Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:40:36

Constituency Profile


Bernard, Chloé

Blanchet, Yves-François

Blondin, Michel

Carrier, Pierre

Dubé, Matthew

Hamel, Marie-Chantal

Laprise, Véronique


Matthew Dubé

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



378.26 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Matthew Dubé ** 2064131.10%
Karine Desjardins 1949429.30%
Yves Lessard 1838727.70%
Claude Chalhoub 61739.30%
Fodé Kerfalla Yansané 14982.30%
Michael Maher 2450.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 673411.47%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
The BQ surge has been due in part to Blanchet's performance in the debate. This is his seat. He'll win this seat for the Bloc.
07/10/19 Physastr Master
Blanchet has so far earned this seat with his strong debate performance, and even if the NDP surged back to 2015 levels it would probably be an exercise in futility holding this. That said, that pretty dramatic NDP jump since the last poll might indicate some surprises elsewhere.
03/10/19 Riverdale Resident
Beloeil-Chambly Federal Polling:
BQ: 39% (+13)
LPC 25% (-10)
NDP: 18% (+10)
CPC: 9% (-6)
GPC: 6% (-3)
PPC: 2% (+2)
Mainstreet Research / September 29, 2019 / n=609 / IVR
(% chg w Sept 3)
03/10/19 Johnny 5
New Mainstreet poll now shows the bloc leader well ahead of the Liberal in this riding https://www.lavoixdelest.ca/actualites/sondage-mainstreet-avance-confortable-du-chef-bloquiste-dansbeloeil-chambly-32ac09ce06937a1b6ff9c4609567731e
Bloc win now
03/10/19 J.F. Breton
New Mainstreet Poll. Blanchet is now in very good position. With his good performance in the debate, a win here.
- Bloc (39%)
- Liberals (25%)
- NDP (18%)
- Conservatives (9%)
- Greens (6%)
- PPC (2%)
13/09/19 RG
I'm a Torontonian married to a Quebecer ... My in-laws and Quebec cousins live in this riding .... Typical middle class families. Liberals and soft-nationalists politically. At their recent annual corn-roast BBQ for about 80 family members and neighbours, there was a lively political discussion .. younger people were debating between NDP/Green, older people were debating Liberal/BQ with a lack of enthusiasm for Liberals (though my father in law is an old Mulroney Tory, like me), and middle aged folks were all over the place. On balance, I'd give this to the BQ, if it's a soft nationalist approach. They all love the CAQ and Bill 21, however, including the few visible minorities who've married into the family ... and while there were definitely anti-muslim views expressed, the basic anti-Catholic foundation of the Quiet Revolution was in full force. Being the only anglophone, my libertarian views on that debate was a decided minority of one!
11/09/19 Laurence Putnam
While it looks like the Bloc ‘resurgence’ has a fairly low ceiling around the 20% mark in the province, I do believe that the voters of Beloeil-Chambly will gift the BQ leader his seat.
11/09/19 Marco Ricci
This riding should be changed back to Too Close To Call. It's actually leaning Liberal in the Mainstreet riding poll today:
Liberal: 35%
BQ: 26%
Conservative: 15%
Green: 9%
NDP: 8%
11/09/19 J.F. Breton
It will not be easy for Yves-François Blanchet (Bloc). Mainstreet Poll:
- Liberals (35%)
- Bloc (26%)
- Conservatives (15%)
- Greens (9%)
- NDP (8%)
- PPC (5%)
Source: https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/sondage-mainstreet-pari-risque-pour-blanchet-dans-beloeil-chambly-videos-e3590acd0f9d870eaeaa034a810c5e35
08/09/19 Daniel Beaudin
Do the maths: Based on the 2015 results, NDP + Bloc = 36K votes, Liberals got 18K votes. Jagmeet Singh is a write off here and almost every where in Quebec. Blanchet is doing a good job so far in maintaining the existing assets for the BQ and I don't see the NDP vote (mostly pre-Layton BQ vote) shifting to the liberals. Looking real good for the Bloc
01/09/19 A.S.
Dubé's one of those ‘statistical fluke’ Orange Crush caucus survivors--excluding the advance and special polls, he would have lost to the Libs in '15 with less than 650 votes separating the top three parties. And now he's up against the Bloc leader--though token forewarning of how former Bloc MP Yves Lessard still couldn't get beyond 3rd place in in his '15 comeback attempt. That is, unless the Bloc *really* becomes a critical bloc, fluke defeats of tried figures, yes even leadership figures, aren't necessarily out of the question--it all depends on how far and how powerfully the Greater Montreal Liberal magnetism exerts its draw. Though it certainly helps Blanchet that he chose an NPD-incumbent seat instead, i.e. from the looks of things, much, much more of an easy pushover than if it were Lib-incumbent...
24/08/20 Tyler S.
This was historically a Bloc seat, with Blanchet as leader, even a decent overall performance will give him this seat, I'd hypothesize.
28/05/19 Daniel Beaudin
Yves-François Blanchet will take this riding. Bloc was 3.4% behind NDP runner in the last one. The fact that Blanchet is the new boss will compensate for the gap, if there is one, and give a seat to the Bloc
19/05/19 Sam
I don't know how well the Bloc's strong uptick can hold - but I do now think with Blanchet running in a relatively pro-CAQ/PQ area (there should be a lot of crossover vote), this is probably in their column. Yves Lessard nearly won it back last time despite being trounced, so with the extra profile of Blanchet, that could seal it this time, but he has other factors his way. Dube has a lot going for him, and he's a good MP, but suddenly the NDP aren't palatable here - personal vote is good until your party becomes unpopular enough that you get many voters who will say 'I like Matthew Dube, but I simply can't vote for his party.' It seems as if that will be a story that plays out across the province, and here the Bloc should stand to gain it - it's probably the most likely gain for them.
15/04/19 Mizisuga
Well, my prediction for what seat Blanchet would run in was the neighboring riding, but he has very good chances here. Being the BQ leader he has better chances than other Bloc candidates. Looks to be one of several Bloc pickups in October, and the safest one at that.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
Dube's done a great job on the hill but the NDP is toast in Quebec outside Montreal. With Blanchet running here I would make him the favourite.
03/04/19 J.F. Breton
Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-François Blanchet is looking to be candidate in this riding for the next federal election, confirmed Radio-Canada. If it's true, it will be a very interesting race.
03/03/19 Sam
Matthew Dube has been one of the more talented NDP MPs but the tides are against him. The Liberals are probably the favourite but the Bloc have a chance as well, with fewer than 4 points between 1st and 3rd place last time.

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