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South Shore-St. Margarets
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:34:33
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Jordan, Bernadette

Perkins, Richard D.

Trappenberg, Thomas


Incumbent:

Bernadette Jordan

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

91830
92561

49931
40529

8474.95 km²
10.8/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bernadette Jordan 3004556.90%
Richard Clark 1190522.60%
Alex Godbold 888316.80%
Richard Biggar 15342.90%
Trevor Bruhm 2570.50%
Ryan Barry 1510.30%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1970941.98%
1694036.08%
843117.96%
18764.00%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   South Shore-St. Margaret's
   (88.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Halifax West
   (11.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


30/03/19 Murphy
142.68.219.74
I'm placing this as TCTC for now, but it is trending favourably towards the Conservatives, along with Atlantic Canada as a whole. Recent polls indicate the Conservatives lead the Liberals in the region, which should help them in bellwether ridings such as this one. Although, this riding is more Liberal-friendly since 2011 than in the past, it is likely a two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives, but if the Liberals continue to bleed support, they could be in for a tight race.
11/03/19 COAST TO COAST TO COAST
99.226.134.34
South Shore-St. Margarets is a unique riding in Nova Scotia. It is the first on the list of rural ridings in NS where in the past the Conservatives have benefited from the Liberal-NDP vote split. The previous Conservative MP who held the seat from 1997-2015 only averaged 38% over his 6 elections. Now that the left has been consolidating around the Liberals in NS, Cabinet Minister Bernadette Jordan should have no problem retaining her seat.
02/03/19 Sam
109.148.237.245
The Conservatives have increased opportunities in Nova Scotia but this isn't one of them. It was a surprise that they won this riding in the last few elections, and now that the centre/centre-left vote has consolidated around the incumbent Liberal MP, who is a Cabinet Minister, it makes the chances of a Conservative gain very low.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
Gerald Keddy from 1997 to 2011 never won this by very much and he benefitted from a much stronger NDP to split the left wing vote. So while I could see the Tories rebounding to the mid to upper 30s if things go in their favour, they likely won't have the splits they did in the past.



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