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Sydney-Victoria
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:34:49
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Incumbent:

Mark Eyking

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

72148
73328

35210
31485

4312.87 km²
16.7/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mark Eyking ** 2999573.20%
Monika Dutt 535113.10%
John Douglas Chiasson 436010.60%
Adrianna MacKinnon 10262.50%
Wayne James Hiscock 2420.60%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1402337.85%
704919.03%
1478839.91%
11913.21%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Sydney-Victoria
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


14/06/19 seasaw
99.225.244.232
With Mark Eyking's retirement, this riding's become more competitive than before. I expect the Liberals to drop 20 points from their 2015 showing, I expect the Tories to pick up 60% of the dropped votes and the Greens the rest. That would make it Liberal 53%, CPC 22%, NDP 13%, Green 10%. More competitive, yet still a Liberal landslide.
25/05/19 Sam
86.153.36.188
What is Eddie Orrell doing? If anything, I would expect a defeated provincial Liberal like David Wilton to run here, not an incumbent PC MLA. Even if he wins the CPC nomination as is likely, there are at present no signs of anything other than a Liberal win here. The Liberals have always done well in Cape Breton - the last time they went another way was in 1997, and the incumbent Liberals may have angered some people, but they haven't angered Nova Scotians like in 1997. On top of that, the two Cape Breton seats were seats where the Liberals won a majority of electors - an impressive feat. Whilst I doubt the next Liberal MP will have anything going for them like Mark Eyking or Rodger Cuzner, they should win.
25/05/19 Sam
86.153.36.188
What is Eddie Orrell doing? If anything, I would expect a defeated provincial Liberal like David Wilton to run here, not an incumbent PC MLA. Even if he wins the CPC nomination as is likely, there are at present no signs of anything other than a Liberal win here. The Liberals have always done well in Cape Breton - the last time they went another way was in 1997, and the incumbent Liberals may have angered some people, but they haven't angered Nova Scotians like in 1997. On top of that, the two Cape Breton seats were seats where the Liberals won a majority of electors - an impressive feat. Whilst I doubt the next Liberal MP will have anything going for them like Mark Eyking or Rodger Cuzner, (other than Jamie Battiste who would be a star candidate) they should win anyway.
30/04/19 Stevo
165.225.76.101
I wonder if I will ever again see a non-Liberal MP from Cape Breton in my lifetime (I'm in my 30s). There were the fluky NDP wins in 1997 due to backlash over Chretien/Martin's EI changes, but aside from that it's been perma-Liberal usually by gargatuan margins since forever. Even Mulroney only scored 1/4 in Cape Breton (winning one of the two seats in 1984 and neither in 1988). As mentioned below, by rights this region should be fertile ground for both the NDP and Tories but the ‘stubborn Liberal’ vote is far too entrenched for either party to exert much effort.
17/04/19 Craig
24.213.108.184
If Sydney-Victoria was almost anywhere else in Canada, it would be a Conservative-NDP battleground being highly industrialized and working class. However, Nova Scotia is not like most provinces - populism does not fly at all. Yes, the Nova Scotia PC's did well here in 2017, but they tend to be very much Red Tories, unlike in most other provinces - hence it's not a good indicator.
The 60 point margin is virtually impossible to overcome. Sure it was close in 2015, but that was during a Liberal meltdown and there is no indication that Scheer is making any inroads in Nova Scotia. Mark Eyking may not be back, but the color of the seat will remain red. The real election will be in the LPC nomination meeting...
14/04/19 Sam
86.153.36.203
Safe Liberal. It will be interesting to see who their candidate is here, indeed, the nomination race is the real contest.
11/03/19 COAST TO COAST TO COAST
99.226.134.34
This was the Liberals 5th best seat nationwide in 2015. Definitely a Liberal hold.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
Mark Eyking maybe retiring and this area may have gone solidly PC provincially, but federally this is a very safe Liberal riding and the fact they couldn't win this even in the best of conditions in 2011, suggests Liberals should hold this.



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