Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Sault Ste. Marie

Prediction Changed
2018-04-11 21:41:46

Constituency Profile








    Sault Ste. Marie
   Ross Romano

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):73370

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17490 58.53%
3704 12.39%
7610 25.47%
965 3.23%
OTHERS 115 0.38%
Total Transposed 29884

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Sault Ste. Marie

Total Transposed29884

Federal Election Result (2015):

Terry Sheehan
Bryan Hayes **
Skip Morrison
Kara Flannigan
Mike Taffarel


26/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
How many times have we seen a stunning by-election upset morph back into traditional realities during a general election? I realize that in these smaller Northern towns the dynamics play out a little differently, so perhaps there is a way by some miracle the PC's can keep this one. It seems obvious to me that the Liberals are out of it completely, so we know it's either going to be won my PC incumbency or by the broader provincial and perhaps more importantly regional trends...and right now I'm going to bet on the trends. One has to have an enormously high profile to withstand the overwhelming numbers that come out in a general election...I don't think most average voters even know their local candidates' names. I'm betting on the NDP here.
Local polls show the NDP leading and the LISPOP have awarded it to the NDP as of Today
25/05/2018 northerner
The USW endorsed Romano. This will stay PC.
5/25/2018 onthefence
with the ndp picking up steam province wide, this will be a pickup from the pc. romano is only there as d orazietti retired. romano is not a strong candidate. liberals have a good candidate, but she's not well known in the city. a small protest vote may go to n ont party, but if their website is any indication of their party, they have a lot to learn. ndp wins here by 2000 votes.
13/05/2018 Joe
They won easily in a more hostile environment and Ross Romano is the star PC candidate here up north. They're holding this seat.
01/05/2018 Educated voter
I think this is going to be an NDP pick up because of the problems the steel workers are having in their industry. Many steel workers are unionized and worry about their pensions.
NDP usually gets tons of support from steel workers, and This city relies on the steel workers industry, so I the NDP winning this riding.
07/04/2018 A.S.
The Soo's been so prone to different-drummer electoral contrarianism over the years, I almost wouldn't be surprised if it stayed Tory even in the event of Doug Ford dragging the party into Grossman-scaled disaster. Of course, if that's too whimsical to consider, there's the counter-contrarian possibility of it being the only NDP steal from the PCs this cycle. Hey, as long as it continues a pattern...
05/04/2018 C. H.
Romano is definitely a strong-enough candidate for the PCs to hold on to the Sault, but the Sault is not really safe territory for any of the three parties and pre-Romano the PCs were very unpopular here provincially. Romano should be favoured, but none of the three parties can be counted out.
24/03/2018 NJam101
The Sault is always hard to predict. The people here never seem to be very loyal to any particular candidate or political party. And this riding can often buck provincial and/or Northern Ontario trends.
Ross Romano is a very moderate PC. He is friends with Patrick Brown and won a by-election. Romano is the kind of person the PCs need in order to win in Northern Ontario. But the big question now is what effect Doug Ford will have on voters here. A message of spending cuts could scare voters here like in most of Northern Ontario. But we don't know who the NDP and Liberal candidates are. I'm thinking that the NDP candidate may have a good chance but it's still too early to predict.
27/12/2017 R.O.
Ross Romano surprised a lot of observers by winning the by election rather easily against a fairly good ndp candidate and former mayor running for the liberals. its not clear who the ndp or liberals plan to run in 2018 and so a pc hold seems possible at this point.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this quite yet for the PCs although they are favoured. This is a riding that both federally and provincially has gone for all parties and tends to be known for wild swings. If the NDP can gain some momentum they could capture this although the Liberals are probably out of it despite their historical strength. Nonetheless it does seem a decline in Liberal vote tends to favour the PCs more than NDP so the better the Liberals do the better the NDP chances are and the worse the Liberals do the better the PCs chances are.
12/12/2017 Innocent bystander
The Tories took this seat for the first time in 32 years, in a by-election that was reportedly delayed because the Liberals couldn't find a candidate, when two thirds of Liberal voters from the previous election either stayed home or changed their minds.
I doubt the anti-Wynne feelings have all been exorcised.

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