Parry Sound-Muskoka

	HORVATH, ERIN
	MACDONALD, JOSHUA
	MILLER, NORM
	MOLE, JEFF
	PACKER, CHRIS
	RHODES, BRENDA
	RICHTER, MATT

Incumbent(s):

	Parry Sound-Muskoka    Norm Miller    (100.00% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			94400
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		10158	26.25%
		15761	40.73%
		4999	12.92%
		7484	19.34%
	OTHERS	296	0.76%
	Total Transposed	38698
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Parry Sound-Muskoka
		10158
		15761
		4999
		7484
	Others	296
	Total Transposed	38698
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Tony Clement **
		22206	43.30%
		Trisha Cowie
		19937	38.90%
		Matt McCarthy
		5183	10.10%
		Glen Hodgson
		3704	7.20%
		Duncan Bell Pirate/Pirate
		121	0.20%
		Gordie Merton
		88	0.20%
		Albert Gray Smith
		40	0.10%
			0.10%

	02/06/2018	PM 174.115.69.77
Agree with A.S. that Miller should be safe here. Liberals will lose votes but it will be split 3 ways (PC, NDP & Green). PC's win and Richter finishes 2nd. It will be interesting to see how the NDP do here.
	23/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
The Greens are indeed a potential-#2 sleeper factor here--believe it or not, Matt Richter beat Mike Schreiner by a hair for 2014's best GPO share. But, come now; this is Parry Sound-Muskoka. Even if Norm Miller's share was shockingly low by his standards in 2014, he's not going to budge under the current climate unless a killer debate performance by Schreiner (presuming he's included) results in a Green seat windfall.
	21/04/2018	PM 174.115.72.156
Do the Greens finish 2nd here?? Liberals will lose some votes and depending on where they go, is who will finish 2nd. NDP and GPO will benefit regardless from the 'I can't vote Liberal this time' voters.
	19/01/2018	Craig 24.213.108.184
While not the safest seat for conservative parties, they won here in tough elections (2015 Federal and 2014 Provincial) and should easily hold once again. Even if Norm Miller were to leave politics, a new PC candidate would be strongly favoured. Even though they don't have some federal issues like the gun registry hanging down their necks, the Liberals' strong push with urban agendas and with younger and highly educated voters make them much less popular here, where retirees are more prevalent and education levels are much lower than the provincial average. The NDP have never been relevant here either. That means it should stay blue indefinitely.
	20/12/2017	Dr. Bear 75.119.248.107
In a good year for the Liberals after Norm Miller retires, this riding would probably swing to team red. Neither of these things are happening this year. Solid win for the PCs.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
Another very safe PC riding with a long history so cannot see them losing this one as they've held it pretty much continously in the last 60 years through good and bad times.
	12/12/2017	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
PS-M has been Tory since creation in 1999; and just as the NDP are unlikely to lose any urban ridings they hold now (that aren't heavily redistricted), the Tories are unlikely to lose any rural ridings they hold.
	10/12/2017	J.B. 216.211.115.100
Norm Miller won this seat in a 2001 by-election and he's held it ever since. This should not be considered a northern Ontario riding, but nonetheless, I don't see it changing hands.