Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Rodney Weston **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(99.86% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(0.14% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|Going to be a close riding on Monday. I think that both of the main parties will be watching this 1. The seat actually was 1 of 2 to elect a PC in 1993 but that was because of candidate Elsie Wayne. While the CPC candidate is a former MLA and 2-term MP I think the Liberal incumbent's maverick attributes will get him a close win here.
|This riding has typically swung between the liberals and conservatives for some time. So it would seem to be a race between liberal incumbent Wayne Long and Rodney Weston a former cpc mp who won the riding in 2008 and 2011 elections. Its harder to predict how the smaller parties do here , greens will likely do better than past results and peoples party have never run a candidate before.
|Another candidacy wholly rooted in Harper era Tar Sands promises. The project is dead but Higgs, Scheer, Bragdon, Williamson & Moore just lie it back into existence.
SW NB either falls for this or it doesn't. A renewed war with natives will change the politics of this region the way it did in Kent County. The status quo preserving vote here is Liberal, a Green vs Con proxy war fought by Irving vs natives, is a recipe for radical change in NB.
I predict all three Cons win or all three lose
|This riding is starting to get interesting. With long time fairly popular Liberal Stewart Jamison entering the race as an independent candidate, I think this will eat away at some of incumbent Wayne Longs margin. Not enough however to lose the riding. The conservatives are running a very weak candidate that has a backbencher yes man record from the Harper years. The PPC are running a candidate when he ran provincially, wasnt on the ballot for not filling out proper paperwork.
|Collapse of NB NDP only helps Wayne Long, though more votes will shift Green than Liberal due to pro-pipeline Long.
The Elsie Wayne days are long gone, hate cultists screeching abuse at gays aren't coming back. The pipeline backers are an equally doomed crowd, but Long opportunistically panders to them. In a low literacy riding, that's what works, sadly.
|While there is a better-than-average natural Tory blue inclination here, always remember that Elsie Wayne in 1993 was an exceptional case--demonstrated by how the seat flipped Liberal upon Elsie's retirement. And while we're looking at yet another NB rematch, remember that when it comes to the Liberals in 2019, urbanity is their friend; and this is pretty well an urban seat, which is why the only PC hold in NB in '93 isn't in the top CPC 3 in '19. And, I suppose, Saint John has a way with mavericks named Wayne, whether as given name or surname...
|Naturally, the Saint John area tends to lean conservative, except in the core of the city. That said, the best polls are in surrounding ridings, while Wayne Long has definitely made himself known and he has gone against the party in the SNC-Lavalin scandal (plus he iss pro-pipeline). That should help insulate himself somewhat. As long as he is the Liberal candidate, he should be fine.
I'd add one potential wild card. What happens if he leaves the caucus and sits as an independent? If the scandal continues, I would consider that a reasonable possible. He might be able to take some Conservative votes with him and win as an independent, but are there enough natural Liberal votes to potentially create a vote split?
|Saint John is a riding with a long history of voting for a person over party (ie Elsie Wayne). Wayne has a long entrenched history in the community and has a track record of choosing Saint John-Rothesay over party when it is the right thing to do. Saint John-Rothesay is very unlikely to change regardless of what happens nationally.
|I somehow agree with the two previous posters despite them having wildly different projections. Wayne Long got a good victory last time and has been independently minded, that will sonner help him than hinder him. But New Brunswick is a province that should see some PC gains, these Liberal waves haven't held up before, and if the election were to be held now, I suspect this would be one of them. Things can change, but a PC gain should still be very possible in October.
|Currently calling this for the Conservatives. The Liberal vote in Atlantic Canada seems to be collapsing, and even a small blip on the radar hurts the Liberals in New Brunswick.
|This riding, one of two that stayed Conservative in the 1993 deluge should return to the fold whether or not the candidate is a Conservative, or whether Liberal incumbent Wayne Long crosses the floor as some rumours have it.
|Wayne Long has established himself as a maverick MP. His profile has increased with the SNC-Lavalin scandal as he remains one of the few Liberal MPs to join the Opposition in calling for an investigation into the matter. He has also been a firm proponent of Energy East, the pipeline killed by the Liberal government. Should be enough to keep him safe from Conservative attacks that he isn't adequately fighting for his region's interests. I think he wins reelection in a close race.