|It has been confirmed by the Newfoundland media that Jack Harris will be making a comeback and he is expected to be nominated this month. However, the one wrinkle for Harris is that the new CRA poll for the Atlantic shows the NDP falling to 4th place behind the Greens. This could make a comeback more challenging, but it's early days yet.|
|Whilst a landslide like he had in 2008 or 2011 seems out of reach, Jack Harris' candidacy should bring this back in to the Dipper column. With the Liberals declining even in NL, particularly with a MP who has a limited local popularity in Nick Whalen, the circumstances are ripe for an NDP gain. Despite a lack of resources for the NDP, last time they invested nothing in St. John's East and campaigned exclusively for Ryan Cleary next door; that won't happen again. Provincial results in NL clearly don't translate into federal results, but the NDP still did well in St. John's and it is a good indicator. Aside from the unique indicators here, even on a uniform swing in Atlantic Canada, this should be an easy gain for the NDP, and one of only a handful of target seats that they're highly likely to gain. All things being equal, the NDP should win with perhaps a slight increase in their vote share, with the Liberals in decline.|
|Jack Harris is running here again and so this should be an easy NDP pickup since the liberals are no longer riding a wave against an incumbent conservative government. Despite overwhelmingly winning Atlantic Canada last time around the liberals won this very narrowly and Jack Harris lost by the smallest margin of any NDP incumbent in Atlantic Canada. The NDP also easily held the their two provincial seats within the boundary of this riding in the provincial election. I expect this to go back to the NDP.|
|Jack Harris confirmed this morning that he will be running in St. Johns East. This riding just became a landslide victory for the NDP.|
|While this may be an NDP target Singh has not gained any real support in Atlantic Canada. The Rock is scorched earth for the CPC thanks to Danny Williams' ABC campaign a de are ago. Looks for the Liberals to win this with a higher margin than last time.|
|If Jack Harris runs then I do think this will certainly go NDP, as he has the recognition and the momentum, and will get lots of local support. But we don't know if he is, and if he isn't it's still a good shot for them. Whether Jagmeet Singh can capitalise on his local connection is one thing, but he might have to do little for the NDP to win here. Singh should do better here than elsewhere. Nick Whalen has been a pretty low-quality MP, and the Trudeau brand is declining in the Atlantics - UNS projections have the NDP winning here, sometimes quite comfortably. We'll have to see what happens in the future, but the NDP have a fighting chance against Whalen.|
|Jack Harris is definitely a game changer if he runs and has every possibility of winning. |
Still have to put the smart money back on the Liberals though. Harris still lost last time when the NDP overall did much better nationally than I think we can assume they will do this time.
No Jack Harris? Liberal landslide. Harris running = 50/50 odds at best for the NDP.
Overall leaning Liberal.
|Jack Harris announced today that he is seriously considering running for his old seat against Nick Whalen. Given the unpopularity and underperformance of Whalen in this riding, I cannot see Harris losing to him in a re-match. This riding has a lot of solid support for Jack Harris and he could easily take this riding back with the levels of support he was accustomed to in previous elections.|
|This riding is an anomaly compared to the others in NL which are almost guaranteed Liberal. Before we label St. John's East as the same, there are some important things to consider. Since joining confederation in 1949, there have been 21 general elections and 1 by-election contested in St. John's East. 15 of those elections were won by Progressive Conservatives/Conservatives, 5 by Liberals, and 3 by NDP (by Jack Harris on all occasions, by-election 1987, general 2008 & 2011). Prior to Whalen winning in 2015, the riding was only Liberal from 1993-1997, and before that 1963-1968. Historically, this is a conservative riding. When Whalen was elected in 2015, the Liberal share of the vote went up by 39% (and Whalen still won with less than 50% of the vote). This jump can almost certainly be attributed to Trudeau's popularity and not to Whalen. Most of the riding has been disillusioned by Whalen's term as MP and his personal popularity is low. The real question in St. John's East is whether Trudeau's popularity is high enough to secure Whalen a second term.|