Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Brampton East

Prediction Changed
2018-05-17 08:26:00

Constituency Profile









   Jagmeet Singh

   (89.20% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Harinder Malhi

   (10.80% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):99712

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

8941 30.91%
4029 13.93%
15358 53.10%
583 2.02%
OTHERS 10 0.03%
Total Transposed 28921

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed26017


Total Transposed2904

Federal Election Result (2015):

Raj Grewal
Naval Bajaj
Harbaljit Singh Kahlon
Kyle Lacroix


06/06/2018 Bram East voter
Afterthe biggest nomination. This seat going to PC. BUT NEW pc candidate need to work hard to pull the votes. As party has 18K memember in riding if only supporter vot for sudddp verma than PCWILL WIN THE nomination.
NDP is also putting lots of effort but due to anti Indian idiology of his brother will dmage to gurratan singh in election.
Also liberal candidate is very known and popular in community.
PC candidate sudeep is very nice person and party leader is fully supporting him.
This is going to be very tight race.
29/05/2018 Bram East Voter
NDP Candidate Gurratan Singh has shown disrespect to Police. His Brother Jagmeet singh has several time spoken against hindu and those voter will not give vote to Gurratan Singh. Very high no. of voters are Hindu. Also Liberal Candidate Campaign is very strong compare to others. Also Many Voters not like Doug Ford and will think in Liberal any how not winning it is safe to give this seat to Liberal which help to create Minority Government.
29/05/2018 The Jackal
I have no doubt this riding will go orange as the numbers seem to di are it. It doesn't hurt that the candidate is the federal NDP leader's brother.
5/16/2018 Cal
That changes everything. Again.
5/16/2018 GritBusters
Easy NDP hold.
TCTC for Brampton East is easily the most nonsensical prediction on this site.
The Liberal Party will be lucky to win half of what they won province-wide in 2014, which also saw the Tories take a laughable 13% in this riding.
Ford himself is less popular among South Asian voters than he is among White or Chinese voters.
Given all of this, the idea of a 25 point swing against JAGMEET SING'S BROTHER in an election in which the NDP is polling at near-1990 levels and rising is about as plausible as the Bloc Qu
5/16/2018 Brendan
The PC candidate has dropped out, which should put this solidly in the NDP column
5/16/2018 Danny
I expect the NDP to win more than 1 of the Brampton seats. But for sure this one. Sandhu dropped out today. So I think it's a near lock for the brother of the incumbent with 50%+ of the vote. Especially with the NDP up big from their 2014 numbers.
5/16/2018 KXS
I think it's time to call this one of the NDP. Here is why:
1. The party is polling above 30% province-wide, they are not doing too bad in the GTA/905 polls (though support concentrated in Brampton and Oshawa).
2. Horwath has a platform tailored to win Brampton seats.
3. This is not a right-leaning riding. In 2011, the CPC narrowly lost the transposed riding. In 2014, this was one of the worst ridings for the PCs.
4. It helps that the Dipper candidate is the brother of Jagmeet Singh and one of his key organizers.
The Tories are at landslide support in the GTA...this seat will go blue
17/04/2018 Joe
For me, this is I think the most interesting riding to consider right now...the rest of the Peel region seems fairly likely to go PC in June (although Malton is close). But Brampton East is an intriguing case, in that the NDP would be strongly favoured based on past results. Then again, that was with Jagmeet Singh as their candidate and who knows how good of a campaigner Gurratan would be this time around (or even if he'll be nominated)? Besides, the strong ethnic vote in this area that also first propelled the elder Singh to national political fame could skew highly towards Ford's style this time around, so given the surrounding districts' winds I'm not ready to lay my hands down for the NDP here just yet. Any thoughts?
15/04/2018 Frank Saptel
The Bramptons are very much in play for the NDP. Elsewhere, that may be debatable, but here they show great strength,
07/04/2018 A.S.
Even if Jagmeet's now federal leader, we should now learn from 2015's federal result (as opposed to 2014's provincial result, particularly in neighbouring ridings) that his coattails can have their limitations--and it's an open question as to whether 'love and courage' homilies are enough of a match for Ford Nation ethnoburban ruthlessness. But still, if you're going to play up the virtues of the Tory contender here, it's not like singling him out as a 'Real Estate agent' will help any...
05/04/2018 C. H.
Jagmeet's brother might not be as popular or well-known as Jagmeet, but the Singh name plus being a suburban riding with a high south Asian population will almost certainly make this stay in the NDP fold.
04/04/2018 Dr.Bear
One of the youngest ridings in the province (in the country maybe?); a demographic that the NDP has been doing much better with than Ford. Coupled that with with Jagmeet's brother running here (and the political machine he has put together), this leads me to think that team orange might be able to hold on. I give a tepid NDP call.
04/04/2018 Call me Cal
The NDP will do everything in its power to hold this seat. It seems like a easy save.
28/03/2018 Eric C
With Jagmeet's continued popularity and his brother looking to get the candidacy here, I find it hard to see this one going elsewhere
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
If the last election was won on the personal popularity of Jagmeet Singh, this riding could go Tory. If it was won on the popularity of the NDP, it stays NDP. Either way, or any shade of grey in between, it won't go Liberal.
25/03/2018 jeff316
Of course Ford didn't do that well with PC party members out here! That's the point - Ford is not well-liked by the members of the party. He's not representative of the political elite. Every day voters don't join parties - and Ford appeals across party lines, particularly in communities like this one. Whether they run Jagmeet's brother or not, this is a sure-fire NDP loss.
12/03/2018 MF
I'm going to go out on a limb and make an NDP prediction here.
One thing that was interesting in the PC leadership race was that Doug Ford actually didn't do all that well in Brampton (and lost Brampton East). So there doesn't seem to be as much of a base for Fordism as some would expect.
Jagmeet Singh has cultivated a pretty strong base of support for the NDP here, and although this looks like more of Jagmeet Singh riding than an NDP riding, he may have enough coat-tails to keep this in the NDP column, particularly when the Liberals don't look like they'll be making major gains in this election.
19/01/2018 Bill
With Jagmeet leaving, it will be interesting to see who takes this seat, but we can be assured that they will try their best to maintain this seat. The PC's had one of the largest nominations in Canadian history and elected a Real Estate agent to represent them. If the Liberals can increase their numbers in the Polls, they might be able to recruit a star candidate to run in a riding they must win. The NDP will also target this seat to maintain their presence in the 905. Ultimately the vote split will allow the PC candidate to win here.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
PC party reported 20,000 people voted in their nomination meeting in this riding. Will make it interesting between all three parties. But I think this could even end up being a Liberal-Pc race with Jagmeet Singh gone.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
With Singh no longer running here, the question becomes is his coattails large enough to keep this for the NDP. The Liberals have generally been strong in Brampton so might be one of the few cases they gain seats even if they lose provincewide. Also the PCs could come up the middle with strong splits never mind Patrick Brown does have much stronger connections with the Indo-Canadian community than past PC leaders have although historically the PCs have not been done particularly well amongst Indo-Canadians. At this point we will have to wait until we get closer to the election to see whom has the edge here.
09/12/2017 KXS
This will be interesting to watch.
Jagmeet Singh is now the federal NDP leader. Can a New Democrat hold this riding on his coattails?
This is one of the weakests riding for the PCs in the 905. However, the PCs are talking about auto insurance reform and health care spending - that could play well in this area.
The Liberals have a strong base in this riding and are usually the 'default' choice in Peel Region. Could this be a rare instance where they pick up a seat while losing the election?

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