Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Ruth Ellen Brosseau **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(87.35% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(12.65% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|I believe REB will do better than many of scenarios are suggesting, maybe even finishing in 2nd place, but she will ultimately fall here. But to who? There's always an unpredictable element in Quebec on election day, so it will be depend on how well the Bloc get their core voters back but I think they will eke out a win rather than the Liberals.|
|Forgive me if I take that internal poll with a bucket load of salt. As recently as 2006 the CPC got 16,000 votes but haven't come close since. I think 30% may be possible for them but extremely unlikely.|
This is going to be a Lib-BQ seat with an outside chance for REB but I think the NDP will crash further once the campaign begins.
|I always felt that, hard-working and diligent or not, REB was running all along on ugly-duckling-into-beautiful-swan "novelty" fumes, so if she's polling in single digits rather than defying the Jagmeet slump, don't say I didn't warn you. In the end, it might as well be a battle btw/outer-Montreal Bloc leanings and Lib-leaning "Maskinongé moderation", *perhaps* with an outer chance of QuebecCon-ness migrating up the St. Lawrence. And hey, maybe, still, REB if she's lucky.|
|Much will depend on the campaign and it is too early to call now, but Bloc has a clear advantage. The party is gaining popularity, has a popular leader and a well known experienced candidate here. Its voters are most committed and Perron's 25% support of last election will surely show up again. The rest will come from disappointed NDP supporters who in this area are more likely to return to the Bloc than support the Liberals. NDP brand is now toxic in Quebec, and the party of Singh is not seen the same as party of Layton in 2011. I expect a massive outflow of voters from Brosseau, at least half; the party is more important to voters than the candidate. Cons have a distant chance of winning, but have a ceiling at perhaps about 30%, Libs and Greens will benefit from only a small portion of former NDP support. On top of that, the anti-Trudeau and populist vote in this part of Quebec will be going to the Bloc, and not to Cons of any political stripe as the riding remains mostly soft sovereignist and politically left. Unless Bloc makes an unlikely 2011-type Duceppe error implying possible independence vote, it is really Bloc's riding to lose.|
|I totally agree with QuebecCityOliver, Greens will not do 13%. It was just a comparison between Greens and NDP, in polls, at this moment. It's why I put this riding in TCTC column.|
|This riding should be moved into Too Close To Call.|
It was reported in the Quebec media today that Conservative internal polls show the NDP way behind here. Liberals are in 1st at the moment, with the Conservatives in 2nd.
|TCTC - Though I think the NDP might still hold this one. |
And no, I cannot believe the Greens are at 13% nor do I think that will hold at a general election. If they get even 6% in any riding off the island of Montreal I will be surprised. Actually, cracking 3% will be impressive.
It is all very nice getting almost 2,000 votes in an unimportant by-election. But in federal election that will be about 4% of the votes cast.
|This one should be placed in the TCTC column. I'm really not sure of Brosseau's ability to keep this one. Yes, she is very popular, but with the NDP at 8 % in Quebec (Greens are at 13%, can you believe this), it will be a miracle if she win. In fact, this is a good Bloc/Liberal battlefield
maybe the only good news for her.|
|The Liberal numbers have improved, the Tories and the Bloc have moderately improved, but NDP numbers have dropped. Quebec's love affair with the NDP is over, so I predict this riding to be a Liberal pick-up|
|I won't make the call just yet, but I agree with @Laurence Putnam and others. Brosseau has a personal vote, yes, but the NDP will no longer be a reasonable option for many, especially the Quebec values/sovereignty base. The Bloc have a top, well-supported candidate in Yves Perron, and they have never been that far behind. In a better election cycle, they will take this.|
|Brosseau was a great story that people could get behind. The earnest, eager but perhaps naive young candidate who becomes a lightning rod for others' mockery and scorn cartwheels into Ottawa, learns the ropes and becomes an effective MP in her own right. People all over Canada have rooted for Brosseau and the underdog narrative she has represented so well. |
However, as Enoch Powell said, all political careers eventually end in failure. Nothing lasts forever; history is full of MPs like Brosseau who got their couple of terms before the tide went out on them. It's hard to look at current polling numbers and say that Brosseau's personal popularity will be sufficient for her survival.
I would say this IS one of four seats that still harbour a slim, faint hope of staying orange in Quebec; Dusseault, Boulerice and Caron being the other three. Even of those four, I think this one is the weakest. I don't doubt that Brosseau will outperform the majority of NPD candidates in Quebec, but with provincial polling around 10% for the NPD she could do a miraculous two and a half times better than average and with 25% still lose by a wide margin.
If you put any stock in Eric Grenier's seat projections it's just as likely the NPD come up with absolutely nothing in Quebec. That is, at this point, probably the safer bet than one on any NPD incumbent in Quebec.
Given the region the seat is in, the surrounding ridings and the pre-orange wave history, I would suggest a BQ victory is the likeliest outcome.
|I'm increasingly skeptical of Brosseau's ability to hang on, even as the last surviving NDP MP in Quebec, even by a hair. I understand she is a solid candidate and popular enough to withstand a wave as seen in 2015, but the NDP are in a really bad way within the province, falling behind the Greens in some polls, with the Bloc and Conservatives holding their own or even increasing in support over 2015. The parts where Brosseau was strong, being the center of the riding and the parts of Trois-Rivieres it has, are swingy and tempermental, recording massive 40-50 pt swings provincially. I think she'll be in for a fight, and at least, its not an NDP lock.|
|As a former small-towner (who's been living in a far larger one for the last fifteen years), I know all too well the power of personal popularity in a riding such as this. Ruth Ellen Brosseau has firmly earned a place in its lore and should be able to win sheerly on her name alone.|
|The NDP may have seen its glory days in Quebec, but I believe that 2-4 might hang on, and Ruth-Ellen Brosseau is among them. in 2011 who would have thought a unilingual barmaid from Ottawa who spent most of the campaign in Vegas would not only win a riding in deep Francophone Quebec, but actually endear herself so much to the people there that she would be re-elected, and remain popular?|
Well, she learned french, and I daresay, her career as a barmaid taught her not only how to listen, but also gave her a broad understanding of issues affecting peoples lives. Being empathetic has made her a great constituency MP, and she should hang on and win again.
|An NDP win in Berthier-Maskinonge in 2019? Oh no! No! No! No! No! No!|
While Ruth Ellen Brosseau may have been the laughing stock of the 2011 election, only to be one of many surprising NDP wins in Quebec, she did rise to the occasion and become a strong MP in her own right. Were it only her, I'd say she had a great chance of winning again in 2019. Problem is her party leader. He is not striking a chord with Francophone Quebec at all. The wearing of religious symbols is a HUGE sticking point in the Quebec regions, and they won't vote for someone in a turban. Period. Anyone who does not understand this just does not understand Quebecers. Beyond that, it seems every time Singh opens his mouth he says something that rubs Quebecers the wrong way (I am currently watching the byelection coverage and listening to his victory speech. He keeps trashing SNC-Lavalin. That will not sit well what so ever. Reporters have just called him out on it).
I do not know whether the currently surging Liberals will win this seat, or will the riding return to its BQ roots, or if they will give the CPC a chance. All I do know is that they will not vote NDP under Singh.
@ Teddy: Correction to your point. Guy Caron also increased his vote share in 2015 over 2011.
|Brosseau was the only NDP MP in Quebec to increase her vote share in the last election. The reason is simple; she is an excellent MP, and she remains an excellent MP. She may end up as the only NDP MP in Quebec; and if so, its not due to her party, it is all down to the quality of work she puts into her job.|
|Agree Ruth Ellen Brousseau has been quite popular personally but with the NDP cratering so badly in Quebec, she might not be able to survive that. This is not exactly an NDP friendly area, after all it went solidly CAQ provincially while the QS who are most similar to them did relatively poorly here so philosophically this riding is more centrist to centre-right. Nonetheless I suspect she will fare much better than the NDP will in surrounding ridings but not sure if it will be enough.|
|The NDP may fall out of favour in Quebec, but Ruth Ellen has proven to be the real deal. She wins despite her party.|