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Kings-Hants
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-03-15 21:27:26
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



MacQuarrie, Martha


Incumbent:

Scott Brison

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

83465
83306

38917
35202

4124.46 km²
20.2/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Scott Brison ** 3302670.70%
David Morse 867718.60%
Hugh Curry 29986.40%
Will Cooper 15693.40%
Megan Brown-Hodges 1840.40%
Edd Twohig 1320.30%
Clifford James Williams 1000.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1471436.63%
804320.03%
1588739.56%
15203.78%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Kings-Hants
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


02/06/19 seasaw
99.225.244.232
While this is more of a Scott Brison riding, and his departure will weaken the Liberals quite a bit, I still think the Liberals have enough strength to pull a victory.
24/05/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
My early gut feel is that the Liberals shed 20 points from their last result, but still win comfortably...this time. The departure of Scott Brison and a greatly increased result for the Conservatives, while still a loss, will serve to attract better Tory candidates next time and probably put this riding back into contention in 2023.
15/05/19 Craig
130.18.104.137
This will be a test without Scott Brison, but his presence will surely still be felt in the Liberal campaign. The LPC certainly won't get anywhere near 70% of the vote (more due to the decline of Liberal fortunes in Atlantic Canada), but they are definitely still in the driver's seat. I'd give them the edge at this point.
This is still Red Tory/Liberal territory that would be naturally closer to the modern Liberals than the modern Conservatives, while the old Reform/Alliance always got annihilated here. I'd want to see province-by-province breakdowns of the Atlantic numbers before giving the CPC a shot here. Likely Liberal for now, even without Brison.
14/03/19 Dr.Bear
204.187.20.70
Time to see if this has truly become a Liberal riding or a Scott Brison riding. My instincts tell me both, as folks probably got accustomed to voting red over the last couple of decades. So likely a Liberal hold but I'm being cautious and listing it TCTC for now.
13/03/19 Sam
86.28.79.130
Thanks to Scott Brison's retirement and the increasingly apparent Liberal decline, the Conservatives have an opening here, and this could well be their only chance to take it. A Liberal hold is still likely but neither party can be ruled out.
11/03/19 COAST TO COAST TO COAST
99.226.134.34
Now that Scott Brison has retired from politics, the Liberals will definitely not be getting over 70% here in 2019. This was definitely a Scott Brison seat. However in recent years NS is trending further towards the Liberals than any other province. I think the 52% vote spread in 2015 will be too much for the Conservatives to overcome.
11/03/19 Mubs
151.124.225.52
The legacy of Brison should ensure that this riding remains Liberal albeit with a reduced margin.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
Scott Brison not running does give the Tories an opening, but considering in recent provincial elections they haven't done well here and considering how badly they lost this in 2015, probably a bridge too far. Nonetheless I expect things to tighten up and if the Tories start to get competitive in Atlantic Canada I may change my prediction, but for now Liberal hold by a narrower margin.



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