Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Oshawa


Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:20:48
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Chapman, Bob

French, Jennifer


Incumbent(s):
    Oshawa
   Jennifer K. French

   (83.91% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Whitby-Oshawa
   Lorne Coe

   (16.09% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):125771


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

9454 19.46%
15323 31.53%
21850 44.96%
1910 3.93%
OTHERS 58 0.12%
Total Transposed 48594

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Oshawa

7168
12156
18995
1569
Total Transposed39888

     Whitby-Oshawa

2286
3167
2854
341
Others58
Total Transposed8706


Federal Election Result (2015):

Colin Carrie **
2316238.20%
Mary Fowler
1933931.90%
Tito-Dante Marimpietri
1658827.30%
Michael Dempsey
15222.50%
David Gershuny
750.10%


 

08/01/2018 MF
69.159.31.101
Many came to the conclusion that Ed Broadbent's riding has become too much of a commuter suburb and too deindustrialized to vote NDP again. But then the NDP won a stunningly big victory here in the last provincial election. This was collateral damage in the Hudak campaign - even a lot of rather conservative trade unionists who embraced the Harris tax cuts couldn't stomach Hudak's attempt to emulate Scott Walker's Wisconsin. The question in this election is with Patrick Brown trying to regain the support of workers and trade unionists, will Oshawa return to the PCs? Or has Jennifer French developed enough of a local profile to hold on? A PC-NDP race that's TCTC for now.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
While historically an NDP riding, it has in recent federal and provincial elections save the 2014 provincial one generally narrowly gone Tory with the NDP putting up a strong second. NDP does well in the older parts of the city which has a lot of GM workers, but the newer subdivisions which are mostly your upper middle class families who commute daily to Toronto tend to favour the PCs. It seems when the Liberals fall here, the PCs as opposed to NDP benefits more so the better the Liberals do the better the NDP's chances are while the worse they do the more likely the PCs are to pick this up. Most Liberals here are your fiscally conservative Blue Liberals, not progressive ones so they swing between Liberals and PCs, not NDP and Liberals.



Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster