Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Sarnia-Lambton


Prediction Changed
2017-12-19 23:21:52
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Bruziewicz, Andy

Shaw, Kevin


Incumbent(s):
    Sarnia-Lambton
   Robert Bailey

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):106293


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

8152 17.86%
18722 41.01%
16327 35.77%
2109 4.62%
OTHERS 340 0.74%
Total Transposed 45650

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Sarnia-Lambton

8152
18722
16327
2109
Others340
Total Transposed45650


Federal Election Result (2015):

Marilyn Gladu
2256538.80%
Jason Wayne McMichael
1810231.10%
Dave McPhail
1585327.30%
Peter Smith
16052.80%


 

2017-12-26 Craig
24.213.108.184
All we know is this working class riding will NOT go Liberal. This was one of their worst results in 2014, and they may finish in single digits.
While this should favour the PC's especially since they are higher province-wide, there are a few reasons to be cautious. First, the NDP could very well gain votes from the Liberals and Greens if they are seen as the only option to block the PC's. Second, with Patrick Brown's hard push against social conservatives, it may alienate enough of them that they stay home, vote Trillium in protest or even jump to the NDP on economic and labour issues even if they are culturally conservative. Finally, how much will Andrea Horwath covet the blue-collar vote, or does she try hard to regain urban progressives lost in 2014? If she goes with the latter, she should have a big leadership advantage here. If Monte McNaughton was PC leader, this would likely be safe PC (but with big losses elsewhere).
This is a ?classic? Brexit/Trump riding, and how that demographic plays out will be key here. Too many questions to be answered.
2017-12-24 Teddy Boragina
157.52.13.39
Don't under-estimate the NDP in this riding. In the transposition, the party is only 5.2% behind, and they would gain faster than the Tories do if the Liberals do not do well.
19/12/2017 watching and waiting
24.146.57.112
Recent multi-billion $ investment in local industry will help to calm economic concerns for trades heavy local economy. Moderate pc platform should appeal to some disgruntled liberal voters. NDP candidate remains a question. Green and Trillium candidates should improve vote share. PC incumbent will hold riding.
18/12/2017 Dr. Bear
75.119.248.107
I was looking at previous election results and I think the Liberals have already hit bottom here. There doesn't appear to be a repository of Liberal voters staying home, and PC support seems more or less consistent. MP Bob Bailey has been around for a decade and obviously has a strong following. Now if the NDP start looking really good and start eroding PC support in the cities, then maybe this will be TCTC. However, for now it's a PC hold.
18/12/2017 seasaw
99.225.226.230
The PC's really have to mess up in order to lose here, we're talking like a Campbell type disaster. Last couple of times, it has been closer than it should be because of Hudak and Harper, neither one will be a factor this time around
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
Too close to call.
Outcome will be decided by the scale of the Liberal collapse in Southwestern Ontario; if it's big enough, the NDP could take this seat.
06/12/2017 Kathy
99.228.107.135
No reason PCs would lose this seat unless NDP over performs.



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