Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Sault Ste. Marie

Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:36:39

Constituency Profile



    Sault Ste. Marie
   Ross Romano

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):73370

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17490 58.53%
3704 12.39%
7610 25.47%
965 3.23%
OTHERS 115 0.38%
Total Transposed 29884

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Sault Ste. Marie

Total Transposed29884

Federal Election Result (2015):

Terry Sheehan
Bryan Hayes **
Skip Morrison
Kara Flannigan
Mike Taffarel


27/12/2017 R.O.
Ross Romano surprised a lot of observers by winning the by election rather easily against a fairly good ndp candidate and former mayor running for the liberals. its not clear who the ndp or liberals plan to run in 2018 and so a pc hold seems possible at this point.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this quite yet for the PCs although they are favoured. This is a riding that both federally and provincially has gone for all parties and tends to be known for wild swings. If the NDP can gain some momentum they could capture this although the Liberals are probably out of it despite their historical strength. Nonetheless it does seem a decline in Liberal vote tends to favour the PCs more than NDP so the better the Liberals do the better the NDP chances are and the worse the Liberals do the better the PCs chances are.
12/12/2017 Innocent bystander
The Tories took this seat for the first time in 32 years, in a by-election that was reportedly delayed because the Liberals couldn't find a candidate, when two thirds of Liberal voters from the previous election either stayed home or changed their minds.
I doubt the anti-Wynne feelings have all been exorcised.

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