Election Prediction Project

Halifax West
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:29:01

Constituency Profile


Regan, Geoff

Shuman, Fred

Wilson, Jacob

Zurawski, Richard


Geoff Regan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



227.35 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Geoff Regan ** 3437768.60%
Michael McGinnis 783715.60%
Joanne Hussey 589411.80%
Richard Henryk Zurawski 19713.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Halifax West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Regan should win here easily. The Liberals could lose Halifax itself but they won't lose Halifax West.
11/09/19 R.O.
Geoff Regan is the house speaker and should have no trouble holding his riding although with more realistic numbers than 2015 .
10/09/19 A.S.
Pre-Kim Campbell, the dominant pattern here would have been more that of a suburban Tory seat. Now, it's likelier to be NS's Last Liberal Standing.
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Regan is absolutely safe; any suggestion to the contrary is merely partisan wishful thinking.
19/05/19 Sam
I recently saw a suggestion that the Greens could win here. Not with a Regan running, and unlikely anyway. With a huge share of the vote last time, the Liberals have to be shedding tens of thousands of votes to give them a chance, and whilst they've done that before, they're not going to all go to a party that has never held official party status. The NDP are also really weak here, leaving the Conservatives and the Liberals. And between those two, the Liberals will definitely come out on top.
17/04/19 Craig
One of the top 10 safest Liberal seats in Canada. Geoff Regan is also running again and is incredibly popular. He survived 2011 and got nearly 70% last time around when Trudeau had God-like approval ratings in Atlantic Canada. The PM may not be as popular now, but he is still by far the most popular federal leader in Nova Scotia.
In addition, the fundamentals here would be strongly in the Liberals' favour. Unlike the Cape Breton fortresses where historical trends dominate, this is fairly well educated and has a large population of government employees. As a result, it's hard to imagine either the Conservatives or NDP winning in Halifax West anytime soon. Certainly not in 2019.
After the Cape Breton seats, Halifax West is the safest Liberal seat in Nova Scotia. The speaker of the house will have no problem keeping this seat in the Liberal column.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Liberals held this even during the 2011 disaster so even if Tories and NDP do better than expected in Atlantic Canada, I expect this to stay Liberal.

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