Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Scarborough-Agincourt


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:36:43
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Babikian, Aris

Wong, Soo


Incumbent(s):
    Scarborough-Agincourt
   Soo Wong

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):104499


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17166 49.80%
11941 34.64%
4078 11.83%
901 2.61%
OTHERS 386 1.12%
Total Transposed 34470

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Scarborough-Agincourt

17166
11941
4078
901
Others386
Total Transposed34470


Federal Election Result (2015):

Arnold Chan **
2158751.90%
Bin Chang
1580238.00%
Laura Patrick
32637.90%
Debra Scott
5701.40%
Jude Coutinho
3340.80%


 

11/01/2018 MF
69.159.31.101
Safe Liberal seat? No, not only did the federal Conservatives get over 40% of the vote in the by-election, but this was the best seat for the PCs in Toronto in the last election. TCTC for now.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Federally the Tories got 41% in the recent by-election and this is despite the fact the federal Liberals were running Arnold Chan's widow who probably got a sizeable sympathy vote. As such this is not a safe Liberal one and the PCs have made strong inroads amongst Chinese voters. As such barring a major mess up, the PCs should outperform ther federal counterparts while also the splits on the left should be stronger as the NDP should do a bit better. Still the strong Liberal history means they are not totally out of it here, but won't be a slam dunk like in the past.
11/12/2017 seasaw
99.225.226.230
While the margin between the Liberals and the PC's has gotten smaller, this is still a safe Liberal seat. The Tories have to be in a very massive majority territory in order to win this. There is a chance of that happening, but it's a slight chance, for now we'll call this one for the Liberals



Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster