Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Parry Sound-Muskoka


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:36:12
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Richter, Matt


Incumbent(s):
    Parry Sound-Muskoka
   Norm Miller

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):94400


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

10158 26.25%
15761 40.73%
4999 12.92%
7484 19.34%
OTHERS 296 0.76%
Total Transposed 38698

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Parry Sound-Muskoka

10158
15761
4999
7484
Others296
Total Transposed38698


Federal Election Result (2015):

Tony Clement **
2220643.30%
Trisha Cowie
1993738.90%
Matt McCarthy
518310.10%
Glen Hodgson
37047.20%
Duncan Bell Pirate/Pirate
1210.20%
Gordie Merton
880.20%
Albert Gray Smith
400.10%
0.10%


 

20/12/2017 Dr. Bear
75.119.248.107
In a good year for the Liberals after Norm Miller retires, this riding would probably swing to team red. Neither of these things are happening this year. Solid win for the PCs.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Another very safe PC riding with a long history so cannot see them losing this one as they've held it pretty much continously in the last 60 years through good and bad times.
12/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
PS-M has been Tory since creation in 1999; and just as the NDP are unlikely to lose any urban ridings they hold now (that aren't heavily redistricted), the Tories are unlikely to lose any rural ridings they hold.
10/12/2017 J.B.
216.211.115.100
Norm Miller won this seat in a 2001 by-election and he's held it ever since. This should not be considered a northern Ontario riding, but nonetheless, I don't see it changing hands.



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