Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

St. Catharines

Prediction Changed
2018-06-02 23:38:00

Constituency Profile











    St. Catharines
   James J. Bradley

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):110596

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18809 41.20%
13386 29.32%
11231 24.60%
1751 3.84%
OTHERS 475 1.04%
Total Transposed 45652

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    St. Catharines

Total Transposed45652

Federal Election Result (2015):

Chris Bittle
Rick Dykstra **
Susan Erskine-Fournier
Jim Fannon
Saleh Waziruddin


05/06/2018 prognosticator15
The Liberal vote has stabilized at a low level, and the incumbent will have some base support and more - from the Liberals who do not like NDP. However, without a solid base of Liberal-linked dependencies such as a large University (a nearby Brock is relatively small and its employees dispersed in several ridings), Bradley may not be able to get enough support based on personal following alone - something that can save Liberal incumbents in selected other ridings where progressives will listen to Wynne's call to elect more Liberals (ex. Del Duca for sure and perhaps McMeekin as well seem to be in a stronger position). This one indeed shapes to be a mostly PC-NDP two-way race. However, with polls and leftmedia overhyping NDP surge in a traditionally more small c conservative-friendly Niagara region, I would give PC an advantage here. It will be rather close, but PC is likely to win.
02/06/2018 Liam
With the NDP surging and Kathleen Wynne Conceding, it's likely this riding will go to the New Democrats
Horwath visited here on Friday after toying Niagara Centre...St Catharines will be a bell weather riding in this current election. A local poll show the NDP leading with the liberals in single digits ...thus an NDP pick up
01/06/2018 Niagara Politico
Early predictions of a Jim Bradley defeat seem to be falling on deaf ears here in St. Catharines. While a Liberal has held this riding for nearly 40 years, this is not a typical
31/05/2018 CM
As has been said, the Liberals are out of luck in St. Catharines. Jim Bradley is 3rd, and by a good distance. It's a likely toss-up between the NDP's Jennie Stevens and the PC's Sandie Bellows, both city councillors with relatively known names.
Local phone polls have the PCs and the NDPs nearly deadlocked. If any riding in Ontario has the chance to be the true bellwether in this election, it might be St. Catharines. Given that the PCs currently lead in their likelihood to grab a majority, I'd give them St. Catharines today. In a week, that could change.
31/05/2018 Niagara Politico
Early predictions of a Jim Bradley defeat seem to be falling on deaf ears here in St. Catharines. While a Liberal has held this riding for nearly 40 years, this is not a typical
31/05/2018 Niagara Observer
The NDP vote here in 2014 was nearly 25%. Provincially, their numbers are surging, while the Liberals have tanked, especially in this region. The NDP campaign is easily outsigning the other parties too - something I've never seen before in St. Catharines. The PCs are barely up from their 2014 numbers. On strict math, the NDP should win, but what's working even more to the NDP's advantage is that traditional anti-PC party strategic voters (a key Bradley voting block) are abandoning him for the first time to vote NDP to stop Ford. So, the Liberals are taking a double hit and the NDP is poised to benefit. I predict NDP 35-40%, PC 30-35%, and LIB 25-30%
26/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Jim Bradley definitely stayed an election too long ... he's far more likely to finish third than any other result.
Local phone poll shows Bradley in third place and the NDP leading the PC..It is going to be a wave election with the NDP taking seats they have never taken..Bradley held this in 1990
5/23/2018 The Lobster
An increasingly lost virtue is knowing when to retire. Much like Lorne Nystrom in '93, expect Bradley to run third. The NDP's surge, and abysmal polling numbers for Liberals in Hamilton/Niagara/SW Ontario, leaves it unlikely that any Liberal will be left standing. Star candidates don't count they way that they used to. The NDP's surge, and the likelihood that they will win any riding where it is marginal between NDP and Conservatives, gives them the edge.
20/05/2018 Bza
With the NDP doing quite well in the Hamilton and Niagara area, I expect this one to go NDP.
20/05/2018 The Jackal
Jim Bradley is done here. The Liberals are barely polling in the double digits in SW Ontario and a lot of it coming at the expense of the NDP. This will split the vote and allow the PC candidate to come up the middle.
Bradley is going down and apparently should have not run again...he will come in third place.sad way to end a long career..liberals will loan their votes to the NDP and the PC will lose a seat they should have won...
20/05/2018 MF
It's foolish to write Jim Bradley off completely - he does after all does know how to win elections - but it's really hard to see him winning in this climate. The Liberals were never the third place party in any of the provincial elections he's contested. He probably does have enough strength to prevent the NDP from taking this. Most likely this is a PC pickup.
15/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
'All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.' - Enoch Powell, 1977.
Whether you ask an Alberta PC or Gilles Duceppe, they will all tell you this is eventually true,
Latest polling has the 15-year old Liberal Government around 24% provincially, closer to 10% in this region. Bradley will do significantly better than that, but ultimately I think the game is finally up for him.
14/05/2018 Big C Conservative
Jim Bradley will win again sadly. There is no way anyone should be allowed to hold this post for 40 years. We need term limits. Also, the PC candidate is exceptionally weak and not even remotely conservative (aka Red Tory). Her voting record on St Catharines council will not endear her to real Conservatives in the riding. Most real Conservatives I know will not hold their nose and vote for Bellows just because she has somehow managed to run under the Ford Nation banner.
08/05/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals are polling in the single digits in Hamilton-Niagara.
29/04/2018 A.S.
Let's keep in mind that btw/ 2011's close call and 2014's safe hold, Jim Bradley's share only went up less than 3/4 of a point--it's just that the PCs collapsed and the NDP (running Councillor Jennie Stevens, who swept her SE St Kitts/Merritton municipal turf) went up. Stevens is running again; but so is Bradley's 2011 close-call PC challenger Sandy Bellows. Keep in mind, too, that this is where Patrick Brown's #MeToo comrade-in-arms Rick Dykstra stood as MP from 2006-2015. Take all that as a cue for three-way monitoring around these parts...
Jim Bradley is 73 (born Feb 1945) years old and there is talk he may not stand again...
24/03/2018 Doug.
I don't think Bradley is as safe as others are suggesting, in the 2011 election he only won by four points, in an election the Liberals won by two Province wide, currently the polling has the Liberals down double digits.
He's certainly more likely to survive a wave than virtually any other Liberal outside of Toronto/Ottawa but the Liberals are utterly toxic right now in this part of the province.
I think this is a toss up, purely determined on whether Bradley's personal appeal can overcome a totally toxic party brand.
20/03/2018 Stevo
Jim Bradley again? Isn't 40 years enough? Sure, odds are he'll win again but bear in mind that in all his 40 years as MP the Liberals have *never* faced an election with a likely sub-30% outcome and possible 3rd place in the legislature. St. Catherines is a demographically ideal target for Ford Nation and federally it is a swing(ish) riding. With Wynne's popularity at historic lows, maybe more than a few erstwhile Bradley supporters decide that it would be nice to have someone new representing them for a change?
20/02/2018 Tory in Dixie
I am going to say 'tossup'. Mr. Bradley has represented St. Catharines as MPP longer than 2 of the main federal party leaders have been alive. This can be both a plus or a negative, that his tenure is almost 41 years. Mr. Bradley will probably get a range of support ranging from the mid-30s to the low 40s percentage-wise, regardless of what happens province wide. Much will depend on how that other 57 - 65% breaks.
06/02/2018 Demarcoa
Jim Bradley is running again.
15/01/2018 J.T. Edmunds
With Bradley already announcing he is running again, can safely say he will win here.
Without Jim Bradley running this would be a fight with the PC's being the main competitor.
However, there is a reason that Bradley's survived PC and NDP wave elections and he will again.
10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
*IF* Jim Bradley decides to run, he will win 100%.
*IF* Jim Bradley retires, this riding will fall to the PCs if they put together a good candidate and work hard.
Jim will win regardless of the broader result if he runs, he's been around forever, everyone knows him, and he's embedded in the socio-political fabric of the place.
If the PCs beat Jim it'll be a hell of a result and will most likely signal third-party status for the Libs.
15/12/2017 seasaw
Since Jim Bradley first got elected here, the province has had 8 different premiers but St Catharines has only had one MPP. If Bradley wasn't running, this would've been anyone's riding, but from what we know, he is running and this riding is his for as long as he wants it. Even if the Liberals run a disastrous, Campbell type campaign, even if they're reduced to just one seat, this would be the seat that they win
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Depends on whether voters vote based on candidate or based on party. Vote based on candidate should stay Liberal as Jim Bradley is very popular and has held this since 1977. But if goes on party, then PCs favoured as they only narrowly lost this federally in 2015 and the PCs provincially will likely outperform the federal Tories from 2015 barring a major mess up. Ironically a solid Tory lead in the polls might help Jim Bradley as those who like him personally but don't like the Wynne government will then be able to safely vote for him without invariably re-electing Wynne whereas if closer I think people are more likely to vote on party lines.
12/12/2017 Innocent bystander
To close to call.
MPP Jim Bradley has contested 13 provincial elections, winning the last 11 in a row, and recently celebrated 40 years at Queen's Park.
Even given the general unpopularity of the Liberals at the moment, his name on the ballot would give them a chance.
His retirement would make a Liberal shut-out in the Hamilton-Niagara region more likely than not.

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