|Either all of EPP or Alfie McLeod has misjudged this completely, and I'd come down on our side. This riding did not only vote over 70% Liberal, but in terms of the whole electorate, Rodger Cuzner won a majority of all electors, not just those who turned out. His retirement will dent the Liberal margin here, but I reckon the Liberals can still get over 50%.|
|A Very strong Liberal seat once represented by Liberal luminaries like Allan MacEachern and that most honest of Liberal Cabinet Ministers, David Dingwall who was shamelessly proud to declare: I am entitled to my entitlements. |
Only a highly organized NDP effort, matched by a strong national campaign could dislodge the Liberals from this seat. The Tories would need to run the ghost of Robert Stanfield and get a 1958 or 1984 style landslide. So that won't happen.
|Roger Cuzner or not, it will be a very tough task to overcome the Liberal strength in this riding, especially with the NDP polling so low.|
|I just realized that this will be the first time that no incumbent will be on the ballot for this area since 1974. Donald MacInnis who was the last Tory MP in this area did not re-offer in that election. Here is a list of the incumbent in each election since.|
Rodger Cuzner (Liberal): 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2015
Michelle Dockrill (NDP): 2000
David Dingwall (Liberal): 1984, 1988, 1993, 1997
Andrew Hogan (NDP): 1979, 1980
|Sure, Rodger Cuzner is retiring, but it won't matter. Cape Breton-Canso has long been one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada. Even in 2011, Cuzner won fairly easily, while in 2015 it was a 60-point blowout. With those kind of margins, the real election will be in the LPC nomination meeting.|
Like next door in Sydney-Victoria, the mainly rural/small town and working class demographics would suggest this would be a Conservative riding (or Conservative-NDP battleground). However, Nova Scotia tends to march to a different tune with populism not well liked here and old habits die hard. For that reason, even with an open seat, the Liberals should win again very easily here. If this swings blue or orange, the LPC will be heading for Kim Campbell territory...
|Rodger Cuzner is not running in the next election. Also, Alfie Macleod who is a popular local MLA might run as a Conservative in this riding. If the Liberals pick an largely unknown person the results will be much closer than last time.|
|Turns out Cuzner is stepping down; he'll be a loss to the House. Nevertheless, this a Liberal stronghold and they'll win again.|
|I wouldn't put too much into the fact that the Nova Scotia PC's won here in 2017. Unlike in most other provinces, they are very much Red Tories and much closer to the federal Liberals. Cape Breton has been a Liberal fortress for decades and there is no reason why it won't continue to be in 2019.|
Sure, this is a largely rural and working class riding, but populism has never sold well in Nova Scotia. The fact that Rodger Cuzner won by 60 points in 2015 would make it nearly impossible to overcome. SNC-Lavalin should barely put a dent into the vote here. With Red Toryism pretty much dead in national conservative parties, the Liberals are made in the shade...
||COAST TO COAST TO COAST|
|This seat was the Liberals 4th best seat nationwide in 2015. Definitely a safe seat for the Liberals this year.|
|This is now one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, don't see SNC-Lavalin tanking the Liberals in Cape Breton.|
|Probably the Nova Scotia riding Liberals can be most confident about, given the fact Rodger Cuzner, a longtime incumbent is running for re-election in a seat that was over 70% Liberal in 2015. It was one of the first to be called on election night and it should be again.|
|Even though this area went PC provincially, it is solidly Liberal federally so whether Cuzner runs or not, I expect the Liberals to hold this one.|