Election Prediction Project

Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:16:44

Constituency Profile


Blaney, Steven

Bouchard-Théberge, Sébastien

Chamroeun, Khuon

Gilbert, Yves

Harvey, Laurence

Johnston, Marc

Voyer, André


Steven Blaney

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3202.78 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Steven Blaney ** 3187250.90%
Jacques Turgeon 1296120.70%
Jean-Luc Daigle 851613.60%
Antoine Dubé 721711.50%
André Bélisle 20323.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Bloc will put up a fight here but I think Blaney's going to hold onto this seat for the CPC.
16/10/19 R.O.
Steven Blaney has been an mp since 2006 and held numerous positions in Ottawa. The bloc are likely to improve in many of these ridings but this one should stay cpc.
15/10/19 Mark
Very safe Conservative seat here. Well liked candidate is comfortably winning the polls and sign war. Barring a huge disaster the Tories should take this Quebec seat on the 21st.
07/09/19 A.S.
Any Quebec Conservative who got a majority in 2015 and is still in the fold is all but guaranteed reelection. Even if they did markedly worse than Mad Max in the leadership race.
25/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Agree with Sam -- Blaney might not have the same profile as Bernier, but as another former cabinet minister and former leadership contender, Blaney's profile is high enough that he has become almost unbeatable here.
06/04/19 Legolas
As with the other suburban Quebec City seats, the Conservatives won them by decent margins in 2015 and there is no way they are losing them while polling even better for this election.
03/03/19 Sam
Now that Maxime Bernier has left, this will probably be the best riding for the Conservatives in Quebec. Andrew Scheer showed his appeal here during the leadership election, but regardless, a win for any other party was never a real possibility.
25/02/19 J.F. Breton
Easy gain for PCC in Chaudière-Appalaches. Steven Blaney does’nt risk anything. Animosity with Maxime Bernier (Beauce, the riding next to Bellechasse-Les Etchemins) is another factor to consider.

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