Election Prediction Project

Central Nova
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:33:53

Constituency Profile


Fraser, Sean S.


Sean Fraser

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



9307.83 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sean Fraser 2590958.50%
Fred DeLorey 1141825.80%
Ross Landry 453210.20%
David Hachey 18344.10%
Alexander J. MacKenzie 5701.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 570.15%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Central Nova
   (87.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
   (7.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Sackville-Eastern Shore
   (5.28% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/06/19 Craig
Advantage Conservatives right now. At first, I thought the Liberals would hold Central Nova as long as Peter Mackay was not the candidate. However, polls are showing a lead for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada. Since this is probably the 2nd best Conservative seat in Nova Scotia, it has to be seen as a strong target for them as Trudeau's support collapses.
That said, things can change on a dime, and the LPC has strong incumbency while even Mackay never won overwhelmingly in what is largely a Red Tory riding where populism hasn't really taken hold. However, if the numbers are right - the CPC should take this back.
02/06/19 seasaw
The Tories are polling significantly higher than 2015, and by the looks of it they're going to win 4-5 Atlantic Canada seats. This will be one.
16/05/19 Laurence Putnam
I've hesitated on this and had I been put on the spot two months ago I would have said this stays Liberal. Now that Liberals are consistently polling at half the level of support they won the Atlantic with last time and with the Conservatives slowly, steadily climbing in Atlantic Canada, this naturally and historically Conservative riding is very much in play and will no doubt be a top target of Tory HQ. While not likely to yield Peter MacKay style numbers, a solid 40-45% win is looking increasingly likely if current trends continue.
19/03/19 Sam
As an initial projection, this is probably going to be a race with lots of varying outcomes. The Liberals have the benefit of incumbency and this is a province which has definitely created improving prospects for them. The high tide of 2015 however is out, and I would expect the Conservatives to have a very strong chance here. Cumberland-Colchester and West Nova are better for them, but on a very good night this and others can be added. Too early to call.
13/03/19 Murphy
Difficult to give a prediction on this riding as the Conservatives and NDP have not announced their candidates and no potential nominees have formally declared. This will be one to watch, especially depending on the Conservative nominee.
At the moment this seat is a toss up but I would give the edge to the Liberals. Although this seat appears to be as Conservative as Cumberland - Colchester next door, much of that was due to high profile MP Peter McKay. After winning 5 elections here, he still only topped over 50% once in the 2011 blue wave. It is interesting that he NEVER attained the 58% Sean Fraser received in 2015. With Sean Fraser as the current incumbent and Peter McKay now gone, the Liberals have the edge in this riding. A 32 point may be too far to overcome for the Conservatives.
05/03/19 Neal
2015 was an anomaly, and i think the Tories will be establishing a beach head in NS again, 2-3 seats, and Central nova will be one of them.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This area is somewhat conservative leaning, but considering it is more of a Red Tory area plus has an incumbent, I think the Liberals will hold this but by a narrower margin. Nonetheless wouldn't be surprised if Peter MacKay someday returns to politics and when that happens, I suspect this will return to its Tory roots.

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