Election Prediction Project

South Shore-St. Margarets
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:34:33

Constituency Profile


Jordan, Bernadette

Perkins, Richard D.

Trappenberg, Thomas


Bernadette Jordan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



8474.95 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bernadette Jordan 3004556.90%
Richard Clark 1190522.60%
Alex Godbold 888316.80%
Richard Biggar 15342.90%
Trevor Bruhm 2570.50%
Ryan Barry 1510.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   South Shore-St. Margaret's
   (88.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Halifax West
   (11.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/05/19 Craig
I'd definitely give the Liberals the upper hand here still. Sure, they have dropped significantly in the polls in Atlantic Canada, but we have to remember a couple things. Gerald Keddy never won by very much, and he was a very Red Tory who would probably fit better in today's Liberals. It's likely the Conservative ceiling is in the low to mid-30s as a result. The NDP have had solid support here too but it collapsed in 2015.
For those reasons, Bernadette Jordan should feel at least fairly confident about her chances of a second term. Once the campaign begins, likely issues of immigration and the environment will likely swing this seat into the red column more solidly too. Her biggest danger might be if the Greens can rise or the NDP can break out once again, since it would take a strong vote split to give the CPC any chance.
01/05/19 Sam
As with a few other ridings, I recognise the state of play has changed since the beginning of the year, and I'll now put it in play.
30/03/19 Murphy
I'm placing this as TCTC for now, but it is trending favourably towards the Conservatives, along with Atlantic Canada as a whole. Recent polls indicate the Conservatives lead the Liberals in the region, which should help them in bellwether ridings such as this one. Although, this riding is more Liberal-friendly since 2011 than in the past, it is likely a two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives, but if the Liberals continue to bleed support, they could be in for a tight race.
South Shore-St. Margarets is a unique riding in Nova Scotia. It is the first on the list of rural ridings in NS where in the past the Conservatives have benefited from the Liberal-NDP vote split. The previous Conservative MP who held the seat from 1997-2015 only averaged 38% over his 6 elections. Now that the left has been consolidating around the Liberals in NS, Cabinet Minister Bernadette Jordan should have no problem retaining her seat.
02/03/19 Sam
The Conservatives have increased opportunities in Nova Scotia but this isn't one of them. It was a surprise that they won this riding in the last few elections, and now that the centre/centre-left vote has consolidated around the incumbent Liberal MP, who is a Cabinet Minister, it makes the chances of a Conservative gain very low.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Gerald Keddy from 1997 to 2011 never won this by very much and he benefitted from a much stronger NDP to split the left wing vote. So while I could see the Tories rebounding to the mid to upper 30s if things go in their favour, they likely won't have the splits they did in the past.

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