Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:33:04

Constituency Profile


Bégin, Aline

Girard, Jacques

Guimond, Alain

Lemire, Sébastien

Provencher, Mario

Thibault, Claude


Christine Moore

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



33444.46 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Christine Moore ** 2063641.50%
Claude Thibault 1473329.60%
Yvon Moreau 965119.40%
Benoit Fortin 34256.90%
Aline Bégin 8591.70%
Pascal Le Fou Gélinas 4250.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 NJam101
This electoral district is next door to mine and I visit the region a lot. It will definitely be going BQ this time. The NDP MP Christine Moore isn't running again. Much of the NDP vote in 2011 and 2015 was former Bloc voters. This time the Bloc is more attractive as an option and the leader (Blanchet) has visited a number of times. The BQ candidate Sébastien Lemire here is well liked and is kind of a ‘cool’ guy from what friends there tell me. The Liberal candidate is the owner of a successful restaurant in Rouyn-Noranda who will likely come in second. She would have had a good chance until the Bloc support rose. The interesting thing will be to see how this riding goes in the next election. Assuming it's a minority government, Lemire may not be MP for very long if the BQ's fortunes worsen. This region has had short-lived PQ MNAs in minority governments. But Lemire could be MP for awhile if the BQ can maintain its current level of support.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
An open seat that the NDP won during Orange Crush. That has waned off a lot. I think in this riding in 2019 the BQ win back this riding.
16/10/19 R.O.
Updating my prediction , I think this riding will return to the bloc . it had been a bloc Quebecois riding in the past and one they did well in. I don’t see any of the federalist parties being able to make a strong enough push here to offset the recent gains by the bloc. And the fact it has no incumbent makes it even more likely to flip.
11/10/19 Eddie E.
l have to think that both Abitibi ridings are now leaning Bloc. Les Quebecois are famous for political tsunamis, and l'm getting a bad feeling that the small Bloc tide we are seeing is about to morph into a BQ wave in francophone Quebec. English Canada (and Montreal) might have nobody appealing to vote for in this election about nothing, but in Quebec there actually is another option. Blanchet acquitted himself well in the debates, is the only leader unequivocally on the right side of the popular Bill 21 in Quebec, and given the unappealing options, what seemed like a party dead and buried might just pick up more seats in Quebec than any other party. lt no longer seems too much of a reach to project the BQ getting around 30 seats or so and becoming the 3rd largest party in Parliament.
27/09/19 R.O.
At this point it seems pretty obvious the ndp won’t hold onto either of the Abitibi ridings but the question is where are they headed ? in theory the liberals and Bloc Quebecois could have a chance here but less of a target for the conservatives based on past results. Mostly the riding was Bloc Quebecois territory before Christine Moore won in 2011, only liberal win was a by election in early 2003 a year or so before the sponsorship scandal brought down liberal fortunes in Quebec.
01/09/19 A.S.
Actually, sexual misconduct allegations aside, Moore *was* a positive asset within the NPD caucus--why else would she have been reelected so solidly in 2015?--and presumably some of that vestigfially rubbed off on the provincial QS pickup. (As with Romeo Saganash, a certain geographic-regional synergy with Charlie Angus also helped.) But it probably wouldn't have been enough to save her hide this time--right now, the question as in so much of QC's periphery is: how much of that Dipper vote is going to default Liberal, and how much Bloc. (Or, for spoiler purposes, CPC. Or even staying put.)
20/06/19 Marco Ricci
Claude Thibault is actually a woman, not a man (Claude can be a woman or man's name in French). She ran here last time in 2015 and according to the information I can find she is expected to be nominated later this month.
08/06/19 Sam
And to add to that, Moore isn't running for re-election given her problems. She wasn't a great asset anyway. Still think the Liberals would take this, one of a few gains for them. I've yet to see if Claude Thibault is a good candidate, but if he plays it safe, it's his.
07/06/19 Marco Ricci
NDP MP Christine Moore announced today that she will not run again:
03/03/19 Sam
This is not a heavily Liberal riding by any means but they are in a great position to gain the seat. Christine Moore, the NDP incumbent is already in a bad position having been the subject of lots of bad press; when this is combined with the bad fortunes of the NDP in Quebec she is likely to shed many votes. The one small glimmer of hope is that the voters who elected the QS candidate in the Rouyn-Noranda riding turn out for the NDP, but many will turn out for the Bloc making an NDP victory very unlikely.

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