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Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:35:24
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Petitpas Taylor, Ginette


Incumbent:

Ginette Petitpas Taylor

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

92666
89484

45200
41366

157.02 km²
590.2/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ginette Petitpas Taylor 3005457.80%
Robert Goguen ** 1116821.50%
Luc LeBlanc 842016.20%
Luc Melanson 23994.60%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1632736.77%
1263828.46%
1354630.50%
18994.28%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


15/05/19 Craig
130.18.104.137
Sure, the Liberal MP is low profile, but it won't make too much of a difference. It would take a perfect split for this seat to return to play and 2011 was likely a fluke. There is no evidence of any Green strength here either to potentially split the vote.
Moncton tends to generally lean Liberal, which alone should make the difference with Dieppe being overwhelmingly Liberal. The Conservatives might be able to do well in primarily Anglophone Riverview, but that won't be nearly enough to win. All that should lead to another Liberal win, despite dropping in regional and national polls.
13/03/19 Sam
86.28.79.130
The Conservatives had no real chance of winning this last time and the margin they won is still insurmountable. The scenarios which @M. Lunn described are necessary yet highly unlikely.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
Tories only won this in 2011 due to strong splits so while I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories get over 30%, I still suspect this will stay Liberal. Tories need to get over 40% or have the NDP get in the 20s for Liberals to be in trouble here and neither seems likely at this point.



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