Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Scarborough North


Prediction Changed
2017-12-16 20:21:15
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Lee, Chin


Incumbent(s):
    Scarborough-Rouge River
   Raymond Sung Joon Cho

   (92.53% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Scarborough-Agincourt
   Soo Wong

   (7.47% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):101080


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

12365 40.07%
9623 31.18%
8067 26.14%
494 1.60%
OTHERS 313 1.01%
Total Transposed 30862

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Scarborough-Rouge River

11194
8816
7770
429
Others290
Total Transposed28499

     Scarborough-Agincourt

1171
807
297
64
Others22
Total Transposed2363


Federal Election Result (2015):

Shaun Chen
1890448.20%
Ravinder Malhi
1073727.40%
Rathika Sitsabaiesan **
864822.10%
Eleni MacDonald
5791.50%
Raphael Rosch
1640.40%
Aasia Khatoon
1560.40%


 

03/01/2018 Dr. Bear
70.55.206.58
I want to say a PC hold. The pieces are there: Patrick Brown is leading a kinder, gentler PC party and appears to have an urban-centric platform; a large Chinese plurality who naturally gravitate to a pro-business party; a substantial NDP presence to weaken the Liberals. It all looks promising on paper, but I can shake the thought of Etobicoke-Lakeshore in 2014. It seemed that Doug Holyday should be a sho-in, yet his by-election win was flipped on it's head. TCTC for now, but stay tuned....
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Despite being a PC pick up in a by-election this is normally a safe Liberal riding so it depends whether the Liberals remain well back in the polls and PCs well ahead thus PC hold or do things tighten in which I could see the Liberals picking this up but still losing provincially. Otherwise I can see the Liberals winning this but losing provincially, cannot see the PCs winning this and not winning provincewide. That being said as a rather multicultural riding and with Brown's strong efforts to make inroads amongst ethnic communities it could be more competitive than in the past as many ethnic communities are by nature fairly conservative, but due to the PCs being seen as a largely white party and also some racism at the federal level, that has probably held them back from doing better.



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