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St. John's East
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-27 21:33:53
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Whalen, Nick


Incumbent:

Nick Whalen

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

85697
81936

39038
35505

328.15 km²
261.1/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Nick Whalen 2097446.70%
Jack Harris ** 2032845.30%
Deanne Stapleton 29386.50%
David Anthony Peters 5001.10%
Sean Burton 1400.30%


2011 Results (redistributed)

753820.45%
2604270.65%
28647.77%
4151.13%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   St. John's East
   (95.89% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   St. John's South-Mount Pearl
   (4.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
50.68.187.24
Jack Harris is definitely a game changer if he runs and has every possibility of winning.
Still have to put the smart money back on the Liberals though. Harris still lost last time when the NDP overall did much better nationally than I think we can assume they will do this time.
No Jack Harris? Liberal landslide. Harris running = 50/50 odds at best for the NDP.
Overall leaning Liberal.
05/03/19 Newfoundlander1949
99.231.71.101
Jack Harris announced today that he is seriously considering running for his old seat against Nick Whalen. Given the unpopularity and underperformance of Whalen in this riding, I cannot see Harris losing to him in a re-match. This riding has a lot of solid support for Jack Harris and he could easily take this riding back with the levels of support he was accustomed to in previous elections.
Source: https://twitter.com/PeterCBC/status/1102950451035676673
27/02/19 odude22
70.28.3.54
This riding is an anomaly compared to the others in NL which are almost guaranteed Liberal. Before we label St. John's East as the same, there are some important things to consider. Since joining confederation in 1949, there have been 21 general elections and 1 by-election contested in St. John's East. 15 of those elections were won by Progressive Conservatives/Conservatives, 5 by Liberals, and 3 by NDP (by Jack Harris on all occasions, by-election 1987, general 2008 & 2011). Prior to Whalen winning in 2015, the riding was only Liberal from 1993-1997, and before that 1963-1968. Historically, this is a conservative riding. When Whalen was elected in 2015, the Liberal share of the vote went up by 39% (and Whalen still won with less than 50% of the vote). This jump can almost certainly be attributed to Trudeau's popularity and not to Whalen. Most of the riding has been disillusioned by Whalen's term as MP and his personal popularity is low. The real question in St. John's East is whether Trudeau's popularity is high enough to secure Whalen a second term.



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