Sault Ste. Marie

	BRIZARD, LANCE
	FLANNIGAN, KARA
	HAMEL, JACLYNNE
	HOLMBERG, SANDRA
	MCCLEAVE-KENNEDY, MICHELE

Incumbent(s):

	Sault Ste. Marie    Ross Romano    (100.00% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			73370
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		17490	58.53%
		3704	12.39%
		7610	25.47%
		965	3.23%
	OTHERS	115	0.38%
	Total Transposed	29884
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Sault Ste. Marie
		17490
		3704
		7610
		965
	Others	115
	Total Transposed	29884
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Terry Sheehan
		19582	44.80%
		Bryan Hayes **
		13615	31.10%
		Skip Morrison
		9543	21.80%
		Kara Flannigan
		934	2.10%
		Mike Taffarel
		83	0.20%

	31/05/2018	MF 50.101.245.26
The Soo went Conservative during the last (federal) orange wave, and now they have a personally popular incumbent, Ross Romano (even the USW local endorsed him!) A Mainstreet Research poll gives the PCs a double digit lead.
	29/05/2018	Kingpin Win 70.76.58.107
This is my riding and it is a very tough call. Comparing provincial swing since the byelection, it puts the NDP ahead (which explains LISPOP call). However, among traditional NDP-PC switchers, Michele hasn't been received as well as Joe Krmpotich was and Doug Ford may actually help the PC brand here (evidenced by the USW endorsement). But among Lib-NDP switchers and Lib-PC switchers, Doug Ford is very unpopular. There are very few signs here, showing that most people aren't enthused about their options. This could advantage the NDP who have momentum with undecideds or it could be a shy Tory effect, but Romano is lied enough that I would suspect the former. The last Liberal candidate was a former mayor and her profile may have been enough to make the strategic vote seem unclear. The Liberal today is running a good campaign but is totally unknown, so the anti-Ford vote will likely unite behind the NDP. I can't guarantee that the NDP will win, but I can guarantee that the victory will be extremely narrow, even in the event of an NDP majority.
	29/05/2018	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
The continued Liberal collapse isn't helping the NDP at all.
	29/05/2018	Kingpin Win 70.76.58.107
This is my riding and it is a very tough call. Comparing provincial swing since the byelection, it puts the NDP ahead (which explains LISPOP call). However, among traditional NDP-PC switchers, Michele hasn't been received as well as Joe Krmpotich was and Doug Ford may actually help the PC brand here (evidenced by the USW endorsement). But among Lib-NDP switchers and Lib-PC switchers, Doug Ford is very unpopular. There are very few signs here, showing that most people aren't enthused about their options. This could advantage the NDP who have momentum with undecideds or it could be a shy Tory effect, but Romano is lied enough that I would suspect the former. The last Liberal candidate was a former mayor and her profile may have been enough to make the strategic vote seem unclear. The Liberal today is running a good campaign but is totally unknown, so the anti-Ford vote will likely unite behind the NDP. I can't guarantee that the NDP will win, but I can guarantee that the victory will be extremely narrow, even in the event of an NDP majority.
	5/28/2018	NJam101 208.96.95.84
While I mentioned before that the Sault doesn't always follow trends, I am quite certain that Michele McCleave-Kennedy will win. But I don't think that it will be by a huge margin over Ross Romano. The remaining Liberal voters from the by-election will almost entirely go to the NDP. There is a possibility of the NDP sweeping all of Northern Ontario due to the same reason. I will add that if Ross Romano was the PC leader, the PCs would be winning a majority government and even many seats in Northern Ontario. But Doug Ford just doesn't appeal to Northerners. Romano is a very red-Tory and much more likeable than former Sault CPC MP Bryan Hayes who was short-lived.
	27/05/2018	Neutral Pundit 99.240.0.209
Nobody has really paid attention to the fact that NDP numbers are stagnant at best in northern Ontario compared to 2014 whilst the big gainers seem to be the PCs -- who are starting from a very low base in the region. It makes perfect sense. Voters in many regions are abandoning the governing Liberals in favour of the non-traditional (third-place) opposition party. In the north, that's the PCs. In most northern ridings, this will just mean a narrower than usual victory for the NDP. In Timmins, and in the three ridings nearest Manitoba, it should be making the NDP at least a little nervous. In Tory-held SSM, it doesn't bode well for the orange team at all. It could still go either way, but the PCs have the edge here, even in the face of renewed NDP momentum in the north. The NDP could even win a majority without SSM. Or Andrea could wallop Doug in the debate tonight and this prediction will be rendered moot before it's even published. Time will tell.
	26/05/2018	Laurence Putnam 50.92.139.181
How many times have we seen a stunning by-election upset morph back into traditional realities during a general election? I realize that in these smaller Northern towns the dynamics play out a little differently, so perhaps there is a way by some miracle the PC's can keep this one. It seems obvious to me that the Liberals are out of it completely, so we know it's either going to be won my PC incumbency or by the broader provincial and perhaps more importantly regional trends...and right now I'm going to bet on the trends. One has to have an enormously high profile to withstand the overwhelming numbers that come out in a general election...I don't think most average voters even know their local candidates' names. I'm betting on the NDP here.
	22/05/2018	65.110.217.24
Local polls show the NDP leading and the LISPOP have awarded it to the NDP as of Today
	25/05/2018	northerner 198.103.145.50
The USW endorsed Romano. This will stay PC.
	5/25/2018	onthefence 99.224.176.145
with the ndp picking up steam province wide, this will be a pickup from the pc. romano is only there as d orazietti retired. romano is not a strong candidate. liberals have a good candidate, but she's not well known in the city. a small protest vote may go to n ont party, but if their website is any indication of their party, they have a lot to learn. ndp wins here by 2000 votes.
	13/05/2018	Joe 99.243.204.67
They won easily in a more hostile environment and Ross Romano is the star PC candidate here up north. They're holding this seat.
	01/05/2018	Educated voter 206.47.14.121
I think this is going to be an NDP pick up because of the problems the steel workers are having in their industry. Many steel workers are unionized and worry about their pensions. NDP usually gets tons of support from steel workers, and This city relies on the steel workers industry, so I the NDP winning this riding.
	07/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
The Soo's been so prone to different-drummer electoral contrarianism over the years, I almost wouldn't be surprised if it stayed Tory even in the event of Doug Ford dragging the party into Grossman-scaled disaster. Of course, if that's too whimsical to consider, there's the counter-contrarian possibility of it being the only NDP steal from the PCs this cycle. Hey, as long as it continues a pattern...
	05/04/2018	C. H. 24.53.244.189
Romano is definitely a strong-enough candidate for the PCs to hold on to the Sault, but the Sault is not really safe territory for any of the three parties and pre-Romano the PCs were very unpopular here provincially. Romano should be favoured, but none of the three parties can be counted out.
	24/03/2018	NJam101 63.135.16.204
The Sault is always hard to predict. The people here never seem to be very loyal to any particular candidate or political party. And this riding can often buck provincial and/or Northern Ontario trends. Ross Romano is a very moderate PC. He is friends with Patrick Brown and won a by-election. Romano is the kind of person the PCs need in order to win in Northern Ontario. But the big question now is what effect Doug Ford will have on voters here. A message of spending cuts could scare voters here like in most of Northern Ontario. But we don't know who the NDP and Liberal candidates are. I'm thinking that the NDP candidate may have a good chance but it's still too early to predict.
	27/12/2017	R.O. 24.146.17.189
Ross Romano surprised a lot of observers by winning the by election rather easily against a fairly good ndp candidate and former mayor running for the liberals. its not clear who the ndp or liberals plan to run in 2018 and so a pc hold seems possible at this point.
	15/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
I wouldn't call this quite yet for the PCs although they are favoured. This is a riding that both federally and provincially has gone for all parties and tends to be known for wild swings. If the NDP can gain some momentum they could capture this although the Liberals are probably out of it despite their historical strength. Nonetheless it does seem a decline in Liberal vote tends to favour the PCs more than NDP so the better the Liberals do the better the NDP chances are and the worse the Liberals do the better the PCs chances are.
	12/12/2017	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
The Tories took this seat for the first time in 32 years, in a by-election that was reportedly delayed because the Liberals couldn't find a candidate, when two thirds of Liberal voters from the previous election either stayed home or changed their minds. I doubt the anti-Wynne feelings have all been exorcised.