Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

St. Catharines

Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:36:34

Constituency Profile



    St. Catharines
   James J. Bradley

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):110596

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18809 41.20%
13386 29.32%
11231 24.60%
1751 3.84%
OTHERS 475 1.04%
Total Transposed 45652

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    St. Catharines

Total Transposed45652

Federal Election Result (2015):

Chris Bittle
Rick Dykstra **
Susan Erskine-Fournier
Jim Fannon
Saleh Waziruddin


15/01/2018 J.T. Edmunds
With Bradley already announcing he is running again, can safely say he will win here.
Without Jim Bradley running this would be a fight with the PC's being the main competitor.
However, there is a reason that Bradley's survived PC and NDP wave elections and he will again.
10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
*IF* Jim Bradley decides to run, he will win 100%.
*IF* Jim Bradley retires, this riding will fall to the PCs if they put together a good candidate and work hard.
Jim will win regardless of the broader result if he runs, he's been around forever, everyone knows him, and he's embedded in the socio-political fabric of the place.
If the PCs beat Jim it'll be a hell of a result and will most likely signal third-party status for the Libs.
15/12/2017 seasaw
Since Jim Bradley first got elected here, the province has had 8 different premiers but St Catharines has only had one MPP. If Bradley wasn't running, this would've been anyone's riding, but from what we know, he is running and this riding is his for as long as he wants it. Even if the Liberals run a disastrous, Campbell type campaign, even if they're reduced to just one seat, this would be the seat that they win
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Depends on whether voters vote based on candidate or based on party. Vote based on candidate should stay Liberal as Jim Bradley is very popular and has held this since 1977. But if goes on party, then PCs favoured as they only narrowly lost this federally in 2015 and the PCs provincially will likely outperform the federal Tories from 2015 barring a major mess up. Ironically a solid Tory lead in the polls might help Jim Bradley as those who like him personally but don't like the Wynne government will then be able to safely vote for him without invariably re-electing Wynne whereas if closer I think people are more likely to vote on party lines.
12/12/2017 Innocent bystander
To close to call.
MPP Jim Bradley has contested 13 provincial elections, winning the last 11 in a row, and recently celebrated 40 years at Queen's Park.
Even given the general unpopularity of the Liberals at the moment, his name on the ballot would give them a chance.
His retirement would make a Liberal shut-out in the Hamilton-Niagara region more likely than not.

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