Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:33:22

Constituency Profile


Morrissey, Bobby


Bobby Morrissey

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1483.14 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bobby Morrissey 1052149.30%
Gail Shea ** 618529.00%
Herb Dickieson 409719.20%
Nils Ling 5592.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

08/06/19 Physastr Master
I agree with the previous posts, Gail Shea clearly inflated Con numbers and without her I don't think the Cons are favoured. Cardigan and Malpeque are much more vulnerable to the Cons. The provincial trends here are interesting, as the PCs did fairly poorly here, with the Greens sweeping Summerside and Liberals doing well across the rest of the riding. I think Herb Dickieson's candidacy for the NDP probably explains why the Greens were so weak in 2015, so if Herb runs again then the 3-way split on the anti-Con vote will make the Cons competitive. Otherwise, The riding is probably leaning Liberal for now, but could go Green if Trudeau keeps slipping.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
As Dr Bear said, this was a Shea seat, not a conservative seat. Look at the provincial trends as well and the PEI PC Party is stronger in Cardigan, rather than Egmont.
05/04/19 Sam
I largely agree with what Dr Bear said, but with the shift away from the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, there are circumstances in which the Liberals could definitely lose, even with an MP like Bobby Morrissey.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This is normally a Liberal leaning and only went Tory to Gail O'Shea's popularity, but now that she is gone and considering how unpopular the Harper government still remains in PEI, while likely stay Liberal albeit by a somewhat tighter margin.

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