Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-04 13:03:00

Constituency Profile












   Soo Wong

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):104499

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17166 49.80%
11941 34.64%
4078 11.83%
901 2.61%
OTHERS 386 1.12%
Total Transposed 34470

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed34470

Federal Election Result (2015):

Arnold Chan **
Bin Chang
Laura Patrick
Debra Scott
Jude Coutinho


03/06/2018 Chris
Riding is historically liberal-leaning. Conservatives can win if the vote gets split between the Liberals and the NDP, but the NDP have fielded a weak candidate who is largely known for a Facebook gaffe. That should be enough to rally the riding around the Liberal incumbent to deny the Conservatives an extra seat in the legislature.
Soo Wong (Liberal) is the incumbent. Her ethnic group matches riding's dominant demographic (41.3% is Chinese). She's been in public service since 2011 and has a very strong resume.
Tasleem Riaz (NDP) might've been able to unseat her, if she wasn't such a weak candidate. Largely unknown except for that Facebook gaffe (which wasn't as bad as her opponents make it out to be, but still).
Aris Babikian (Conservative) and his party is pushing the riding hard. But he's up against a strong incumbent and doesn't have any particular advantages, aside from a decent resume. He skipped a recent debate. He doesn't match the riding's demographic (only 1.8% are Armenian).
02/06/2018 The_A_Man33
As a former resident of the riding, there is a very strong presence of Chinese Evangelical Conservative Christians in the riding with crosses on every door. Ditto for West of Markham Road in Scarborough Rouge-River, now Scarborough North, the same effect will happen here. A PC pickup for sure
02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
Prediction models are showing the PCs taking this seat. The Liberals are in second with the NDP taking a significant amount to prevent Liberals from winning. Now with Wynne effectively conceding defeat, I'm of the opinion that more Liberals will swing to the NDP, furthering the vote split. There are two possibilities for this to not go PC; 1) The NDP get a massive boost in support over the last week (in which they become competitive here); 2) The liberals focus on this riding as one of their save-the-furniture attempts and the NDP more or less let them be.
02/06/2018 The Lobster
There was a day when this and Scarborough North were the safest Liberal seats in Scarborough. Now, they're the safest for the Conservatives. The lack of any NDP basis/history here makes this, in my humble opinion, the easiest pickup for the Tories in Scarborough (Cho has some difficulty with the NDP).
31/05/2018 G. Wong
In my neighbourhood, I have only seen 2 large signs for the Liberal incumbent Soo Wong, the rest are the more modest 'small' signs for the Progressive Conservative (PC) candidate Aris Babikian, all on front lawns. There are no 'corner' public property signs anywhere in common entry ways, where people are most likely to see them day in day out. No signs seen anywhere for NDP or Green.
So far, I have received campaign materials twice from the PC candidate Aris Babikian. None whatsoever from the other parties as to this date. Just over a week until the election on June 7th and still no campaign brochure from the Liberal incumbent Soo Wong is rather surprising, in my opinion.
Both Liberal incumbent Soo Wong (registered nurse) and PC candidate Aris Babikian (retired Citizenship Judge, etc) have strong resumes - but Aris is not weighted down by the Wynne Liberals' tarnished track record.
I think Aris Babikian has a good shot at winning this riding based on the current political climate - PC vs NDP (Liberals freefalling) according to the latest polls. There is absolutely no chance of the NDP winning in this riding, and the provincial Liberal party's reputation and goodwill has long been worn out.
*Side note: Aris Babikian has a Chinese name 白必勤 on his signs/promotional material, how (cute and) strategic.
12/05/2018 The Rhyming Bard
I have lived in this riding my entire life, the NDP has been dismal provincially and do not appear to even have a candidate nominated and the Green Party is not running a candidate. Don't be fooled by "strong" PC party votes over the last few provincial and federal elections. The Liberals could be reduced to a dozen seats and they would still manage to hold this one, no matter how dismal the incumbent is.
08/05/2018 Christopher L
I think the PCs will finally break through and take this riding. The Chinese community has been trending towards the Tories, especially at the federal level, for some time now, and Doug Ford is well placed to help accelerate that transition. And more generally, the Liberals have dropped so much in the Toronto suburbs that seats they won by a 15% margin last time will be very difficult to hold. All signs point to PC victory - I'd predict 45-35-15 in terms of percentages.
07/05/2018 KXS
Conservatives have made serious inroads with GTA's Chinese Canadian community. This riding leans more towards the PCs than many 905 ridings.
The PCs nominated a weak candidate compared to the Liberal incumbent. However, I feel Scarborough Agincourt will be the strongest PC performance in Toronto.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points in 2014; now they're running third, down 43% ... they bleed red ink slower than that.
25/03/2018 Mir-Interstingly-Ontario
I sort of see Soo Wong keeping this seat. Big Chinese and Tamil population here. She is Chinese and Tamils tend to vote Liberal.
PC Candidate could win if Soo does not, he is Armenian. Armenian population in the riding but there are more Chinese and Tamils than Armenians. I see the Greeks voting for Soo Wong if she gets endorsement from former MP (and local Councillor) Jim Karygiannis. Armenian population has followed JK for 26 years.
If Soo Wong doesn't get endorsements from JK and the usuals, she might not win. 97% chances she will win.
21/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Tailor-made for Doug. Lots of Chinese voters who are headed to his column big time. One of his better ridings in the leadership contest.
18/03/2018 A.S.
Funny how the last Scarborough riding to *not* see PC representation since 1995 is now the one deemed by some to be likeliest to see PC representation in 2018. And as an indicator of topsy-turvy electoral demos, the solidest Tory neighbourhood of 3 decades ago (Bridlewood) is now relatively Lib-moderate (and a rare Scarborough-interior pocket of John Tory as opposed to Doug Ford mayoral support). Though I don't know how much of a Tory liability having a non-Chinese candidate in the running here is...
12/03/2018 MF
The federal Conservatives were able to get 40% of the vote in Agincourt with the virtually unknown Andrew Scheer leading them and Justin Trudeau being far more popular than Kathleen Wynne.
Plus Doug Ford is quite popular in the Chinese community. I suspect this is near the top of the list for potential PC pickups in Toronto.
11/03/2018 JC
Scarborough Agincourt has exceptionally high proportion of Chinese voters/residents. While the Chinese community has supported Liberals since the elder Trudeau days (and the community has strongly supported Liberal politicians like Gerry Phillips, Arnold Chan and Soo Wong in past elections), that loyalty has been gradually eroding over the past decade. The community's social and fiscal conservative values are generally more aligned with right-wing candidates.
During the PC Leadership, Mainstreet used Chinese speakers to poll Chinese speaking members, and Ford scored 52.4% (compare to 21.67% among English speakers, and 5.26% among South Asians). He clearly has a strong following in the Chinese community.
In the 2015 elections, the most Chinese ridings in GTA and in Greater Vancouver both elected Conservative MPs, while the rest of the regions went overwhelmingly Liberal. In the most recent federal byelection, Arnold Chan's widow Jean Yip barely beat back a challenge by a no-profile Chinese conservative candidate.
This riding is toss-up at best, likely leaning PC. Liberal's only saving grace maybe the fact that it is running a Chinese two-term incumbent.
11/03/2018 Craig
Yes, this riding has been strongly Liberal for decades - even during the Mike Harris days. However, the federal by-election (41% for the federal Conservatives) and recent election results at all levels suggest a change may be coming. The Chinese-Canadian population has been trending rightward in recent years (see also BC elections), and they dominate this riding.
The nomination of Doug Ford as leader, despite his weaknesses elsewhere, should be the final straw that sends the red wall crumbling. Both he and Rob have been very popular in Scarborough through their municipal elections, and he also helped greatly in the 2016 provincial by-election in adjacent Scarborough North. Hence, this should be a PC pickup.
14/02/2018 Dr.Bear
I too feel the Liberal call is premature. The growing Chinese presence in this riding is very pro-business and will support a party that is seen as such. Note how federally the numbers for the CPC are quite robust, when you might expect a place with a Liberal history to be polling better for team red (especially when the liberal party is quite popular federally). Provincially the liberals are looking pretty bad. You would expect, given the Patrick Brown fiasco, that the Liberals would be polling higher, but PC numbers have remained firmly in their favor. Not a good time to be an Ontarian Liberal.
11/01/2018 MF
Safe Liberal seat? No, not only did the federal Conservatives get over 40% of the vote in the by-election, but this was the best seat for the PCs in Toronto in the last election. TCTC for now.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Federally the Tories got 41% in the recent by-election and this is despite the fact the federal Liberals were running Arnold Chan's widow who probably got a sizeable sympathy vote. As such this is not a safe Liberal one and the PCs have made strong inroads amongst Chinese voters. As such barring a major mess up, the PCs should outperform ther federal counterparts while also the splits on the left should be stronger as the NDP should do a bit better. Still the strong Liberal history means they are not totally out of it here, but won't be a slam dunk like in the past.
11/12/2017 seasaw
While the margin between the Liberals and the PC's has gotten smaller, this is still a safe Liberal seat. The Tories have to be in a very massive majority territory in order to win this. There is a chance of that happening, but it's a slight chance, for now we'll call this one for the Liberals

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