Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Sean Casey **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(100% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|The problem here has been established - the Greens suddenly surging provincially when they only won a mediocre 5% here in 2015 federally makes this a crapshoot to predict how much support the federal Greens can garner here this time. While I agree that provincial and federal election results often don't correlate (especially with the PEI PCs), I think there's generally some correlation when it comes to the Greens, as shown by results on Vancouver Island and in the current boost in the polls the Greens have in the Maritimes currently. However, it's worth pointing out that the Greens didn't really take Charlottetown by a landslide. They only won roughly 37% of the popular vote between the five contested Charlottetown ridings - a pretty fantastic result for a third party in one of the most historically bipartisan provinces in Canada, but not really much more than what the Liberals got. The worst the federal Liberals have done here in recent years was 39%, and that was in 2011 with Ignatieff and they still won. Additionally, as is especially the case with Cardigan and Malpeque, PC voters are not necessarily Conservative voters, and I don't imagine the Conservatives will reach competitive levels here this time considering how far they dropped.|
Besides how strong the Greens are here federally, I think three more questions need to be answered here. First, I'd imagine much of the NDP vote from 2015 will bleed over to the Greens, but we don't know how many federal Liberal voters here are actually receptive to the Greens as opposed to being adamant Liberal supporters, since the political landscape hadn't shaken as much on PEI until after the last federal election. Second, we don't know if the Greens' recent provincial result is a near a ceiling, or if there was a contingent of potential Green supporters that voted Liberal or PC out of skepticism. Third, how viable of a candidate is Darcie Lanthier over an incumbent Sean Casey?
While I think that a Liberal win here is definitely the safest bet, the little uncertainties with the level of Green support here means I have no concrete opinion for this one at this point.
|I am no Liberal advocate, and I've been confident about the Green's chances elsewhere, but some questions remain unanswered here. First of all, if Guelph is listed as Liberal on this (which I agree with,) I'm not entirely sure why this would be closer, the provincial result there was better than here; the Greens did better and the Liberals actually won two seats against the odds as opposed to placing fourth. This area is still ripe for a Green breakthrough, the Southern part of the riding could see many Green votes, and whereas the Liberals have to worry about 6 or so seats in New Brunswick, this and another seat in PEI, 5 seats in Nova Scotia and 1 in Newfoundland, the Greens can focus on two in Atlantic Canada. Naturally the Liberals have a fundraising advantage, so that may be offset. Sean Casey is a good MP, and unlike in Guelph/Esquimalt etc. this riding is tiny, and Sean will be a more localised and recognisable face within the community. The Greens tend to do better in open races anyway (or NDP seats), not ones with a decent Liberal incumbent. But ultimately the provincial election is a completely different scenario. That was a choice between which of the other two parties (the NDP had no representation or momentum here) could be trusted as an alternative to the long-serving Liberals. The federal election will be a straight battle between the Liberals and Conservatives. As I spend some of my time in the UK, I remember 2015 - there UKIP were polling similarly, having also held two seats at dissolution, and we were talking about UKIP winning seats like Castle Point, Boston and Skegness, Great Grimsby and of course South Thanet. The GPEW were wondering if they could gain Norwich South (where they went backwards) and Bristol West. In reality, they won a single seat. Now, I'm not saying that the GPC will do as badly, but I'm saying that once they get their four on Vancouver Island, it's going to be a tough fight from there. So I'll call this as Liberal for now. But if the Greens are truly contesting, that is a different scenario to our current one, and so at that point I will reconsider. Otherwise, this is a Liberal seat, and should certainly stay that way.|
|Even in 2011, this riding stuck with the Liberals where they garnered about 40% of the vote. If there is a possibility of a Conservative government happening, I highly doubt a long-time Liberal stronghold will dump a well established MP to elect a member of a party that never had official status. If the winds of change blow, and the Greens look poised to enter opposition (or even seriously rival the NDP for third party status), then I'll say Green have hope here.|
Remember: provincial and federal elections are two very different beasts.
|Charlottetown could be surprisingly interesting in October. The question is - will the provincial results translate to the federal scene? The PEI Greens won most of the seats here, with the Liberals largely getting the rest. With the Conservatives irrelevant, it should be a Green-Liberal battle with no real chance of a vote split threat.|
Working in the Liberals' favour are a strong, entrenched candidate in Sean Casey, a seat that has been Liberal literally forever and the large government workforce. That said, this is the perfect type of riding for the GPC to make an eastern breakthrough and Charlottetown is a lot like Fredericton in many ways, albeit without any real CPC potential due to the weaker party in PEI. Sean Casey will have an unlikely fight...
|Arguably the most likely riding outside of BC to go Green. However, a lot of the support for the Greens is due to their provincial leader. A recent MQO Research poll showed the federal Greens at around 18% which based on the broad support the Greens saw provincially translates to the mid-20s at best for this riding. A good performance for the party, but not enough to win at this point.|
|The recent PEI election is certainly a game changer with the rise of the Green Party.. The result here will be a narrow Liberal win with the Green Party finishing a close second.|
||Right Honourable Adult|
|I've been sitting on this opinion since before the PEI election, but now that it's done and won I'm willing to bet tha that the Greens open an eastern front this year. Yes, their vote always disapoints in the end but they've got a popular local leader here now who is also leader of the Official Opposition. Chances are, this newfound clout will transform into some tangibles that the federal party will be able to use (along with a strong local campaign) to flip this one as the Liberals test the patience of even the ever-loyal Islanders.|
|Whilst there have been suggestions elsewhere that the Conservatives may take this, albeit from less reliable sources, the demographics are against them here. As a result, it's hard to see the Liberals losing this. The NDP are also out of it, with Joe Byrne running provincially rather than federally.|
|As a government town with a university, Tories too weak to be a real challenge. NDP doing poorly while the Greens thanks to popularity of their provincial leader should do better than normal, but probably not enough to win thus Liberal hold.|