Election Prediction Project

St. John's South-Mount Pearl
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:28:08

Constituency Profile


Anonsen, Anne Marie

Hayward, Alexandra

Jones, David

Martin, Terry

O'Regan, Seamus

Ruckpaul, Benjamin


Seamus O'Regan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



422.87 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Seamus O'Regan 2592257.90%
Ryan Cleary ** 1646736.80%
Marek Krol 20474.60%
Jackson McLean 3650.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 90.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. John's South-Mount Pearl
   (97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
I'm not a fan of O'reagan as our federal minister down here but he's still going to win here. Of note this riding is the only riding that the PPC are running a candidate in this province.
15/10/19 R.O.
This riding hasn’t generated a lot of attention but perhaps its worth looking at the race here .Despite the 2015 liberal blowout and Seamus O’regan being an incumbent, I sense this riding will be a closer race this year. Polls for atlantic Canada have consistently shown a closer race with the cpc and greens doing better . the conservatives have historically done well in the St Johns area and hold a lot of the provincial seats in this region. Not sure the ndp will do as well here, keep in mind in 2015 they had an incumbent mp here and he is long since gone. And there main focus is the other St Johns riding not this one.
13/10/19 Physastr Master
If the NDP really is in the mid-to-high-20s in the Atlantic provinces as recent polls have indicated, this will flip NDP. It's probably their 5th best chance in the region, and CBC and tooclosetocall.org both seem to be indicating this is vulnerable.
07/09/19 A.S.
On top of everything, O'Regan's probably earned sympathy for honestly confronting his personal troubles (alcoholism et al). And with his NDP predecessor Ryan Cleary having squandered any sympathy on *his* behalf by hitting the ground running as a (failed) provincial PC candidate, methinks constituents are very much ready to stick with the status quo.
17/06/19 Laurence Putnam
With the Conservatives still on ice in NF&L and the brief NDP experiment over for everyone but Jack Harris, and perhaps even over for him too, this is essentially a default Liberal riding, at least for now. Wouldn't be surprised to see O'Regan come closer to 65-70%.
06/04/19 Sam
This is a riding which in the last ten years has become a Liberal one, other during their 2011 collapse. Seamus O'Regan was a star candidate last time, and is now a prominent face in NL politics. He should win again.
02/04/19 The Hedonist
Liberal hold here. The maritimes have always sort of leaned Liberal bucking national trends, so you tend to look at each riding on a case by case basis here.
Even barring Liberal collapse nationally, Seamus is a well liked local candidate and just recently landed 2.5B in equalization payments until 2056 for Newfoundland Labrador. A solid play during campaign time, this will be a Liberal hold.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Seamus O'Regan may be one of the weaker ministers in the Trudeau cabinet, but at the end of the day will win due to NDP weakness while Tories at least federally are dead here. Yes provincially I suspect much of this area will vote PC, but the NL PCs are your traditional Red Tories like they were back in the 70s, not like your modern federal Tories so unlike in other provinces many provincial PCs won't vote Tory federally.

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