Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-03-02 20:26:58

Constituency Profile


Bragdon, Richard


TJ Harvey

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



14568.89 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

TJ Harvey 1790946.60%
Richard Bragdon 1422537.00%
Robert Kitchen 433411.30%
Terry Wishart 19595.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 70.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (96.1% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

13/03/19 JP (election-atlas.ca)
The CPC candidate is a social conservative type, that may be enough to stop bleeding to the PPC. But it may also turn off other potential voters, especially since there are now more Fredericton suburbs in the riding than there were ~10 years ago.
The presence of Grand Falls in the riding means there's a higher Liberal floor than NBSW or Fundy-Royal, but it's still at least the 3rd most likely seat in NB to turn blue.
12/03/19 MF
One of the three most small-'c' conservative ridings in Atlantic Canada, so most likely a Conservative pickup.
10/03/19 Stevo
This was the Canadian Alliance's best Atlantic riding in 2000 (which caused it to go Liberal due to the vote split with the PCs). Weirdly, it then went Liberal in 2004 post-reunification of conservatives, so it's more unpredictable than the other rural NB seats. Unlikely the Liberals can hang on here given Junior's troubles but still TCTC for now.
06/03/19 Kyle H
This is an interesting riding. On paper, with no incumbent and a weak margin to begin with, it should go to the Conservatives... but I could see this being one of the few ridings where a solid PPC candidate makes a difference. The Francophone parts will probably stay Liberal while the areas that went for the People's Alliance provincially could take a look at Bernier's outfit with less skeptical eyes. If the PPC gets above 5% here and the race is close, it could very well stay Liberal.
05/03/19 Neal
This riding is a natural for the Conservatives and should easily return to the fold, and if it doesn't it will probably be a long election night for Team Blue, and a long 4 years ahead.
01/03/19 Sam
Another opportunity for the Conservatives in New Brunswick, this is an open seat that is one of the most marginal in New Brunswick. Although the Liberals have won it before that was due to a split in the right-wing vote, and this is reinforced by the relatively high Conservative vote share for a riding in the Maritimes. It would take a bigger swing than many other ridings but it's hard to see the Conservatives not making an effort here.

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