Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Ottawa South


Prediction Changed
2018-05-19 10:22:25
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

DAIGNEAULT, ROBERT

FAST, ELEANOR

FRASER, JOHN

HOWARD, KARIN

SCHRAM, LES

WASSLEN, LARRY


Incumbent(s):
    Ottawa South
   John Fraser

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):121894


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

23708 49.96%
15235 32.11%
5817 12.26%
2034 4.29%
OTHERS 656 1.38%
Total Transposed 47450

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Ottawa South

23708
15235
5817
2034
Others656
Total Transposed47450


Federal Election Result (2015):

David McGuinty **
3883160.10%
Dev Balkissoon
1571124.30%
George Brown
748011.60%
John Redins
18882.90%
Al Gullon
3660.60%
Damien Wilson
2370.40%
Larry Wasslen
1360.20%
0.20%


 

26/05/2018 EdV
76.66.87.90
An interesting week with some wildly different polls. For this week used the latest EKOS poll as my base for the numbers in the simulator. Then again accounting for the ground game we see some interesting movement.
Liberals: 16335 (33.4%)
Conservatives: 15950 (32.6%)
NDP: 13455 (27.5%)
Green: 3150 (6.4%)
The NDP are closing in and if the polling keeps trending in their favour we will potentially have a 3 way race. It does look though as if the NDP will have their best ever showing in this riding surpassing the 25% mark of the 1990 election.
As before though this is working from the premise of no Conservative ground game. If they are able to produce one this time their vote maxes out right now at around 18,113 giving them a fairly comfortable win here.
26/05/2018 rds
64.231.11.57
David Akin (Global News) has this as one of the top 20 tight ridings in Ontario...i.e. that it is closer than 5% between the top two parties with the NDP a close 3rd.
For the Liberals to hold out they really must finish the campaign provincially with 22%+ support in the polls...it is not reasonable for the Liberals to drop more than half their vote in Ontario yet in Ottawa South, they can just shed a few thousand, particularly when the NDP is eating deeply into the Liberal margin.
22/05/2018 RD
38.99.161.190
According to this CBC article 'party insiders' tout Ottawa South NDP candidate Eleanor Fast as 'a possible breakthrough candidate.' It sounds hard to believe, but if the NDP is really at 30% in Eastern Ontario (as the latest Ipsos poll says) they will have to win some more seats besides Oshawa and Ottawa Centre.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/horwath-ndp-visits-ottawa-first-time-campaign-1.4671224
19/05/2018 EdV
174.89.133.0
Another week down and a new Mainstreet poll has come out. After looking at it and comparing to the simulator of to close to call then adjusting for expected ground game performance we see the NDP vote increasing (which fits the narrative others are mentioning) The Liberal and Conservatives however are fighting it out with it now being to close to call. My vote numbers this week are:
Cons - 18,064 (37.1%)
Lib - 18,421 (37.8%)
NDP - 10,120 (20.7%)
Green - 2,112 (4.3%)
This is based on recent ground game performance, as noted before if the Conservatives generate a traditional ground game they will win this riding with their vote total maxing out at 20,543.
This is turning into one of the more interesting races to watch in this election.
18/05/2018 The Jackal
99.237.125.239
While this riding does have a PC past ( from the Bill Davis years) it will remain Liberal. It will be very close however.
18/05/2018 Nine times bitten, nine times shy
198.103.96.11
I've only evidence from the northern part of the riding (Alta Vista and Canterbury/Elmvale), but NDP strength is the highest I've seen in this riding in a long while (over that when Dr. Mazigh launched her high profile campaign federally a while back). NDP have too far to come to win, but critically, they eat away Liberal support, which is basically the only situation in the current environment where a Tory wins here.
If Horvath can keep this momentum going, she may, inter alia, deliver this to the PCs en route to wins elsewhere in the province. Would take an absolute collapse of the Liberal vote for the NDs to win here.
15/05/2018 rds
64.231.11.57
Well, signs are sprouting in Ottawa South as the parties ground game gets moving. I've seen NDP signs in unlikely places...Riverside Park, Hunt Club (of all places) while the PCs are running up a score in Riverside Park (Karin Howard's home turf) and Ellwood (the latter is normally very Liberal). I have not been in the Alta Vista area which is ground zero for Liberal Party support in this riding.
I'll take the opportunity to commend Ottawa99 and EdV for their interesting posts and methodology.
14/05/2018 J
184.145.139.67
EdV, drive around Elmvale Acres area and you will find some NDP signs. I don
13/05/2018 Joe
99.243.204.67
All major forecasters have PC's up substantially in Ottawa South. It's no longer even a toss-up, PC's are winning here.
13/05/2018 EdV
174.89.133.0
A week in and driving through the riding have seen plenty of Lib and Cons signs, not sure where J was seeing NDP signs though as I have only seen one so far on private property.
Based on historical trends and working with the last Mainstream poll for the east (L-22.7, C-41.4, N-28.9, G-5.6) that just came out here is my estimate the vote total if the election were held today:
Lib - 19751 (41.2%), PC - 18416(38%), NDP - 7286(15.2%), Green - 2464(5.1%).
The NDP in Ottawa South have historically under-performed their provincial average and regional average, with that vote going to the Liberals (have seen nothing in the last week that changes that assumption) then accounting for the traditional ground game capabilities of the parties have adjusted the vote accordingly.
As can be seen above the Liberal Ground game will overcome the Conservative advantage as historically the Conservative ground game has been non-existent in affecting their vote here. I also ran the numbers if the PC's develop a standard ground game and they would win this riding as their vote maxes out at 21148.
The way it is looking the outcome will be determined by the Conservatives, if they change their historical tendencies they win, if they can't they will lose.
13/05/2018 ottawa99
99.239.125.45
I'm not entirely convinced by the argument that Ottawa South will not be among one of the last few OLP seats because the Liberals did better in 22 other ridings in 2014. I think it's important to look at both ceilings and voter bases. In terms of ceilings, the Tories, provincial and federal, have only cracked 40% here once since the 1980s (1999 provincial). This includes two elections (1995 provincial, 2011 federal) in which they won large majorities in Ontario, and another (2008 federal) in which they won a plurality of seats in the province. The Liberals, meanwhile, have not fallen below 42%. Even in 1999, an unusually good election for the PCs in Ottawa, they only matched that here. A PC steal is certainly possible, as recent polls suggest that the Liberals could fall to the single digits. And an NDP steal is not completely out of the question, although I find it unlikely, even if they do continue t climb in the polls. But I think that this could be one of the last remaining Liberal seats in the province. TCTC for now.
11/05/2018 ottawa south voter
184.145.41.200
I note that in 2014, Ottawa South was the 23rd highest majority of Liberal ridings...22 were higher and 35 lower.
That means that if the Liberals get squeezed to a poor third place and fall lower than 23 seats in the legislature in 2018, there is a dramatic increase in the chance that this riding will vote PC.
10/05/2018 J
184.145.139.67
I live in Ottawa Centre, but a quick drive through Ottawa South and was impressed with the number of Ndp signs on private property...in a riding that is usually more of a Lib-Tory battle.
10/05/2018 rds
184.145.41.200
I note that in 2014 Ottawa South was the top 23rd riding in the province for the Liberals...but if the Liberals drop to 14 seats or so, this is likely not one of them. The campaign has just begun but the Liberals are already being squeezed by the NDP on the left and PCs on the right.
06/05/2018 EdV
174.89.133.0
Having lived in this riding now for several years and been through a few elections this is my take on this Riding at this time. It is and will continue to be Liberal until the Conservatives actually truly contest this riding.
The Liberals here have one of the strongest ground games in the country. As an example during the by-election that brought Fraser in as MPP the polls indicated that the Conservatives were in the lead going into election day. However, the Liberals ended up winning by a couple of thousand votes. Some may argue the polls were wrong but I honestly don't think so.
During that by-election the Liberals canvased the entire riding 3 times. They knew where their vote was. On election day when I left for work at 6 am I could see Liberal notices on doors. When I went to vote the Liberal scrutineers were busy at the polls. An hour before the polls closed I saw teams of Liberals in the neighborhood knocking on doors to get people out to vote. I saw and heard nothing from the Conservatives that whole campaign. I talked to others who lived in different parts of the Riding and they hadn't seen the Conservatives either. On election day no sign of Conservative scrutineers. I talked to both NDP and Liberal volunteers and none of them had seen the Conservatives at all active in the riding. I estimate the Liberals got about 5000 votes out beyond what was expected compared to at most 200 for the Conservatives. You don't win elections by giving up 4800 votes to your opponent.
The last provincial election the Conservatives did come around my area so it looked like they were canvassing however, their efforts were centered around convincing people to vote for them, not finding their vote. Again the Liberals knew where their vote was and they got it out. The Conservatives again didn't find their vote and didn't get it out(although they likely would have lost anyways as the Libs were leading in the polls here).
Given the way the polls are looking Fraser will be behind Howard throughout this election. However, it will remain Liberal until the Conservatives in Ottawa South learn how to find and get their vote out.
05/05/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
Even under non-family proxy John Fraser, the McGuinty machine has been remarkably resilient even at the worst of times; but aside from something like 2015 federally, the mandates can be struggling-to-crest-50% sluggish--and Premier Dalton's best share came in 1995, before he was party leader, let alone Premier. Which in a unfavourable provincial electoral atmosphere like 2018, could place even Ottawa South at PC-landslide peril--maybe the real question is what kind of counter-McGuinty resonance the Ford machine's legendary ethnoburban 'reach' will have in this most ethnoburban of Ottawa seats. And let's not forget how John Fraser was only barely byelected in the first place--sure, he still won; but if the Tories can come that close...
05/05/2018 John
70.29.97.18
In spite of all of the issues that have plagued the OLP, this is a rock solid red riding and the current MPP has served it well.
04/05/2018 Times are a changing
99.249.51.177
The last Conservative to represent this riding for the PC's was Claude Bennett. The PC's have had some excellent candidates but haven't been able to take it away from the Liberals. This was of course Premier McGuinty's riding and is now held by his former EA John Fraser.
Karin Howard is the candidate this time but rather than engaging older Tories she has decided to divide the riding association and alienate the older people that have for decades made donations, delivered literature, put up signs etc. The only chance she had of winning was to broaden the base with her people while also engaging the older PC members. She has failed miserably and will in my opinion lose the seat.
On paper she is a good candidate who has been twice elected to Ottawa City Council but has strong Liberal ties to the current Ottawa Mayor. These ties haven't played well in the Conservative Community. She won the nomination due to the influence of the former leader's people who secured a earlier nomination that the riding association of the day wanted.
She will increase the PC's vote but will fall short.
14/03/2018 MF
69.158.152.4
This is one of the safest Liberal ridings in Ontario and Doug Ford is likely to do worse in Ottawa than a generic PC leader where there is less of a constituency for his right-wing populist message.
2017-12-25 seasaw
99.225.226.230
While the PC's have a great candidate here, Karin Howard, they still won't be able to overcome the Liberals in this riding. This has been a strong Liberal riding for 30 years, they've won here even when they've been disastrous elsewhere. Nothing's going to change.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
The PCs have come close to winning this a few times, but no matter how bad things get for the Liberals they always find a way to pull this off. Never mind the demographics here are trending favourably towards the Liberals. This riding has a large Muslim population and with the amount of Islamophobia in the federal Tory party, this hurts the Conservative brand even if the PCs under Brown have gone out of their way to distance themselves from this. So this is one of the few ridings the Liberals outside the GTA can reliably count on no matter how bad things turn for them.



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