Election Prediction Project

St. John's East
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-27 21:33:53

Constituency Profile


Whalen, Nick


Nick Whalen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



328.15 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Nick Whalen 2097446.70%
Jack Harris ** 2032845.30%
Deanne Stapleton 29386.50%
David Anthony Peters 5001.10%
Sean Burton 1400.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. John's East
   (95.89% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   St. John's South-Mount Pearl
   (4.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Jack Harris is definitely a game changer if he runs and has every possibility of winning.
Still have to put the smart money back on the Liberals though. Harris still lost last time when the NDP overall did much better nationally than I think we can assume they will do this time.
No Jack Harris? Liberal landslide. Harris running = 50/50 odds at best for the NDP.
Overall leaning Liberal.
05/03/19 Newfoundlander1949
Jack Harris announced today that he is seriously considering running for his old seat against Nick Whalen. Given the unpopularity and underperformance of Whalen in this riding, I cannot see Harris losing to him in a re-match. This riding has a lot of solid support for Jack Harris and he could easily take this riding back with the levels of support he was accustomed to in previous elections.
Source: https://twitter.com/PeterCBC/status/1102950451035676673
27/02/19 odude22
This riding is an anomaly compared to the others in NL which are almost guaranteed Liberal. Before we label St. John's East as the same, there are some important things to consider. Since joining confederation in 1949, there have been 21 general elections and 1 by-election contested in St. John's East. 15 of those elections were won by Progressive Conservatives/Conservatives, 5 by Liberals, and 3 by NDP (by Jack Harris on all occasions, by-election 1987, general 2008 & 2011). Prior to Whalen winning in 2015, the riding was only Liberal from 1993-1997, and before that 1963-1968. Historically, this is a conservative riding. When Whalen was elected in 2015, the Liberal share of the vote went up by 39% (and Whalen still won with less than 50% of the vote). This jump can almost certainly be attributed to Trudeau's popularity and not to Whalen. Most of the riding has been disillusioned by Whalen's term as MP and his personal popularity is low. The real question in St. John's East is whether Trudeau's popularity is high enough to secure Whalen a second term.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster