Election Prediction Project

Saint John-Rothesay
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-27 21:34:09

Constituency Profile


Long, Wayne


Wayne Long

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



391.02 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Wayne Long 2063448.80%
Rodney Weston ** 1291530.50%
AJ Griffin 741117.50%
Sharon Murphy 13213.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2880.80%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Saint John
   (99.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fundy Royal
   (0.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

05/04/19 Craig
Naturally, the Saint John area tends to lean conservative, except in the core of the city. That said, the best polls are in surrounding ridings, while Wayne Long has definitely made himself known and he has gone against the party in the SNC-Lavalin scandal (plus he iss pro-pipeline). That should help insulate himself somewhat. As long as he is the Liberal candidate, he should be fine.
I'd add one potential wild card. What happens if he leaves the caucus and sits as an independent? If the scandal continues, I would consider that a reasonable possible. He might be able to take some Conservative votes with him and win as an independent, but are there enough natural Liberal votes to potentially create a vote split?
03/04/19 Charles Frees-Melvin
Saint John is a riding with a long history of voting for a person over party (ie Elsie Wayne). Wayne has a long entrenched history in the community and has a track record of choosing Saint John-Rothesay over party when it is the right thing to do. Saint John-Rothesay is very unlikely to change regardless of what happens nationally.
31/03/19 Sam
I somehow agree with the two previous posters despite them having wildly different projections. Wayne Long got a good victory last time and has been independently minded, that will sonner help him than hinder him. But New Brunswick is a province that should see some PC gains, these Liberal waves haven't held up before, and if the election were to be held now, I suspect this would be one of them. Things can change, but a PC gain should still be very possible in October.
31/03/19 Murphy
Currently calling this for the Conservatives. The Liberal vote in Atlantic Canada seems to be collapsing, and even a small blip on the radar hurts the Liberals in New Brunswick.
05/03/19 Neal
This riding, one of two that stayed Conservative in the 1993 deluge should return to the fold whether or not the candidate is a Conservative, or whether Liberal incumbent Wayne Long crosses the floor as some rumours have it.
26/02/19 Stevo
Wayne Long has established himself as a maverick MP. His profile has increased with the SNC-Lavalin scandal as he remains one of the few Liberal MPs to join the Opposition in calling for an investigation into the matter. He has also been a firm proponent of Energy East, the pipeline killed by the Liberal government. Should be enough to keep him safe from Conservative attacks that he isn't adequately fighting for his region's interests. I think he wins reelection in a close race.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster