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West Nova
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:34:57
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Incumbent:

Colin Fraser

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

82026
83654

43132
36406

8885.44 km²
9.2/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Colin Fraser 2877563.00%
Arnold LeBlanc 1191626.10%
Greg Foster 30846.80%
Clark Walton 19044.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2020447.04%
563113.11%
1563236.39%
14873.46%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   West Nova
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


13/03/19 Sam
86.28.79.130
This is going to be hotly contested. Due to the strength of the Liberals last time, they should not be ruled out, but the Conservatives have a huge chance in taking this with Chris d'Entremont and the lack of incumbency. They are properly competing in the Atlantics so this is up for grabs.
11/03/19 COAST TO COAST TO COAST
99.226.134.34
Of the 11 seats in NS there are only 5 that are generally winnable for the Conservatives. West Nova is one of them but it is arguably the most vulnerable for them. Over the last 8 elections, the Conservatives have only averaged 34% here. Even though the Liberals don't have an incumbent running, they should have no problem winning West Nova when there was a 37% point spread in 2015.
08/03/19 Murphy
24.89.193.236
Still very early, but I anticipate this riding going Conservative, in main part due to the strength of their likely nominee and long-time provincial MLA, Chris d'Entremont. Several potential challengers in the Liberal nomination process, none of which have as much star power as d'Entremont. The only well-known Liberal challenger, Yarmouth mayor, Pam Mood, seems unpopular in the Yarmouth area due to cutbacks in fire dispatch service and the arts centre fiasco.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
This maybe an open seat, but generally tends to be more favourable to the Liberals than other mainland Rural Nova Scotia ridings. Stephen McNeil comes from this area and it went solidly Liberal provincially despite being a much closer race so if the Tories start getting competitive in Atlantic Canada I may change my prediction, but for now Liberal hold.



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