a considerable amount. Lock this one in.
31/05/2018 Kevin TO
Effie is a great candidate and she did well without winning in the last federal election. A lot of middle/upper middle class families in this riding should go blue with ease.
15/05/2018 MF
Unlike South Oakville, North Oakville is affluent but not
'elite.' Given the trend right now this should go PC.
10/05/2018 gorgo
pc signs are out in force in burlington portion of riding
15/04/2018 Stephen B
Stevo: sorry, I saw 'CPC' in your comments and thought you were referencing the 2015 federal election. But the reason it's relevant is because the candidate is the same in this race as in the 2015 federal one. And, like the Liberal candidate (about whom Kyle H makes a good point), she is not local.
The Tories will win other Halton ridings (Milton for sure, and Burlington) before this one, and a lot of Peel. But A.S.'s description of the north Oakville suburbs as sprawly and more Mississauga-like is actually pretty convincing. These are higher-income neighbourhoods. But he's right that they might be more typically suburban and less offended by Ford than some. Certainly Ward 4, for instance, is appreciably younger than the town at large.
2018-04-1 A.S.
Actually, Stevo, despite the impression those waterfront estates might leave, Oakville's 'less-affluent' parts happen to be in the south: places like Kerr Village or White Oaks or even the maturing/moderating 50s60s70s-burbia of West Oakville. (*That's* the source of Kevin Flynn's to-date invincibility.) By comparison, Oakville North is relatively new and sprawly and anything that'd swing things Ford-ward here has less to do with income than with culture: polyglot 'new money' vs WASPy old money, that sort of thing. And then, as icing on the cake, throw in Burlington--including, in the middle of it all, Millcroft's sea of golf-burbia. Together with the fact that unlike Oakville itself, this territory *was* represented by the PCs for the duration of Dalton's reign (even if piggybacking on Tory-friendlier polls to the north), you can see how ON-B doesn't need a Doug Ford to grease its Tory-compatible pole, affluence or no affluence...
06/04/2018 Stevo
Clearly, when I typed CPC, I meant PC. Sorry, didn't proofread. Stephen's 'still Oakville' argument is pretty unconvincing. The riding isn't entirely Oakville and it consists of a less-affluent section of the city = more Ford friendly. If the PCs can't win here then please tell me which seats in the western GTA they *will* win, if any. I don't see the relevance of 2015 given that the CPC lost that election whereas the PCs are on track to win this one.
05/04/2018 Kyle H
The OLP candidate here is a Mississauga carpet bagger that was pushed by the central party over a great local candidate that local Liberals were rooting for. Regardless of the Ford saga, this riding lacks an incumbent and now a motivated volunteer base - I suspect maybe ON-B Libs will try to save Kevin Flynn or Eleanor McMahon before wasting an hour helping Tedjo.
30/03/2018 Stephen B
Stevo: it's still Oakville. It's still an affluent riding.
It's certainly not an 'easy' pickup for the Tories. Since you bring up the CPC, they couldn't win this in 2015 with the same candidate the OPC is trying now.
I would imagine neither party is viewing this as easy. The Liberals won't win it by ten points as they did in the last provincial election, but they will win it.
27/03/2018 Stevo
Stephen - this is primarily NORTH Oakville, far less affluent than the ritzy neighbourhoods close to the lake. Easy CPC pickup.
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford polls had brutal news for the Liberals in Halton: a net swing to the Tories of over 30 points, compared to the 2014 results.
One Liberal might find a magic formula to survive the wave, but at the moment, its far more likely that all 4 seats go to the PCs.
14/03/2018 Stephen B
This is mostly Oakville, and relatively educated and upper-class Oakville is not going to vote for Rob Ford. Neither will Burlington, for that matter: this riding went to Elliott in the leadership race in a ten-point spread. Both the Tory and Liberal candidates are actually from Mississauga, but the Tory candidate is not exactly exciting: she is a party operative who has lost nominations in other ridings at both the provincial and federal levels in weird circumstances.
A strong, well-known Tory candidate under a moderate leader would have overcome the 4,000 vote deficit here. The current Tory candidate under Rob Ford, won't.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Unlike Oakville where the Liberals may still have a shot if they can rebound in the polls, this is more favourable terrain for the PCs so unless they mess up badly, they should pick this up.

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