|I think Cho will hold this - the NDP vote will be up, but Ford will help Cho build on his support from the by-election, and that should be more than enough to get the win. Expect a huge Tory majority in the Chinese parts of the riding, swamping any NDP victories further east.|
|I echo Dr. Bear's suspicions about this riding. Many projections have this going NDP in any event. They won it federally in 2011, after all. Only thing giving me pause is Cho's personal status, and that Ford would certainly make him a cabinet minister.|
|Despite the fact most the riding are modest to low-income folks. I've noticed personally just having lived at the border between Scarborough Agincourt and this riding on the Agincourt side that the Chinese voter presence is very strong and most Chinese voters in the riding vote Tory. Plus the redistribution benefits the Tories strongly cutting shrinking the amount of Tamil and Caribbean voters, East of Markham Road. This will be a PC easy hold.|
|I wonder if Wynne effectively conceding defeat, and the liberals too busy trying to save existing incumbents will result in Liberal voters switching to the NDP? I'm thinking in close races this could tip a few seats into the NDP column.|
|Scarborough is not really conservative. They lower-income centrists, meaning that they don't like identity politics or govt. waste but they can't countenance service cuts or tax giveaways to the rich. They would have gone PC under Brown but Abacus shows NDPs with a large lead among these types and Liberals doing very poorly. Strategic voting will work effectively here moreso than it would even further south in the borough. It will be close, but Global shows that district will go NDP even in a Ford Majority.|
||Not Non-Partisan |
|Chin Lee is a nice guy who is going to get steamrolled by the Ford Juggernaut in June. Cho shouldn't be running. He's never been terribly effective in the twenty-plus years he's been in office. However, this is the prototypical Ford turf. Ethnic, lower middle-class. I campaigned nearby for a very popular longtime City Councillor in 2010 and many people said they would only support him if he was supporting Brother Rob. Nothing different this time except its Doug rather than Rob .|
|For those who fear a Doug Ford government where every single incumbent is rubber-stamped, the wretchedness here is that the octogenarian Raymond Cho should've been far more the 'one-byelection wonder' going into 2018 than Doug Holyday was going into 2014. But at least if we assume the Wynne Libs still have legs in this part of Scarborough, Cho's more than met his match--moreover, Chin Lee's municipal constituency more closely corresponds with Scarborough North's boundaries than Cho's former ward does. Though one likely consequence of this battle royal is: any vestige of the Rathika/Neethan Shan Tamil NDP machine in what's left of Morningside Heights et al has been consigned to oblivion...|
| Doug Ford took the northern tier of Scarborough with 50%+ in the 2014 mayoral race, and this despite the presence of a Chinese-origin candidate for mayor. The 9-point Lib-PC margin is easily overcome here. Easy Conservative pickup.|
|Scarborough North has exceptionally high proportion of Chinese voters/residents. While the Chinese community has supported Liberals since the elder Trudeau days (and the community has strongly supported Ontario Liberal politicians like Gerry Phillips, Alvin Curling and Soo Wong in past elections), that loyalty has been gradually eroding over the past decade. The community's social and fiscal conservative values are generally more aligned with right-wing candidates. |
During the PC Leadership, Mainstreet used Chinese speakers to poll Chinese speaking members, and Ford scored 52.4% (compare to 21.67% among English speakers, and 5.26% among South Asians). He clearly has a strong following in the Chinese community.
In the 2015 elections, the most Chinese ridings in GTA and in Greater Vancouver both elected Conservative MPs, while the rest of the regions went overwhelmingly Liberal.
This riding is toss-up at best, likely leaning PC. Liberal's only saving grace maybe the fact that it is running a popular Chinese incumbent city councillor.
|I want to say a PC hold. The pieces are there: Patrick Brown is leading a kinder, gentler PC party and appears to have an urban-centric platform; a large Chinese plurality who naturally gravitate to a pro-business party; a substantial NDP presence to weaken the Liberals. It all looks promising on paper, but I can shake the thought of Etobicoke-Lakeshore in 2014. It seemed that Doug Holyday should be a sho-in, yet his by-election win was flipped on it's head. TCTC for now, but stay tuned....|
|Despite being a PC pick up in a by-election this is normally a safe Liberal riding so it depends whether the Liberals remain well back in the polls and PCs well ahead thus PC hold or do things tighten in which I could see the Liberals picking this up but still losing provincially. Otherwise I can see the Liberals winning this but losing provincially, cannot see the PCs winning this and not winning provincewide. That being said as a rather multicultural riding and with Brown's strong efforts to make inroads amongst ethnic communities it could be more competitive than in the past as many ethnic communities are by nature fairly conservative, but due to the PCs being seen as a largely white party and also some racism at the federal level, that has probably held them back from doing better.|