Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:29:38

Constituency Profile


Bélanger, Jean-Marc

Cormier, Vincent

LeBlanc, Dominic

Mercier, Nancy

Reinsborough, Laura


Dominic LeBlanc

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3995.89 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dominic LeBlanc ** 3653469.00%
Hélène Boudreau 800915.10%
Ann Bastarache 601711.40%
Kevin King 23764.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (88.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (11.26% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 R.O.
According to David Akin there was a surge in advance voting in this riding, lists it as having 5th highest advance turnout as % of eligible voters at 30 %. Locals must feel there is some reason to make sure they vote this year. Does lead me to wondering if there is something going on there to see such a spike.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Leblanc has had some health issues over the past few yrs. All the best to him in getting through those. I think he holds on here.
29/09/19 J.P. (election-atlas.ca)
The thing is, Sackville could not possibly be more unrepresentative of the rest of the riding. Anglo in a mostly franco riding, an educated white collar town in a riding full of seasonal fishery and tourism workers. Even the provincial seat went to a recount because Memramcook voted as heavily Liberal as Sackville did Green. The Greens could very well come second, but this is still LeBlanc's to lose.
25/09/19 EastCoaster
At the very least this prediction should be changed to TCTC. I was pretty shocked yesterday when driving through Sackville and other parts of the riding when the only signs I saw on people's lawns were for the Green Party. It was also surprising to see that the signs were on lawns of houses of all socio economic backgrounds and the number of them. There is also the fact that there is a large student population in this riding with Mount A University. If any other riding is going to go Green in NB other than Fredericton, this is it!
12/09/19 R.O.
Dominic Leblanc has been mp for a while and should keep this one , but interesting to see how the greens do here .
10/09/19 A.S.
He hasn't *always* been bulletproof (remember 1997?); but today's different. And I, too, would monitor the Greens for second-place potential, simply given the provincial-representation factor and how poorly the non-Libs did in 2015. A *really* distant second; but...
12/04/19 Sam
I know that even in the Anglophone part of the riding, Dominic Leblanc should win big. He is very popular in the community here and around Moncton. Although I am however not in New Brunswick this year, when I head back there Leblanc is the MP I would expect to be here next time.
05/04/19 Craig
Safest Liberal seat in New Brunswick. Dominic LeBlanc is bulletproof and even if the LPC totally collapses Kim Campbell-style, he could be one of the survivors. Even SNC-Lavalin won't take him down, although I doubt he'll get 70% of the vote this time.
Could the Greens finish 2nd though? They did win two of the provincial seats enclosed in this largely Acadian riding and they may be about to form government across the Strait in PEI. There does seem to be an environmentalist tinge here and they may take some Liberal votes. Neither the Conservatives nor the NDP will likely be a factor, since Blaine Higgs is not exactly popular here and
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Liberals survived the 1984 and 2011 disaster here so no reason Dominic LeBlanc will lose this, safest Liberal riding in New Brunswick.

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