Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Cape Breton-Canso
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:33:49
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Cuzner, Rodger


Incumbent:

Rodger Cuzner

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

71913
75247

37977
31246

8752.81 km²
8.2/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rodger Cuzner ** 3216374.40%
Adam Daniel Rodgers 624614.40%
Michelle Smith 35478.20%
Maria Goretti Coady 12813.00%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1271932.61%
781720.04%
1719644.09%
12643.24%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Cape Breton-Canso
   (90.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Central Nova
   (9.05% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


17/04/19 Craig
24.213.108.184
I wouldn't put too much into the fact that the Nova Scotia PC's won here in 2017. Unlike in most other provinces, they are very much Red Tories and much closer to the federal Liberals. Cape Breton has been a Liberal fortress for decades and there is no reason why it won't continue to be in 2019.
Sure, this is a largely rural and working class riding, but populism has never sold well in Nova Scotia. The fact that Rodger Cuzner won by 60 points in 2015 would make it nearly impossible to overcome. SNC-Lavalin should barely put a dent into the vote here. With Red Toryism pretty much dead in national conservative parties, the Liberals are made in the shade...
11/03/19 COAST TO COAST TO COAST
99.226.134.34
This seat was the Liberals 4th best seat nationwide in 2015. Definitely a safe seat for the Liberals this year.
07/03/19 MF
69.159.84.69
This is now one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, don't see SNC-Lavalin tanking the Liberals in Cape Breton.
24/02/19 Sam
109.150.190.148
Probably the Nova Scotia riding Liberals can be most confident about, given the fact Rodger Cuzner, a longtime incumbent is running for re-election in a seat that was over 70% Liberal in 2015. It was one of the first to be called on election night and it should be again.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
Even though this area went PC provincially, it is solidly Liberal federally so whether Cuzner runs or not, I expect the Liberals to hold this one.



Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster