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New Brunswick Southwest
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-18 11:30:31
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Ludwig, Karen

Williamson, John


Incumbent:

Karen Ludwig

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

65287
66197

32907
27100

9911.43 km²
6.6/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karen Ludwig 1665643.90%
John Williamson ** 1462538.60%
Andrew Graham 476812.60%
Gayla MacIntosh 18774.90%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1870256.66%
769523.31%
447813.57%
16835.10%
Other 4541.38%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   New Brunswick Southwest
   (94.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Fredericton
   (5.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
184.146.168.170
Agree with the others that the Conservatives will win this back, especially with Williamson running again too. This is safe conservative territory.
12/04/19 Sam
86.188.98.74
I should have added that while I'm not in New Brunswick for the election this year, this area around Saint John is an area I know well, and based on the current numbers, this leans Conservative and I am expecting our former MP John Williamson to return. He was not the best MP but I see no other outcome here for the moment.
31/03/19 Murphy
142.68.219.74
This riding should go Conservative based on current Atlantic Canadian polling numbers, and the fact the riding only went Liberal by 2,000 votes despite the Liberals Atlantic Canadian sweep in 2015. Former MP John Williamson is running again and should also help the Conservatives numbers.
14/03/19 Dr.Bear
204.187.20.70
I too feel that this riding was a fluke for the Liberals in 2015. A byproduct of Trudeaumania 2.0. This seat has voted reliably for the Conservatives for a very long time. The only exception to this was 1993 with the kick-the-bums-out attitude after the Mulroney years. I think this will shift back into the blue column.
13/03/19 JP (election-atlas.ca)
47.55.86.212
Not even sure this is TCTC. If Fundy-Royal goes Tory, this does too. Especially with the same CPC candidate who only lost by 5 points last time.
24/02/19 Sam
86.161.144.122
It would be wrong to say this is a definite Conservative pickup, but like its neighbours, Fundy Royal and Tobique-Mactaquac, it could well go Conservative in a Liberal Majority, and could be one of the first seats to be called as changing hands. John Williamson was not the most amazing Conservative MP, but is still a credible challenger against Karen Ludwig who is an independently minded Liberal MP; it's not clear how much that will help her. It leans Conservative at the moment.
18/02/19 Stevo
165.225.76.96
A 2015 Atlantic Liberal landslide fluke, just like 1993. Back to normal here in 2019. Easy Conservative pickup.



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