Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:35:24

Constituency Profile


Petitpas Taylor, Ginette


Ginette Petitpas Taylor

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



157.02 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ginette Petitpas Taylor 3005457.80%
Robert Goguen ** 1116821.50%
Luc LeBlanc 842016.20%
Luc Melanson 23994.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/05/19 Craig
Sure, the Liberal MP is low profile, but it won't make too much of a difference. It would take a perfect split for this seat to return to play and 2011 was likely a fluke. There is no evidence of any Green strength here either to potentially split the vote.
Moncton tends to generally lean Liberal, which alone should make the difference with Dieppe being overwhelmingly Liberal. The Conservatives might be able to do well in primarily Anglophone Riverview, but that won't be nearly enough to win. All that should lead to another Liberal win, despite dropping in regional and national polls.
13/03/19 Sam
The Conservatives had no real chance of winning this last time and the margin they won is still insurmountable. The scenarios which @M. Lunn described are necessary yet highly unlikely.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Tories only won this in 2011 due to strong splits so while I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories get over 30%, I still suspect this will stay Liberal. Tories need to get over 40% or have the NDP get in the 20s for Liberals to be in trouble here and neither seems likely at this point.

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