Election Prediction Project

South Shore-St. Margarets
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:34:33

Constituency Profile


Jordan, Bernadette

Perkins, Richard D.

Trappenberg, Thomas


Bernadette Jordan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



8474.95 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bernadette Jordan 3004556.90%
Richard Clark 1190522.60%
Alex Godbold 888316.80%
Richard Biggar 15342.90%
Trevor Bruhm 2570.50%
Ryan Barry 1510.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   South Shore-St. Margaret's
   (88.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Halifax West
   (11.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

30/03/19 Murphy
I'm placing this as TCTC for now, but it is trending favourably towards the Conservatives, along with Atlantic Canada as a whole. Recent polls indicate the Conservatives lead the Liberals in the region, which should help them in bellwether ridings such as this one. Although, this riding is more Liberal-friendly since 2011 than in the past, it is likely a two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives, but if the Liberals continue to bleed support, they could be in for a tight race.
South Shore-St. Margarets is a unique riding in Nova Scotia. It is the first on the list of rural ridings in NS where in the past the Conservatives have benefited from the Liberal-NDP vote split. The previous Conservative MP who held the seat from 1997-2015 only averaged 38% over his 6 elections. Now that the left has been consolidating around the Liberals in NS, Cabinet Minister Bernadette Jordan should have no problem retaining her seat.
02/03/19 Sam
The Conservatives have increased opportunities in Nova Scotia but this isn't one of them. It was a surprise that they won this riding in the last few elections, and now that the centre/centre-left vote has consolidated around the incumbent Liberal MP, who is a Cabinet Minister, it makes the chances of a Conservative gain very low.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Gerald Keddy from 1997 to 2011 never won this by very much and he benefitted from a much stronger NDP to split the left wing vote. So while I could see the Tories rebounding to the mid to upper 30s if things go in their favour, they likely won't have the splits they did in the past.

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