Election Prediction Project

Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:27:55

Constituency Profile


Bracci, Alex

Joe, Noel

Simms, Scott

White, Byron


Scott Simms

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



39395.65 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Scott Simms ** 2652374.80%
Kevin George O'Brien 647918.30%
Claudette Menchenton 21756.10%
Elizabeth Perry 2710.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 740.26%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
   (72.93% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
   (17.77% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Random-Burin-St. George's
   (9.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Scott Simms running again surprised me a little. Still he'll win this easily. Conservative candidate is pretty much unknown.
30/09/19 Teddy Boragina
This is the most Conservative riding on the Island, and the few province-wide federal polls have shown that the post-harper CPC does not suffer from the same hate the Harper era party did in the province. This is the math; those looking at polls from the ‘atlantic’ region, ignore the re-balancing between the 4 atlantic provinces that have occured.
07/09/19 A.S.
I presume the 338 projection was picking up from 2015 figures, which were skewed by a high-profile Conservative candidate (a provincial cabinet minister who finished with the party's best result in N&L that cycle). That's the problem with using riding projection models around these parts: in Newfoundland, candidates matter.
01/07/19 ottawa99
According to a Narrative Research poll focusing specifically on Atlantic Canada (https://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/June-5-19-News-Release-Atlantic-Federal-Voting-Intentions.pdf), the Liberals are only three points ahead of the Conservatives in NL (45 to 42%). Of course, this is only one poll. It would need to be corroborated by other polls that give results for NL, or riding-specific polls. That said, if these numbers are accurate, this seat is likely in play. Recent federal election results and demographics suggest any Conservative strength is likely not in the two St. John's seats, meaning that it would likely be concentrated in rural ridings such as this.
30/05/19 Laurence Putnam
I am gobsmacked that 338 Canada is calling this for the Conservatives. Unless they know something I don't (very possible) I just can't imagine it. The Liberals won by almost a 2-1 margin - even in 2011. Until a major change in attitude takes place towards the Conservatives in NF&L, and even then, barring a very compelling local candidate, I just cannot foresee any chance the Conservatives might have here for some years to come; certainly not this October.
25/05/19 The Jackal
Interesting the website 338canada has this pegged as a possible CPC pick up. However with the Rock being scorched earth for the federal Tories I would say Mr.Simms will coast to another election victory.
31/03/19 Sam
Scott Simms or not, it would be stunning for this to go anything other than Liberal.
24/02/19 Teddy Boragina
Simms is a bit of a maverick and Newfoundlanders like their mavericks. Additionally, this area of the province is much more Liberal friendly than otherwise; this adds up to a re-election fairly easily here.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Solid Liberal riding as well as Scott Simms has shown himself to be a fairly independent minded MP which the party may not care for, but is well appreciated by constituents.

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