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Halifax West
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:34:03
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Regan, Geoff

Zurawski, Richard


Incumbent:

Geoff Regan

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

96255
87275

42370
40438

227.35 km²
423.4/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Geoff Regan ** 3437768.60%
Michael McGinnis 783715.60%
Joanne Hussey 589411.80%
Richard Henryk Zurawski 19713.90%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1200530.18%
1131728.45%
1482437.27%
16324.10%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Halifax West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


19/05/19 Sam
86.139.26.229
I recently saw a suggestion that the Greens could win here. Not with a Regan running, and unlikely anyway. With a huge share of the vote last time, the Liberals have to be shedding tens of thousands of votes to give them a chance, and whilst they've done that before, they're not going to all go to a party that has never held official party status. The NDP are also really weak here, leaving the Conservatives and the Liberals. And between those two, the Liberals will definitely come out on top.
17/04/19 Craig
24.213.108.184
One of the top 10 safest Liberal seats in Canada. Geoff Regan is also running again and is incredibly popular. He survived 2011 and got nearly 70% last time around when Trudeau had God-like approval ratings in Atlantic Canada. The PM may not be as popular now, but he is still by far the most popular federal leader in Nova Scotia.
In addition, the fundamentals here would be strongly in the Liberals' favour. Unlike the Cape Breton fortresses where historical trends dominate, this is fairly well educated and has a large population of government employees. As a result, it's hard to imagine either the Conservatives or NDP winning in Halifax West anytime soon. Certainly not in 2019.
11/03/19 COAST TO COAST TO COAST
99.226.134.34
After the Cape Breton seats, Halifax West is the safest Liberal seat in Nova Scotia. The speaker of the house will have no problem keeping this seat in the Liberal column.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
Liberals held this even during the 2011 disaster so even if Tories and NDP do better than expected in Atlantic Canada, I expect this to stay Liberal.



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