Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:44:50

Constituency Profile


Bergeron, Isabelle

Bérubé, Sylvie

Cabana-Whiteley, Kiara

Ferron, Martin

Lanouette, Guillaume

Rouleau, Jacline

Simon, Daniel


Romeo Saganash

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



771483.97 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Romeo Saganash ** 1277837.00%
Pierre Dufour 1109432.10%
Luc Ferland 639818.50%
Steven Hébert 32119.30%
Patrick Benoît 7792.30%
Mario Gagnon 2580.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.05% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 NJam101
I think that this riding will go Bloc but it won't be with more than 40% of the total votes. The interesting part will be to see how much support the NDP and Liberal candidates get as Romeo Saganash is not running. The Indigenous populations (Cree, Inuit, etc) make up a significant portion of the riding's population. The only city in it is Val-d'Or. As A.S. mentioned, resource-based communities such as Val-d'Or, Malartic and Chibougamau voted NDP in the last two election but will be voting Bloc this time and have enough population to determine the winner. The Liberals and NDP have an advantage in that the growing population here is mainly in the Indigenous communities so it could make it close if there isn't too much split between the NDP and Liberal candidates.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Following the resignation of NDP MP Romeo Saganash I think this seat will go to the BQ on Monday.
27/09/19 R.O.
At this point it seems pretty obvious the ndp won’t hold onto either of the Abitibi ridings but the question is where are they headed ? in theory the liberals , Bloc Quebecois and conservatives could have a chance here. based on past results , all 3 of those parties have had strong runs here in recent elections. But too early to make a solid prediction.
01/09/19 A.S.
I know the reserves are likelier to slide Liberal in a post-Saganash environment; but, how certain is it that the riding at large will go Liberal? After all, the resource-town Bloc base is pretty rigorous in places like Chibougamau--provincially, the PQ even finished ahead of the incumbent Liberals in the far-north Ungava riding, only to have CAQ win with a mere 26.5%! Or if the Libs succeed, it'll be less due to the far north than to Val D'Or urbanity--and for all one knows, the reserves might see fit to still stick in large numbers to the NPD (who are once again offering a candidate of FN background)
26/07/19 Laurence Putnam
While the collapse in NPD vote will provide a boost to BQ fortunes, I think the remoteness of this riding will make it much more similar in tone to Labrador or one of the territorial ridings, heavily reliant on the federal Government. There are a lot of soft nationalist votes here but with sovereignty issues on the back burner and current provincial polling trends, the Liberals should snatch this one away from team orange with ease.
01/03/19 Sam
This is very likely to go Liberal, the NDP have no incumbent ensuring their already likely decline in Quebec, so even if the Liberal vote share does not increase significantly they could win it. The Bloc and Conservatives are too far behind and are unlikely to put it on their target list.

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