|Reaffirming my Liberal call here. It's a tough call as it looks like a real three way race. But this riding has proven to be 'fool's gold' for the PCs (there's a tendency of them to underperform compared to expectations) and the NDP has been traditionally very weak, even though they have a strong candidate. So this will be one of the few Liberals left.|
|CTV Ottawa have a story on their site on this riding reporting the Fraser released a poll showing the PC's up by about 4% with 34.3%Cons, 30.94 Libs, 27.26 NDP(site says 17% but think that is typo, and greens at 2.47%. I ran those number based on current ground game expectations and I get the following results:|
Libs: 16,847 (35.3%) (can go to 17750 with ground game)
Cons: 15,435 (32.4%)
NDP: 14,107 (29.6%)
Grren: 1,278 (2.7%)
If Fraser's numbers are right and the Conservative ground game is as weak as previous elections and Fraser's team is doing what they have done in the past this might turn into a Liberal hold. However, the advantage is still with the Conservatives at this time as they still have room to grow their vote.From:
|Just released news story from CTV (June 6-2018) 'In a series of tweets, Fraser urged voters to look at the poll data and vote strategically. The Liberal candidate took the drastic step of releasing losing polling data, showing the Liberals at 30.94% to PC candidate Karin Howard's 34.30% and NDP candidate Eleanor Fast's 17.26%. The Green Party candidate Les Scram is at 2.47%.|
|Here is my last vote predict based on the mainstreet poll placed into TCTC and then adjusting for the ground game. |
Cons: 18,090 (36.5%)
Libs: 17,097 (34.5%)
NDP: 12,213 (24.6%)
Green: 2,160 ( 4.4%)
The Conservative ground game still appears to be absent so this will be closer than the polls indicate however, with a 10 point lead in the polls it should be sufficient to turn this riding blue on election night. The NDP vote will be close to their best ever in this riding but will still leave them in 3rd place.
My final call for this race will be the Conservatives by around 1000 votes.
||Common Sens Supporter|
|John Fraser has a strong margin built up in 2014. While this will obviously be impacted, and this could be a hard to call split, he will hold the seat for a few reasons.|
1. NDP are never very strong in Ottawa South, but voters in Ottawa are fairly sophisticated. Anti-Ford vote will therefore logically stay aligned with John Fraser and the Ontario Liberal Party if local voters look at history and probability.
2. Ottawa South voters won't want to be governed by Ford Nation politics. PC candidate Karin Howard probably is barely comfortable with the politics she's running under.
3. Ground game. The Liberals in Ottawa South have long known how to get it done in campaign and on election day. This will not change.
4. John Fraser has been an excellent community MPP, as opposed to a Queens Park MPP in Ottawa. He always has been. He has deep ties and links to the community. As MPP. As the constituency office lead to the former MPP, Premier Dalton McGuinty. And as born and bred Ottawa South community person, himself, with long and deep ties to Alta Vista, Hunt Club Park, and Elmvale Acres. He has ties from CHEO to Canterbury Mustangs football. He's helped deliver important investments to the health infrastructure in Ottawa South: CHEO, Riverside Campus of Ottawa Hospital, Perley-Rideau Veterans' Home.
5. He is an exception to the local rule... John Fraser has not been in the Cabinet. It is harder to 'blame' him for central policies voters may not like. He has 'just' been a good community MPP, getting some interesing and practical legislation done, and a Parliamentary Secretary to some Ministers. Sophisticated voters in Ottawa South are going to recognize that he deserves to continue regardless of the central outcome. He's a good local Liberal MPP who can help to 'check' either an NDP free-spending government, or the Doug Ford populist cutters. That won't matter. I think Ottawa South will send John Fraser back and let him continue representing them intelligently and effectively, even in an opposition or 3rd party circumstance.
|Another week down and just a few days until the election. For the first time I see a lead for the Conservatives without a ground game. I know that both Liberals and NDP have visited my poll around the time they normal do so their ground games are going as expected. No sign of Conservative canvassers though so unable to tell yet if their ground game will be effective this time out.|
Here are my current numbers based off of CBC poll tracker (as the polls at the moment are volitile and plugging them into TCTC and then factoring for the ground game.)
Conservatives: 16,895 (33.8%) (up to 19,199 with full ground game)
Liberals: 16,498 (33.0%)
NDP: 14,387 (28.8%)
Green: 2160 (4.3%)
The NDP will have their best showing in Ottawa South ever even though they still look to be in 3rd here. The liberal ground game while showing for several elections being one of the best in the country will not likely save Fraser this time. The Liberals have fallen too far for them to hold this seat. In my models only the PC's still have any room for growth so the advantage is theirs at this time as they have the potential of around 19,000 votes.
|No Change, John Fraser will hold onto this seat because the overall population do not want cuts to healthcare, and mental health. He is very well liked in the riding for his past contributions for the hospital foundations.|
|An interesting week with some wildly different polls. For this week used the latest EKOS poll as my base for the numbers in the simulator. Then again accounting for the ground game we see some interesting movement.|
Liberals: 16335 (33.4%)
Conservatives: 15950 (32.6%)
NDP: 13455 (27.5%)
Green: 3150 (6.4%)
The NDP are closing in and if the polling keeps trending in their favour we will potentially have a 3 way race. It does look though as if the NDP will have their best ever showing in this riding surpassing the 25% mark of the 1990 election.
As before though this is working from the premise of no Conservative ground game. If they are able to produce one this time their vote maxes out right now at around 18,113 giving them a fairly comfortable win here.
|David Akin (Global News) has this as one of the top 20 tight ridings in Ontario...i.e. that it is closer than 5% between the top two parties with the NDP a close 3rd. |
For the Liberals to hold out they really must finish the campaign provincially with 22%+ support in the polls...it is not reasonable for the Liberals to drop more than half their vote in Ontario yet in Ottawa South, they can just shed a few thousand, particularly when the NDP is eating deeply into the Liberal margin.
|According to this CBC article 'party insiders' tout Ottawa South NDP candidate Eleanor Fast as 'a possible breakthrough candidate.' It sounds hard to believe, but if the NDP is really at 30% in Eastern Ontario (as the latest Ipsos poll says) they will have to win some more seats besides Oshawa and Ottawa Centre.|
|Another week down and a new Mainstreet poll has come out. After looking at it and comparing to the simulator of to close to call then adjusting for expected ground game performance we see the NDP vote increasing (which fits the narrative others are mentioning) The Liberal and Conservatives however are fighting it out with it now being to close to call. My vote numbers this week are:|
Cons - 18,064 (37.1%)
Lib - 18,421 (37.8%)
NDP - 10,120 (20.7%)
Green - 2,112 (4.3%)
This is based on recent ground game performance, as noted before if the Conservatives generate a traditional ground game they will win this riding with their vote total maxing out at 20,543.
This is turning into one of the more interesting races to watch in this election.
|While this riding does have a PC past ( from the Bill Davis years) it will remain Liberal. It will be very close however.|
||Nine times bitten, nine times shy|
|I've only evidence from the northern part of the riding (Alta Vista and Canterbury/Elmvale), but NDP strength is the highest I've seen in this riding in a long while (over that when Dr. Mazigh launched her high profile campaign federally a while back). NDP have too far to come to win, but critically, they eat away Liberal support, which is basically the only situation in the current environment where a Tory wins here. |
If Horvath can keep this momentum going, she may, inter alia, deliver this to the PCs en route to wins elsewhere in the province. Would take an absolute collapse of the Liberal vote for the NDs to win here.
|Well, signs are sprouting in Ottawa South as the parties ground game gets moving. I've seen NDP signs in unlikely places...Riverside Park, Hunt Club (of all places) while the PCs are running up a score in Riverside Park (Karin Howard's home turf) and Ellwood (the latter is normally very Liberal). I have not been in the Alta Vista area which is ground zero for Liberal Party support in this riding.|
I'll take the opportunity to commend Ottawa99 and EdV for their interesting posts and methodology.
|EdV, drive around Elmvale Acres area and you will find some NDP signs. I don|
|All major forecasters have PC's up substantially in Ottawa South. It's no longer even a toss-up, PC's are winning here.|
|A week in and driving through the riding have seen plenty of Lib and Cons signs, not sure where J was seeing NDP signs though as I have only seen one so far on private property.|
Based on historical trends and working with the last Mainstream poll for the east (L-22.7, C-41.4, N-28.9, G-5.6) that just came out here is my estimate the vote total if the election were held today:
Lib - 19751 (41.2%), PC - 18416(38%), NDP - 7286(15.2%), Green - 2464(5.1%).
The NDP in Ottawa South have historically under-performed their provincial average and regional average, with that vote going to the Liberals (have seen nothing in the last week that changes that assumption) then accounting for the traditional ground game capabilities of the parties have adjusted the vote accordingly.
As can be seen above the Liberal Ground game will overcome the Conservative advantage as historically the Conservative ground game has been non-existent in affecting their vote here. I also ran the numbers if the PC's develop a standard ground game and they would win this riding as their vote maxes out at 21148.
The way it is looking the outcome will be determined by the Conservatives, if they change their historical tendencies they win, if they can't they will lose.
|I'm not entirely convinced by the argument that Ottawa South will not be among one of the last few OLP seats because the Liberals did better in 22 other ridings in 2014. I think it's important to look at both ceilings and voter bases. In terms of ceilings, the Tories, provincial and federal, have only cracked 40% here once since the 1980s (1999 provincial). This includes two elections (1995 provincial, 2011 federal) in which they won large majorities in Ontario, and another (2008 federal) in which they won a plurality of seats in the province. The Liberals, meanwhile, have not fallen below 42%. Even in 1999, an unusually good election for the PCs in Ottawa, they only matched that here. A PC steal is certainly possible, as recent polls suggest that the Liberals could fall to the single digits. And an NDP steal is not completely out of the question, although I find it unlikely, even if they do continue t climb in the polls. But I think that this could be one of the last remaining Liberal seats in the province. TCTC for now.|
||ottawa south voter|
|I note that in 2014, Ottawa South was the 23rd highest majority of Liberal ridings...22 were higher and 35 lower. |
That means that if the Liberals get squeezed to a poor third place and fall lower than 23 seats in the legislature in 2018, there is a dramatic increase in the chance that this riding will vote PC.
|I live in Ottawa Centre, but a quick drive through Ottawa South and was impressed with the number of Ndp signs on private property...in a riding that is usually more of a Lib-Tory battle.|
|I note that in 2014 Ottawa South was the top 23rd riding in the province for the Liberals...but if the Liberals drop to 14 seats or so, this is likely not one of them. The campaign has just begun but the Liberals are already being squeezed by the NDP on the left and PCs on the right.|
|Having lived in this riding now for several years and been through a few elections this is my take on this Riding at this time. It is and will continue to be Liberal until the Conservatives actually truly contest this riding.|
The Liberals here have one of the strongest ground games in the country. As an example during the by-election that brought Fraser in as MPP the polls indicated that the Conservatives were in the lead going into election day. However, the Liberals ended up winning by a couple of thousand votes. Some may argue the polls were wrong but I honestly don't think so.
During that by-election the Liberals canvased the entire riding 3 times. They knew where their vote was. On election day when I left for work at 6 am I could see Liberal notices on doors. When I went to vote the Liberal scrutineers were busy at the polls. An hour before the polls closed I saw teams of Liberals in the neighborhood knocking on doors to get people out to vote. I saw and heard nothing from the Conservatives that whole campaign. I talked to others who lived in different parts of the Riding and they hadn't seen the Conservatives either. On election day no sign of Conservative scrutineers. I talked to both NDP and Liberal volunteers and none of them had seen the Conservatives at all active in the riding. I estimate the Liberals got about 5000 votes out beyond what was expected compared to at most 200 for the Conservatives. You don't win elections by giving up 4800 votes to your opponent.
The last provincial election the Conservatives did come around my area so it looked like they were canvassing however, their efforts were centered around convincing people to vote for them, not finding their vote. Again the Liberals knew where their vote was and they got it out. The Conservatives again didn't find their vote and didn't get it out(although they likely would have lost anyways as the Libs were leading in the polls here).
Given the way the polls are looking Fraser will be behind Howard throughout this election. However, it will remain Liberal until the Conservatives in Ottawa South learn how to find and get their vote out.
|Even under non-family proxy John Fraser, the McGuinty machine has been remarkably resilient even at the worst of times; but aside from something like 2015 federally, the mandates can be struggling-to-crest-50% sluggish--and Premier Dalton's best share came in 1995, before he was party leader, let alone Premier. Which in a unfavourable provincial electoral atmosphere like 2018, could place even Ottawa South at PC-landslide peril--maybe the real question is what kind of counter-McGuinty resonance the Ford machine's legendary ethnoburban 'reach' will have in this most ethnoburban of Ottawa seats. And let's not forget how John Fraser was only barely byelected in the first place--sure, he still won; but if the Tories can come that close...|
|In spite of all of the issues that have plagued the OLP, this is a rock solid red riding and the current MPP has served it well.|
||Times are a changing|
|The last Conservative to represent this riding for the PC's was Claude Bennett. The PC's have had some excellent candidates but haven't been able to take it away from the Liberals. This was of course Premier McGuinty's riding and is now held by his former EA John Fraser.|
Karin Howard is the candidate this time but rather than engaging older Tories she has decided to divide the riding association and alienate the older people that have for decades made donations, delivered literature, put up signs etc. The only chance she had of winning was to broaden the base with her people while also engaging the older PC members. She has failed miserably and will in my opinion lose the seat.
On paper she is a good candidate who has been twice elected to Ottawa City Council but has strong Liberal ties to the current Ottawa Mayor. These ties haven't played well in the Conservative Community. She won the nomination due to the influence of the former leader's people who secured a earlier nomination that the riding association of the day wanted.
She will increase the PC's vote but will fall short.
|This is one of the safest Liberal ridings in Ontario and Doug Ford is likely to do worse in Ottawa than a generic PC leader where there is less of a constituency for his right-wing populist message.|
|While the PC's have a great candidate here, Karin Howard, they still won't be able to overcome the Liberals in this riding. This has been a strong Liberal riding for 30 years, they've won here even when they've been disastrous elsewhere. Nothing's going to change.|
|The PCs have come close to winning this a few times, but no matter how bad things get for the Liberals they always find a way to pull this off. Never mind the demographics here are trending favourably towards the Liberals. This riding has a large Muslim population and with the amount of Islamophobia in the federal Tory party, this hurts the Conservative brand even if the PCs under Brown have gone out of their way to distance themselves from this. So this is one of the few ridings the Liberals outside the GTA can reliably count on no matter how bad things turn for them.|