Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:31:02

Constituency Profile


Arseneault, René

Bérubé, Louis

Betteridge, Chad

Fox, Nelson


René Arseneault

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



11700.98 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

René Arseneault 2077855.70%
Rosaire L'Italien 967025.90%
Bernard Valcourt ** 615116.50%
Françoise Aubin 7071.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 12903.59%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (97.71% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (2.29% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
This seat has gone CPC in the past but in 2019 it's going to stay with the Liberals.
11/09/19 A.S.
For Valcourt to be the most soundly defeated CPC incumbent in 2015 marks quite a 180 from his being the *best-performing* PC incumbent in 1993 (and in defeat, second-best Tory in the country, behind Charest but ahead of Elsie). The riding's sometime NDP tendency which pushed Valcourt into 3rd is a peculiar one (in '15, particularly concentrated in the Saint-Quentin area which has always followed its own electoral different drummer, often offering extraordinarily high ‘spoiled’ totals); but it's safe to say that it's a bigger-picture nullity now.
17/05/19 Laurence Putnam
It was rather stunning to see how easily and by how much Bernard Valcourt was defeated in the last election. I don't know if I can instantly think of any other politician who has been prone to such highs and lows, comebacks and humiliations such as he has experienced. Anyway...I suspect you'll see Tory numbers rebound somewhat and a decline in NDP numbers, but little doubt now that this is safely Liberal at this time.
08/04/19 Sam
I agree that Madawaska-Restigouche is a safe Liberal riding. As we have seen provincially, the Northern francophone areas have become solidly Liberal. I know that Calculated Politics has this as 'safe Conservative' (it also has many other projections that most of us on this site would argue with,) but the Conservatives will struggle to overcome a deficit like there is here even in the best of years.
05/04/19 Craig
Safe Liberal. Yes, this has gone Conservative in the past, but that was with a much more Red Tory movement. Those days are gone (even in New Brunswick). The NB Liberals won the provincial seats here by very wide margins provincially in 2018 as Blaine Higgs isn't very popular among Francophone voters (and the People's Alliance is loathed here).
These days, provincial results and federal results largely match each other. The linguistic and cultural divide should help Arsenault easily win again. The Conservatives being up by 5% province-wide won't help them win here since a lot of that is probably due to running up support in the southern and central part of the province.
22/03/19 Terry K
I have quite a bit of family that live in this region and I spend a lot of time there and as of late it sees that most I speak with are sick of JT. The scandal has hurt the brand here with the franco population, particularly in Edmundson. Polling data from March 21st has the Conservatives ahead by 5%.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Considering how badly the NB PCs did here, I don't see this returning to the Tories even though I suspect they will win other ridings in New Brunswick. Possible changes on bilingualism has hurt the NB PCs which will probably have a negative spillover provincially.

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