Chapman, Matthew
	Malone, Greg
	McDonald, Kenneth
	Movelle, Lea Mary
Incumbent:
	Ken McDonald

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			86494 81590 44009 34766 6457.79 km² 13.4/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Ken McDonald	23528	55.90%
	Scott Andrews **	7501	17.80%
	Jeannie Baldwin	6075	14.40%
	Lorraine E. Barnett	4670	11.10%
	Krista Byrne-Puumala	228	0.50%
	Jennifer McCreath	84	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		13214	37.09%
		10164	28.53%
		11820	33.18%
		225	0.63%
Other		200	0.56%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Avalon    (73.03% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
St. John's East    (26.97% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	17/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
Rural Newfoundland riding, I think the Liberals hold on here.
	07/09/19	A.S. 99.225.32.21
The Avalon Peninsula *at large* is the traditional base for Tory support in Newfoundland, except that the urban core of that mostly fled federally for Lib/NDP once the right united--what kept Avalon going was Fabian Manning supertargeting and, perhaps, non-urbanity relative to the St. John's ridings. It'd even seem that CPC's given up on bowing to ancestral Toryism, given how they blocked (pre-provincial-leadership) Ches Crosbie from the nomination--instead, the highest-profile opponent would seem to be comic Greg Malone for the Greens, nearly two decades after he nearly won St. John's West for the NDP in a byelection. Under the circumstance, maybe *he* can use the Crosbie family endorsement.
	30/05/19	Laurence Putnam 96.53.49.70
I'm not even so sure about a supposedly good Conservative base in this riding; I would argue that it was much more of a Fabian Manning riding than a Tory one. For this and all the other reasons cited here, I would say there is no question that this is riding returns a Liberal in October.
	24/02/19	Sam 86.161.144.122
This was generally the best seat for the Conservatives in Newfoundland - it was the only one they won in 2011 on the current boundaries. Yet in 2015, Ken MacDonald won easily, and given the by-election result in the neighbouring seat, may not win a majority of votes again, but he is the incumbent and clear favourite to hold on against what has now become more divided opposition.
	24/02/19	M. Lunn 174.7.100.252
If the Conservatives were to win a seat in Newfoundland this would probably be their best chance, but the bad memories of the Harper era (who is loathed in Newfoundland) probably means they still have to wait another election or two before they have a real shot here.