Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Parry Sound-Muskoka


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:36:12
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

HORVATH, ERIN

MACDONALD, JOSHUA

MILLER, NORM

MOLE, JEFF

PACKER, CHRIS

RHODES, BRENDA

RICHTER, MATT


Incumbent(s):
    Parry Sound-Muskoka
   Norm Miller

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):94400


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

10158 26.25%
15761 40.73%
4999 12.92%
7484 19.34%
OTHERS 296 0.76%
Total Transposed 38698

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Parry Sound-Muskoka

10158
15761
4999
7484
Others296
Total Transposed38698


Federal Election Result (2015):

Tony Clement **
2220643.30%
Trisha Cowie
1993738.90%
Matt McCarthy
518310.10%
Glen Hodgson
37047.20%
Duncan Bell Pirate/Pirate
1210.20%
Gordie Merton
880.20%
Albert Gray Smith
400.10%
0.10%


 

23/04/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
The Greens are indeed a potential-#2 sleeper factor here--believe it or not, Matt Richter beat Mike Schreiner by a hair for 2014's best GPO share. But, come now; this is Parry Sound-Muskoka. Even if Norm Miller's share was shockingly low by his standards in 2014, he's not going to budge under the current climate unless a killer debate performance by Schreiner (presuming he's included) results in a Green seat windfall.
21/04/2018 PM
174.115.72.156
Do the Greens finish 2nd here?? Liberals will lose some votes and depending on where they go, is who will finish 2nd.
NDP and GPO will benefit regardless from the 'I can't vote Liberal this time' voters.
19/01/2018 Craig
24.213.108.184
While not the safest seat for conservative parties, they won here in tough elections (2015 Federal and 2014 Provincial) and should easily hold once again. Even if Norm Miller were to leave politics, a new PC candidate would be strongly favoured.
Even though they don't have some federal issues like the gun registry hanging down their necks, the Liberals' strong push with urban agendas and with younger and highly educated voters make them much less popular here, where retirees are more prevalent and education levels are much lower than the provincial average. The NDP have never been relevant here either. That means it should stay blue indefinitely.
20/12/2017 Dr. Bear
75.119.248.107
In a good year for the Liberals after Norm Miller retires, this riding would probably swing to team red. Neither of these things are happening this year. Solid win for the PCs.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Another very safe PC riding with a long history so cannot see them losing this one as they've held it pretty much continously in the last 60 years through good and bad times.
12/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
PS-M has been Tory since creation in 1999; and just as the NDP are unlikely to lose any urban ridings they hold now (that aren't heavily redistricted), the Tories are unlikely to lose any rural ridings they hold.
10/12/2017 J.B.
216.211.115.100
Norm Miller won this seat in a 2001 by-election and he's held it ever since. This should not be considered a northern Ontario riding, but nonetheless, I don't see it changing hands.



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