Election Prediction Project

Miramichi-Grand Lake
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-06-15 12:12:04

Constituency Profile


Finnigan, Pat


Pat Finnigan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16867.04 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pat Finnigan 1720247.30%
Tilly O'Neill-Gordon ** 1247634.30%
Patrick Colford 558815.40%
Matthew Ian Clark 10983.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 400.12%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (82.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/06/19 Craig
Another New Brunswick riding I am ready to call. Given the rapid rise in Conservative support (and fall of Liberal support) in Atlantic Canada as polls are consistently showing a Conservative lead region-wide, the CPC should take Miramichi back.
It may not be the easiest win as the Liberals still have very strong areas (particularly near the coast) but the Greens were strong there provincially too - hint, hint? The return to prevalence for the Conservatives, the fall of Trudeau and Green vote splitting should flip this one.
05/04/19 Craig
This is NOT a safe Liberal seat. Even in 2015, Finnigan couldn't get a majority of the vote, while the 2018 provincial results were a hodgepodge. The Liberals will likely do very well along the Northumberland coast, but they might have to watch out for any Green gains. They are catching on in New Brunswick provincially and it is unclear if that will translate federally.
Inland, the Conservatives should get their support back and they don't seem to mind populism either - the PANB won Miramichi and nearly won Bay du Vin. That means that even if immigration and language policy becomes an issue, it won't hurt them nearly as bad as elsewhere. For those reasons, I'd say this is too close to call.
31/03/19 Murphy
Surprised this is already called for the Liberals. Definitely not a safe Liberal seat, especially with the current polling trends. Should these trends continue, the Conservatives will win this riding, regardless of their candidate.
03/03/19 Sam
Not a safe riding for the Liberals by any means but definitely a riding they can retain. Pat Finnigan has been a dedicated MP and led on key issues for the area, and so is in a good position. The fundamentals however mean the Conservatives can take it although the winds will have to be in their favour.

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