Election Prediction Project

Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:45:10

Constituency Profile


Boucher Smoley, Charlotte

Destroismaisons, Yves

Edwards, Sherwin

Lauzon, Stéphane

Louis-Seize, Marie

Valiquette, Marjorie


Stéphane Lauzon

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4958.84 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Stéphane Lauzon 2209343.30%
Chantal Crête 1265024.80%
Jonathan Beauchamp 952518.70%
Maxime Hupé-Labelle 568011.10%
Audrey Lamarche 11182.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2850.65%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (67.88% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (32.12% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
The rise of the BQ could play a factor here in this formerly BQ area but I think the Liberals will perform well enough here on Monday to hold on here.
03/09/19 A.S.
Actually, by rest-of-Quebec standards this *was* one of the better Liberal results in 2015--and maybe a bit surprisingly so, as it had been Mulroney-into-Bloc-into-Jack autopilot for years. In a way, Justinmania opened up a long-suppressed Ottawa Valley Liberal latency that was always there--including, among other things, the onetime provincial stronghold of Claude Ryan--though the real secret ingredient was the swapping of Bloc-friendly Mirabel for Lib-friendly Buckingham-Masson-Angers, thus shifting the riding away from the Greater Montreal "Bloc belt" and into the ancestrally Liberal Outaouais. Which was something that few could have paid heed to until the Mulcair bubble popped, given how far the Quebec Liberal star had fallen since the days of PET--but now the seat's projecting something more on the exceptional level of a Brome-Missisquoi; which means that it'll likely stay in the fold even if the Liberals are mostly decimated in the ROQ.
01/03/19 Sam
This is another riding where the Liberals have only a minute risk of losing even though it is not one of their better ridings by 2015 results. Stephane Lauzon has no real detractors, and the NDP, Bloc and Conservatives are all too far behind to make this a contest.

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