Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Scarborough-Guildwood


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:36:54
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Garvida, George

Hunter, Mitzie


Incumbent(s):
    Scarborough-Guildwood
   Hon Mitzie Hunter

   (88.24% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Scarborough Centre
   Hon Brad Duguid

   (11.76% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):101914


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16154 50.35%
8964 27.94%
5448 16.98%
902 2.81%
OTHERS 614 1.91%
Total Transposed 32082

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Scarborough-Guildwood

13764
7835
4624
772
Others614
Total Transposed27609

     Scarborough Centre

2390
1129
824
130
Others0
Total Transposed4473


Federal Election Result (2015):

John McKay **
2516760.00%
Chuck Konkel
1110826.50%
Laura Casselman
472011.30%
Kathleen Holding
6061.40%
Kevin Clarke
1750.40%
Paul Coulbeck
1410.30%


 

21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
Hunter has really solidified herself in this riding. No PC candidate yet which is interesting. Likely Liberal hold.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Safe Liberal riding nowadays (NDP and PCs won in the past but it was then more of a white working class riding as opposed to a multicultural one like today) and with Mitzie Hunter being young, female, and a visible minority I would not be the least surprised if she becomes the next Liberal leader if Wynne loses and even if Wynne wins, she probably will retire sometime around 2021.



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