Election Prediction Project

New Brunswick Southwest
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-04-26 20:46:32

Constituency Profile


Ludwig, Karen

Williamson, John


Karen Ludwig

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



9911.43 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karen Ludwig 1665643.90%
John Williamson ** 1462538.60%
Andrew Graham 476812.60%
Gayla MacIntosh 18774.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4541.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   New Brunswick Southwest
   (94.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/05/19 Craig
The 2015 results here were almost certainly a fluke. Even though the Liberals won Atlantic Canada by 40 points, they barely took New Brunswick Southwest (and the 38% the CPC got was likely their floor here). No polls show them anywhere near a 40 point lead now (the average seems to be in single digits), hence normalcy should return.
The provincial election last year should provide good clues too. The NB Liberals were decimated in the provincial seats here, while the PC's won big in all of them (with the People's Alliance finishing 2nd in many cases). That vote will likely translate in large part to the federal scene and it will be lights out. John Williamson should easily return to Parliament this fall.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
Agree with the others that the Conservatives will win this back, especially with Williamson running again too. This is safe conservative territory.
12/04/19 Sam
I should have added that while I'm not in New Brunswick for the election this year, this area around Saint John is an area I know well, and based on the current numbers, this leans Conservative and I am expecting our former MP John Williamson to return. He was not the best MP but I see no other outcome here for the moment.
31/03/19 Murphy
This riding should go Conservative based on current Atlantic Canadian polling numbers, and the fact the riding only went Liberal by 2,000 votes despite the Liberals Atlantic Canadian sweep in 2015. Former MP John Williamson is running again and should also help the Conservatives numbers.
14/03/19 Dr.Bear
I too feel that this riding was a fluke for the Liberals in 2015. A byproduct of Trudeaumania 2.0. This seat has voted reliably for the Conservatives for a very long time. The only exception to this was 1993 with the kick-the-bums-out attitude after the Mulroney years. I think this will shift back into the blue column.
13/03/19 JP (election-atlas.ca)
Not even sure this is TCTC. If Fundy-Royal goes Tory, this does too. Especially with the same CPC candidate who only lost by 5 points last time.
24/02/19 Sam
It would be wrong to say this is a definite Conservative pickup, but like its neighbours, Fundy Royal and Tobique-Mactaquac, it could well go Conservative in a Liberal Majority, and could be one of the first seats to be called as changing hands. John Williamson was not the most amazing Conservative MP, but is still a credible challenger against Karen Ludwig who is an independently minded Liberal MP; it's not clear how much that will help her. It leans Conservative at the moment.
18/02/19 Stevo
A 2015 Atlantic Liberal landslide fluke, just like 1993. Back to normal here in 2019. Easy Conservative pickup.

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