Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:29:10

Constituency Profile


Copley, Kevin

Edmonds, Anthony

Hogg, Sybil

Samson, Darrell

Stickland, Matt


Darrell Samson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



644.93 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Darrell Samson 2316148.00%
Peter Stoffer ** 1661334.40%
Robert Thomas Strickland 718614.90%
Mike Montgomery 13412.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 30.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Sackville-Eastern Shore
   (99.65% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
   (0.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
This was probably more a Peter Stoffer riding than anything else. He's not on the ballot this time. Given the Liberal brand strength out this way Samson should hold on for the Liberals.
13/10/19 Physastr Master
It may be that this was a Peter Stoffer riding rather than an NDP one, but with the NDP polling in the low-to-high-20s in the Atlantic provinces, ridings like this are in play
25/08/20 A.S.
Let's remember that subsequent #MeToo accusations would have hampered a Stoffer re-bid--and on top of that is the provincial NDP losing Sackville-Cobequid to the Tories in a byelection, a seat the party had held since *1984*. Because of all this, things look more likely set to return to a pre-90s Maritime Lib vs PC technical norm; and it'd be more McNeil than Justin backlash that'd threaten Samson--but it's also a more squarely "suburban Halifax" riding than that which first elected Stoffer, which works to the Libs' generic favour these days.
28/06/19 Laurence Putnam
Agree 100% this was a Peter Stoffer riding...not an NDP riding. Of course, there are no longer any NDP seats in Atlantic Canada anyway, and with the possible exception of Jack Harris I would imagine it will stay that way.
The Liberals won handily over the NDP in 2015. This was against popular MP Peter Stoffer. Now that the Liberals have the incumbent and Stoffer is apparently not running, this should stay with the Liberals this year.
25/02/19 Sam
Given the traditional strength of the NDP in the Halifax area, it might be assumed that they have a good shot here, but with the NDP losing its Atlantic Canada base, and the retirement of Peter Stoffer, the 48% Darrell Samson received last time is likely to hold up better than other ridings in the region and translate into a Liberal win, but this is far from certain at this stage. I would still however call it as a Liberal riding this October.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This was more a Peter Stoffer riding than NDP one, so with him not running again, should stay Liberal. Tories are very weak even in the rural parts of the HRM, Cumberland-Colchester is the only Nova Scotia riding I could realistically see them gaining.

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