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References:
Population (2016): Population (2011):Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density |
81979 8193238290 35358 422.87 km² 193.9/km² |
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
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| Seamus O'Regan |
25922 | 57.90% |
| Ryan Cleary ** |
16467 | 36.80% |
| Marek Krol |
2047 | 4.60% |
| Jackson McLean |
365 | 0.80% |
2011 Results (redistributed)
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9366 | 24.21% |
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17924 | 46.33% |
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11103 | 28.70% |
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281 | 0.73% |
Other | |
9 | 0.02%% |
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
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St. John's South-Mount Pearl
(97% of voters in current riding)
2011/2008/2004 Predictions
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
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Avalon
(3% of voters in current riding)
2011/2008/2004 Predictions
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
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| 17/10/19 |
Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188 |
I'm not a fan of O'reagan as our federal minister down here but he's still going to win here. Of note this riding is the only riding that the PPC are running a candidate in this province. |
| 15/10/19 |
R.O. 24.146.17.200 |
This riding hasnt generated a lot of attention but perhaps its worth looking at the race here .Despite the 2015 liberal blowout and Seamus Oregan being an incumbent, I sense this riding will be a closer race this year. Polls for atlantic Canada have consistently shown a closer race with the cpc and greens doing better . the conservatives have historically done well in the St Johns area and hold a lot of the provincial seats in this region. Not sure the ndp will do as well here, keep in mind in 2015 they had an incumbent mp here and he is long since gone. And there main focus is the other St Johns riding not this one. |
| 13/10/19 |
Physastr Master 72.182.105.136 |
If the NDP really is in the mid-to-high-20s in the Atlantic provinces as recent polls have indicated, this will flip NDP. It's probably their 5th best chance in the region, and CBC and tooclosetocall.org both seem to be indicating this is vulnerable. |
| 07/09/19 |
A.S. 99.225.32.21 |
On top of everything, O'Regan's probably earned sympathy for honestly confronting his personal troubles (alcoholism et al). And with his NDP predecessor Ryan Cleary having squandered any sympathy on *his* behalf by hitting the ground running as a (failed) provincial PC candidate, methinks constituents are very much ready to stick with the status quo. |
| 17/06/19 |
Laurence Putnam 96.53.49.70 |
With the Conservatives still on ice in NF&L and the brief NDP experiment over for everyone but Jack Harris, and perhaps even over for him too, this is essentially a default Liberal riding, at least for now. Wouldn't be surprised to see O'Regan come closer to 65-70%. |
| 06/04/19 |
Sam 86.188.96.179 |
This is a riding which in the last ten years has become a Liberal one, other during their 2011 collapse. Seamus O'Regan was a star candidate last time, and is now a prominent face in NL politics. He should win again. |
| 02/04/19 |
The Hedonist 99.247.201.29 |
Liberal hold here. The maritimes have always sort of leaned Liberal bucking national trends, so you tend to look at each riding on a case by case basis here. Even barring Liberal collapse nationally, Seamus is a well liked local candidate and just recently landed 2.5B in equalization payments until 2056 for Newfoundland Labrador. A solid play during campaign time, this will be a Liberal hold. |
| 24/02/19 |
M. Lunn 174.7.100.252 |
Seamus O'Regan may be one of the weaker ministers in the Trudeau cabinet, but at the end of the day will win due to NDP weakness while Tories at least federally are dead here. Yes provincially I suspect much of this area will vote PC, but the NL PCs are your traditional Red Tories like they were back in the 70s, not like your modern federal Tories so unlike in other provinces many provincial PCs won't vote Tory federally. |
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