Election Prediction Project

Fundy Royal
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-21 21:21:02

Constituency Profile


Lockhart, Alaina

Moore, Rob


Alaina Lockhart

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7230.86 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alaina Lockhart 1913640.90%
Rob Moore ** 1736137.10%
Jennifer McKenzie 820417.50%
Stephanie Coburn 18233.90%
David Raymond Amos 2960.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 60.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Fundy Royal
   (92.48% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.78% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Saint John
   (3.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   New Brunswick Southwest
   (0.39% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

10/04/19 Laurence Putnam
This riding has existed since 1917. In the 29 elections that have occurred in the past 102 years, it has voted Conservative in 27 of them and Liberal twice.
The only downer to a landslide like the Liberals had in 2015 is that seats like this will inevitably flip back to their traditional inclinations. Small matter; Trudeau will still carry most of the Atlantic seats and most of Quebec to compensate for losses in seats like this one.
Unfortunately. In my opinion.
05/04/19 Craig
It took a red tsunami to sweep Rob Moore aside as Atlantic Canada went 100% Liberal in 2015, yet he kept it close. No poll shows anywhere near a 40-point lead for Trudeau's Liberals in the region right now, which means some seats will certainly flip back. This is probably the first seat that will go back to the Conservatives in the region.
The provincial election showed what it was like with a less popular Trudeau - the PC's won these seats easily (with a fairly right wing leader) and the PANB did quite well too, while the Liberals were creamed (federal and provincial results are good indicators these days). That should easily send Rob Moore back to Parliament, likely in cabinet if the Conservatives return to power.
13/03/19 Murphy
The one riding in Atlantic Canada that should be a given for the Conservatives, barring a monumental collapse like that in 2015.
06/03/19 MF
Perhaps the most right-wing seat in Atlantic Canada, this was one of the flukes of the 2015 red wave. It should return to the Conservatives in this election.
25/02/19 Dr.Bear
I was shocked that this went Liberal in 2015. Now that the Liberals have their record against them, I don
24/02/19 Sam
This could well be the first seat to change hands of the night. When parties win stunning unexpected landslides in different regions, these tend to be the regions they underperform most in next time round. Rob Moore, a former Conservative MP is a star candidate in the Liberals' worst Atlantic riding, and so it's entirely plausible that the Conservatives win this even if the Liberals win a majority again.
21/02/19 Stevo
Another 2015 Atlantic Liberal landslide fluke that will return to Conservative normality in 2019. The CPC may be shut out of NS/PEI/NL again but they should easily reclaim their rural NB strongholds.

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