Election Prediction Project

Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:33:13

Constituency Profile


Barnabé, Éric

Castonguay, Mathieu

Côté, Rémi-Jocelyn

Massé, Rémi

Michaud, Kristina

Morrison, James

Tremblay, Natasha


Rémi Massé

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



14461.67 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rémi Massé 1437839.50%
Kédina Fleury-Samson 764121.00%
Joël Charest 734020.20%
Jean-François Fortin ** 422911.60%
André Savoie 22286.10%
Sherri Springle 3651.00%
Éric Normand 1750.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
   (79.55% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (20.45% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Looking at riding and area history this is a Bloc history. Looking at the last election their former MP was running for another party. His totals plus the BQ total in 2015 would have meant a BQ win in 2015, in 2019 none of that exists and you get a BQ win.
12/10/19 Physastr Master
This seems like a pretty obvious Bloc call given the current bloc surge. Similarly, Gaspesie-Les Iles-de-la-Madeleine should definitely be TCTC at this point
09/10/19 J.F. Breton
Je mise pour un gain du Bloc dans cette circonscription de l'Est du Québec. 1) La remontée dans les sondages du Bloc qui se poursuit chez les francophones au Québec, plaçant même le parti au 1er rang. 2) La bonne performance de son chef lors des débats. 3) La présence au provincial de députés du Parti Québécois, dont son chef intérimaire, Pascal Bérubé. 4) Le tout confirmé par les récentes projections de http://canada.qc125.com et de https://www.tooclosetocall.ca.
02/10/19 R.O.
With polls showing the Bloc Quebecois doing better this year and this riding being one of there historical bloc seats. It also stayed PQ provincially by a huge margin and one of there safer seats provincially. With no former bloc mp running for a fringe party to split the vote and a weaker ndp. It might be the kind of riding that returns to the bloc this year.
07/09/19 A.S.
The disconnect btw/ nearly-40% federal Liberal incumbency and not just Fortin's anomalous Bloc victory in '11 (though *that* heavily hinged upon a strong Lib candidate splitting the vote), but the fact that it's all provincially PQ and the bulk of it won last time by Pascal Bérubé with nearly *70%* of the vote, is enough to give one pause. Which is why I'd rather hold off from anything definite at this time.
03/03/19 Sam
The Liberals came up the middle here last time and could win in the same way, with split opposition from the Bloc and NDP. The Bloc will probably take the votes won by Jean-Francois Fortin last time, but it would require all of them and half the NDP vote to oust the Liberals, which is unlikely to happen, even in the most PQ riding at the Quebec election in 2018. The Liberals have fortunate circumstances, which make them the unambiguous favourites here, but things could change.

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