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Malpeque
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:33:25
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Easter, Wayne


Incumbent:

Wayne Easter

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

36030
35039

18638
14323

1607.46 km²
22.4/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Wayne Easter ** 1395062.10%
Stephen Stewart 394717.60%
Leah-Jane Hayward 250911.20%
Lynne Lund 20669.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

793439.10%
297014.63%
860542.40%
7853.87%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Malpeque
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


09/06/19 Craig
24.213.108.184
The most recent polls showed the Liberals were tied or trailing in Atlantic Canada, and that includes PEI. Surely Conservative support has to come from somewhere? This is the best of the four ridings provincially for the PEI PC's, and while they are definitely more moderate than the federal Conservatives, that may be a clue.
I'm still skeptical that the low ebb will hold up and Wayne Easter is a formidable candidate. However, if the CPC do pick up a seat in PEI, Malpeque will likely be the first one. A stronger Green vote might split the vote to help them too. At this point, I'd say too close to call, perhaps slight advantage Liberals, but will be MUCH closer than in 2015.
08/06/19 Physastr Master
205.250.221.189
This looks like an easy liberal win, their victory was pretty resounding in 2015. However, the 338 polling aggregate has the Cons essentially tied with the Libs at 31% on PEI, with the Greens at a pretty respectable 23%, so calling 2/4 ridings for the Libs seems premature. The question, then, is where the Liberal, Green and Conservative support is concentrated. I think the provincial election is probably the best indicator for trends in PEI, as the numbers weren't too far off the current federal numbers. If we go by that, Egmont looks competitive GPC/LPC, Cardigan probably leans CPC over LPC, Charlottetown competitive GPC/LPC, and Malpeque competitive GPC/CPC. This is all very speculative, however, so TCTC across the board for now.
05/04/19 Sam
86.28.79.130
Although the PCs and Greens do best here provincially, Wayne Easter has consistently run up decent margins and should win again. The Liberals aren't doing well in Atlantic Canada but that shift is more apparent in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia where the Conservatives have some standing.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
If either the Greens or Tories were to win a riding in PEI, it would be this one as PEI Green leader who is very popular comes from this area and Tories do somewhat better here plus vote splits from Greens. Nonetheless Wayne Easter has been here since 1993 and survived even the 2011 disaster so I suspect he will have no difficulty holding this. Once he retires this might be more competitive.



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