Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Egmont
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:33:22
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Morrissey, Bobby


Incumbent:

Bobby Morrissey

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

34168
34598

16459
14301

1483.14 km²
23.0/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bobby Morrissey 1052149.30%
Gail Shea ** 618529.00%
Herb Dickieson 409719.20%
Nils Ling 5592.60%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1046754.65%
236912.37%
599731.31%
3201.67%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Egmont
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


08/06/19 Physastr Master
205.250.221.189
I agree with the previous posts, Gail Shea clearly inflated Con numbers and without her I don't think the Cons are favoured. Cardigan and Malpeque are much more vulnerable to the Cons. The provincial trends here are interesting, as the PCs did fairly poorly here, with the Greens sweeping Summerside and Liberals doing well across the rest of the riding. I think Herb Dickieson's candidacy for the NDP probably explains why the Greens were so weak in 2015, so if Herb runs again then the 3-way split on the anti-Con vote will make the Cons competitive. Otherwise, The riding is probably leaning Liberal for now, but could go Green if Trudeau keeps slipping.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
184.146.168.170
As Dr Bear said, this was a Shea seat, not a conservative seat. Look at the provincial trends as well and the PEI PC Party is stronger in Cardigan, rather than Egmont.
05/04/19 Sam
86.28.79.130
I largely agree with what Dr Bear said, but with the shift away from the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, there are circumstances in which the Liberals could definitely lose, even with an MP like Bobby Morrissey.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
This is normally a Liberal leaning and only went Tory to Gail O'Shea's popularity, but now that she is gone and considering how unpopular the Harper government still remains in PEI, while likely stay Liberal albeit by a somewhat tighter margin.



Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster