Election Prediction Project

New Brunswick Southwest
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:31:17

Constituency Profile


Jonah, Susan

Ludwig, Karen

Mullin, Douglas

Sarty, Meryl

Scott, Abe

Williamson, John


Karen Ludwig

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



9911.43 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karen Ludwig 1665643.90%
John Williamson ** 1462538.60%
Andrew Graham 476812.60%
Gayla MacIntosh 18774.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4541.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   New Brunswick Southwest
   (94.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

20/10/19 JSn
Repeating prediction from other seats that the Cons take either ALL THREE SW NB seats or they take NONE of them. It looks like all three at the moment, this is my final call.
Peter MacKay ironically helps the NB Cons more than the NS cons, because he is roundly hated in NS, but in NB they see him as an Atlantic Canadian who could take the leadership & resurrect the party in the region. And, MacKay's interest will suck the life out of NS Con campaigns except for that of George Canyon, for reasons stated in that riding.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
District history will win here I think. To bad as Ludwig seems to be more effective as an MP than Williamson was. Still I think Williamson wins here.
15/10/19 Sam
It's a funny one that the only projection at the moment in favour of the Liberals was made by someone named John W. Unfortunately, we're not in agreement as to this riding - this and Fundy Royal should be easy wins for the CPC now the tide is out. Locals here have told me he wasn't the strongest MP, and he was never the constituency rep Ludwig is described as being, but his party is doing well enough to lift him up here.
08/10/19 R.O.
It changes the dynamic here for the riding to have a liberal incumbent as typically it had a cpc incumbent most elections previously. Karen Ludwig perhaps presents a stronger challenge than the liberals would normally present here but I just don’t see how the riding couldn’t return to the cpc. They got over 50% of the vote here in every election between 2004-2011 and all the provincial seats within the riding went pc last election. John Williamson is also a former mp and better known than a rookie candidate.
11/09/19 A.S.
I'm willing to hedge on NBSW on similar grounds to Fundy-Royal: Saint John/Fredericton exurbia, potential PPC vote-splitting on the right, etc. Though here, the ingrained Conservative tradition might be a little less ‘irascible’, perhaps because Greg Thompson was more efficient at warding off the ReformAlliance threat, or there's more of a Fundy-coastal ‘Campobello gentility’ that's a little removed from NB-interior populism. Which might not work in favour of PPC vote splitting, but it doesn't necessarily work in favour of the Cons, either...
25/07/19 John W
I predict Karen Ludwig will definitely hold New Brunswick Southwest, in fact, likely grow her votes. She works tirelessly for the riding and has supported countless programs and initiatives that have benefited the riding. Karen is present and committed to the riding. I have heard so many people complain about how bad an MP John Williamson was...never in the riding, never mentioned the riding in Ottawa and even stripped assets away from key riding employers.
15/05/19 Craig
The 2015 results here were almost certainly a fluke. Even though the Liberals won Atlantic Canada by 40 points, they barely took New Brunswick Southwest (and the 38% the CPC got was likely their floor here). No polls show them anywhere near a 40 point lead now (the average seems to be in single digits), hence normalcy should return.
The provincial election last year should provide good clues too. The NB Liberals were decimated in the provincial seats here, while the PC's won big in all of them (with the People's Alliance finishing 2nd in many cases). That vote will likely translate in large part to the federal scene and it will be lights out. John Williamson should easily return to Parliament this fall.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
Agree with the others that the Conservatives will win this back, especially with Williamson running again too. This is safe conservative territory.
12/04/19 Sam
I should have added that while I'm not in New Brunswick for the election this year, this area around Saint John is an area I know well, and based on the current numbers, this leans Conservative and I am expecting our former MP John Williamson to return. He was not the best MP but I see no other outcome here for the moment.
31/03/19 Murphy
This riding should go Conservative based on current Atlantic Canadian polling numbers, and the fact the riding only went Liberal by 2,000 votes despite the Liberals Atlantic Canadian sweep in 2015. Former MP John Williamson is running again and should also help the Conservatives numbers.
14/03/19 Dr.Bear
I too feel that this riding was a fluke for the Liberals in 2015. A byproduct of Trudeaumania 2.0. This seat has voted reliably for the Conservatives for a very long time. The only exception to this was 1993 with the kick-the-bums-out attitude after the Mulroney years. I think this will shift back into the blue column.
13/03/19 JP (election-atlas.ca)
Not even sure this is TCTC. If Fundy-Royal goes Tory, this does too. Especially with the same CPC candidate who only lost by 5 points last time.
24/02/19 Sam
It would be wrong to say this is a definite Conservative pickup, but like its neighbours, Fundy Royal and Tobique-Mactaquac, it could well go Conservative in a Liberal Majority, and could be one of the first seats to be called as changing hands. John Williamson was not the most amazing Conservative MP, but is still a credible challenger against Karen Ludwig who is an independently minded Liberal MP; it's not clear how much that will help her. It leans Conservative at the moment.
18/02/19 Stevo
A 2015 Atlantic Liberal landslide fluke, just like 1993. Back to normal here in 2019. Easy Conservative pickup.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster