Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:33:04

Constituency Profile


MacAulay, Lawrence


Lawrence MacAulay

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2551.09 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Lawrence MacAulay ** 1462165.00%
Julius Patkai 363216.20%
Billy Cann 250311.10%
Teresa Doyle 14346.40%
Christene Squires 2951.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

10/06/19 (Vancouver) Islander
As Sam mentioned, the implication that the Liberals being shut out of the Cardigan region provincially will mean the federal Liberals will do poorly here is misguided. Despite this being arguably the strongest Liberal riding on the island, this area tends to heavily vote PC in most provincial elections anyway, so the recent result is really no surprise. I expect the Greens to have a more-decent-than-usual result this time, but MacAulay isn't in any real danger here.
08/05/19 Craig
Lawrence MacAulay has always held this seat in overwhelming victories. Even in 2011, he won fairly easily, which can be largely attributed to his popularity here. In most other provinces, this would - at a minimum - be an attractive Conservative target, but old habits tend to die hard in PEI.
That said, the provincial results do show some potential, even if the PEI PC's are much closer to the centre than the federal Conservatives or most other provincial Conservative parties. However, making up a 55 point gap is overwhelming and would require a Kim Campbell-like meltdown for the LPC. Should be safe in the end for the red team.
27/04/19 Sam
Any suggestion that the provincial election means that the Liberals (who were shut out here in said election) are at risk is misguided. The PCs always have had crossover appeal, but the Liberals do well here with the national Conservatives on the ballot. Should be an easy re-election for Laurence Macaulay.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Lawrence MacAulay has held this since 1988 and despite a few close calls should hold this again if he runs again and even if not, the memories of the Harper government are still strong enough that while the Tories should do better than they did in 2015, it will be a few election cycles before they are competitive again here.

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