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Madawaska-Restigouche
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:35:16
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Arseneault, René


Incumbent:

René Arseneault

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

60378
62540

29362
27037

11700.98 km²
5.2/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

René Arseneault 2077855.70%
Rosaire L'Italien 967025.90%
Bernard Valcourt ** 615116.50%
Françoise Aubin 7071.90%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1454140.48%
694919.34%
1249734.79%
6451.80%
Other 12903.59%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Madawaska-Restigouche
   (97.71% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Miramichi
   (2.29% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


17/05/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
It was rather stunning to see how easily and by how much Bernard Valcourt was defeated in the last election. I don't know if I can instantly think of any other politician who has been prone to such highs and lows, comebacks and humiliations such as he has experienced. Anyway...I suspect you'll see Tory numbers rebound somewhat and a decline in NDP numbers, but little doubt now that this is safely Liberal at this time.
08/04/19 Sam
86.188.97.204
I agree that Madawaska-Restigouche is a safe Liberal riding. As we have seen provincially, the Northern francophone areas have become solidly Liberal. I know that Calculated Politics has this as 'safe Conservative' (it also has many other projections that most of us on this site would argue with,) but the Conservatives will struggle to overcome a deficit like there is here even in the best of years.
05/04/19 Craig
130.18.104.137
Safe Liberal. Yes, this has gone Conservative in the past, but that was with a much more Red Tory movement. Those days are gone (even in New Brunswick). The NB Liberals won the provincial seats here by very wide margins provincially in 2018 as Blaine Higgs isn't very popular among Francophone voters (and the People's Alliance is loathed here).
These days, provincial results and federal results largely match each other. The linguistic and cultural divide should help Arsenault easily win again. The Conservatives being up by 5% province-wide won't help them win here since a lot of that is probably due to running up support in the southern and central part of the province.
22/03/19 Terry K
131.137.245.206
I have quite a bit of family that live in this region and I spend a lot of time there and as of late it sees that most I speak with are sick of JT. The scandal has hurt the brand here with the franco population, particularly in Edmundson. Polling data from March 21st has the Conservatives ahead by 5%.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
Considering how badly the NB PCs did here, I don't see this returning to the Tories even though I suspect they will win other ridings in New Brunswick. Possible changes on bilingualism has hurt the NB PCs which will probably have a negative spillover provincially.



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