Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Maxime Bernier **
|Céline Brown MacDonald
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(100% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
||Right Honourable Adult|
|There are many of us who like ideas like liberating the milk market which would give Max Bernier a market for his party but, as Legolas points out, the PPC has failed to take off and is getting overshadowed by the LavScam news. Without a critical issue to galvanize dissatisfied Tories and with even small-c conservatives ready to take a chance on Andrew Scheer just to defeat Justin Trudeau, I doubt Max will be able to hold onto his riding and will likely have to spend most of the campaign circling the eastern townships as a defensive strategy.|
|Bernier's party has really failed to take off and I can't see him staving off the CPC. In December 2017 I would have probably called it for Bernier or at least TCTC, but with the CPC polling in the mid-20s in Quebec, the large number of dairy farms and farmers in the riding who are not happy with Bernier's supply management positions, and Richard Lehoux running for the CPC it is hard to see Bernier winning. While some argue it is a 'Bernier' seat, it's also a conservative seat, with the CAQ having their best results in the two Beauce seats and the nearby ridings going 50%+ to the CPC in 2015 as well. I think Bernier will finish second, but the CPC will still win comfortably.|
|With the PPC continuing to grow gradually in the polls, it looks more likely that Maxime Bernier will hold onto his seat. Let's not forget the family history he has in the riding; he's also the only candidate/party that has come out in favour of lowering national immigration numbers - I believe this campaign issue has been overlooked by the Liberals/Cons (and I predict Scheer will eventually have to come out with a position on it in order to stop PPC from stealing Conservative votes.)|
In any event, Bernier hold here.
|Kyle H's analysis was spot on. Sure, Bernier is a good name to have in this riding, but when people elected him all those times, he did not have the exposure he has now, which hasn't helped him. His policies are not popular here, and his image has been changed. Beauce is not going to be the best Conservative riding, Steven Blaney will do better than Richard Lehoux, that is likely, but Lehoux can challenge here and I suspect it will go Conservative, but I will wait before firming that.|
|Anyone who calls this a 'Bernier riding not a Conservative riding' are reading way too much into Gilles Bernier's win in 1993, and not enough into the fact that it voted consistently against the BQ.|
Beauce federally and provincially has always been anti-separatist and conservative, and if not explicitly federalist then at least regionalist and more than happy to entertain federal and provincial subsidies for its communities. The CPC are good fits here, reflected in the fact that between 2004 and 2006, while Bernier uplifted the CPC vote in Beauce 50pts, nearby we had 38pts for Christian Paradis in Megantic-L'Erable; 30pts by Jacques Gourde in Lotbiniere; and +20 everywhere everywhere else.
Basically, yes Bernier has a favourite-son thing going for him, but this is a naturally Conservativ-leaning riding, and the CPC as a party itself is on the rise in the province and region. There's nothing that says Bernier has his riding on a lock, zip to zero. Competitive, yes, no doubt, but the CPC has a very good chance to hold this and quite easily too.
|Remember that CPC members in Beauce voted for Scheer, not Bernier in the CPC leadership. Lehoux (Tory challenger) is a dairy farmer himself who was the mayor of Saint-Elzear. Beauce voters will want to be part of a potential CPC government, rather than keeping Bernier around so the rest of the house can laugh at him.|
|I believe this riding will stay in the Conservative fold... UNLESS... it appears that the Conservatives are headed to defeat, in which case they may decide to keep Mad Max around. |
That being said, I do not see the 'Peoples Party' making much of a dent in this election. Their strength, such as it is, comes from three groups. 1) Disgruntled conservatives who don't think Scheer has what it takes to defeat |Trudeau.
2) Libertarians 3) the 'Make Canada White again' crowd.
As it becomes more clear that Scheer can and will likely win, the first group will quietly return to the fold, leaving just the other two groups, neither of which have any serious strength.
The 'peoples Party' reminds me a bit of Mel Hurtig's 1993 National Party gambit where he tried to capitalize on dissatisfaction with Chretien's leadership of the Liberals (Yesterday's Man) , and progressives dspondent over the implosion of the NDP. At the end of the day, though they ran pretty close to a full slate they averaged between 200 and 800 votes per riding, and amounted to little more than a hill of beans, and a question in Trivial pursuit.
This is the fate that I believe awaits mad Max and his crew.
Don't forget, Bernier's Supply Mamangement policies are VERY unpopular in this riding of Dairy farmers. He lost to Scheer here in the leadership race.
Some talk about his winning based on 'favourite Son' status, Richard Leheux is also a Well known local force in the riding.
So my call: a Tory win Nationally means LeHeux wins, a Liberal re-election means Mad Max becomes the sole Peoples party MP.
|Beauce is a Bernier riding, not a Tory riding. Just as his father won re-election in 1993 as an independent, I don't believe Max needs the CPC brand to get re-elected, I believe Max will win this with 40-45% or so of the vote. Scheer isn't resonating in this province, the love affair with the NDP is over, so it's basically a Bernier-Liberal race. Favourite son Mad Max will prevail and most likely go on to play the same sort of role Real Caouette once did, as a sort of rural-Quebec flavoured Tory alternative.|
|I wouldn't be so quick to call this. Maxime Bernier has some popularity here and this area is somewhat more libertarian than most parts of Quebec. Still has stance on supply management is likely offside with most residents as this riding has one of if not the largest number of dairy farmers in the country. Lets remember on the final ballot in the CPC leadership race, Scheer not Bernier won this. I also see a slight possibility of the Liberals coming up the middle if you get perfect splits on the right which wouldn't happen otherwise.|
|If PPC keeps their growth in the polls, Bernier could hold this riding.|
|While I think that the end of supply management would hurt Quebec farmers, Max is still a favourite son. PPC will eat into CPC support in Quebec, but I think Max prevails in his home riding.|