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Avalon
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:30:56
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



McDonald, Ken


Incumbent:

Ken McDonald

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

86494
81590

44009
34766

6457.79 km²
13.4/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ken McDonald 2352855.90%
Scott Andrews ** 750117.80%
Jeannie Baldwin 607514.40%
Lorraine E. Barnett 467011.10%
Krista Byrne-Puumala 2280.50%
Jennifer McCreath 840.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1321437.09%
1016428.53%
1182033.18%
2250.63%
Other 2000.56%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Avalon
   (73.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   St. John's East
   (26.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


30/05/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
I'm not even so sure about a supposedly good Conservative base in this riding; I would argue that it was much more of a Fabian Manning riding than a Tory one. For this and all the other reasons cited here, I would say there is no question that this is riding returns a Liberal in October.
24/02/19 Sam
86.161.144.122
This was generally the best seat for the Conservatives in Newfoundland - it was the only one they won in 2011 on the current boundaries. Yet in 2015, Ken MacDonald won easily, and given the by-election result in the neighbouring seat, may not win a majority of votes again, but he is the incumbent and clear favourite to hold on against what has now become more divided opposition.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
If the Conservatives were to win a seat in Newfoundland this would probably be their best chance, but the bad memories of the Harper era (who is loathed in Newfoundland) probably means they still have to wait another election or two before they have a real shot here.



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