Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Parkdale-High Park


Prediction Changed
2017-12-06 00:02:35
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Guerrera, Nadia

Karpoche, Bhutila


Incumbent(s):
    Parkdale-High Park
   Cheri DiNovo

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):105103


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17841 39.56%
5787 12.83%
18385 40.77%
2479 5.50%
OTHERS 601 1.33%
Total Transposed 45093

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Parkdale-High Park

17841
5787
18385
2479
Others601
Total Transposed45093


Federal Election Result (2015):

Arif Virani
2462342.00%
Peggy Nash **
2356640.20%
Ian Allen
764113.00%
Adam Phipps
17433.00%
Mark Jeftovic
6101.00%
Terry Parker
1910.30%
Lorne Gershuny
1000.20%
Carol Royer
930.20%


 

15/01/2018 R.O.
24.146.17.189
This riding is a big test for the ndp. I think the ndp would have had a better chance holding the riding in a by election scenario. and if they had won that would of allowed new mpp a chance to build some profile in the riding . but since Dinovo stayed longer they have to hold it during a general election and that could prove more challenging.
2017-12-26 Craig
24.213.108.184
Given how close this riding was in 2014, the federal results in 2015 and the retirement of Cheri DiNovo, I think this is the easiest Liberal pickup in Ontario, and perhaps one of the only pickup opportunities. Without DiNovo, they would have certainly won this seat in 2014.
Condos keep going up and gentrification continues here, and those voters tend to support Kathleen Wynne even if her province-wide approval is horrendous, as she is more suited to urban progressives than Andrea Horwath. The PC's are also a non-factor here and may actually finish below the Greens, but that doesn't mean that the ?strategic voting? factor can't come into play either. For those reasons, I think this flips red, even if they lose province-wide.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
Since this election is shaping up as anything-but-Wynne, I think the NDP will be safe here as they already hold it. I wonder what factor DiNovo retiring will have, though.
21/12/2017 ML
69.77.168.131
Too close to call. Both the Liberal and NDP candidates look very impressive. The Liberals nearly defeated high profile Cheri Di Novo in 2014 with the threat of a Hudak government. However, with Patrick Brown's apparent shift to the centre I'm not sure if there will be as much strategic voting in 2018. A big question mark will be how strong the PC campaign is, and whether or not the PCs can pick away Liberal votes in more wealthy pockets of the riding around Bloor West and Humber.
20/12/2017 seasaw
99.225.226.230
With Cheri DiNovo not running this time and the PC's having no chance in this riding, it makes it ripe for the picking for the Liberals. We have to wait and see how the campaign is turning out. If it's a close contest between the Liberals and the PC's then, it'll be a Liberal gain. If the Liberals are well ahead, NDP will keep it, they will probably keep if the PC's are well ahead as well, it's kind of weird, but it's true
05/12/2017
69.157.74.117
Bhutila Karpoche is the favourite in this race. She has served as Cheri DiNovo's Executive Assistant for years and has deep ties to the riding through the Tibetan community. She is also already out there campaigning and showing up at every community event.



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