Election Prediction Project

Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:40:48

Constituency Profile


Albert, Clifford

Barsalou-Duval, Xavier

Chalifoux, Simon

Daviault, Mathieu

English, Sean

Gariépy, Dany


Xavier Barsalou-Duval

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



683.76 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Xavier Barsalou-Duval 1700728.60%
Lucie Gagnon 1679428.30%
Raphaël Fortin 1445424.30%
Clovis Maheux 607910.20%
JiCi Lauzon 50568.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2910.55%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Verchères-Les Patriotes
   (77.89% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (19.36% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (2.75% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
Seat was very close in 2015 but the Bloc pulled it out, given their surge this year I think they keep the seat BQ in 2019.
15/09/19 GritBusters
Old nationalist stronghold that saw much of the traditional Bloc vote go NDP in 2011.
BQ hold.
01/09/19 A.S.
Even if it was extraordinarily close happenstance in one of those weird sub-30% Quebec victories, it's poetically fitting that what had been Quebec-nationalist hallowed ground (including former premier Bernard Landry among its past PQ representatives) chanced into being part of 2015's Bloc comeback caucus. It's still borderline; but that mainly depends on whether the Libs are capable of leveraging its Boucherville rump into something bigger.
04/06/19 Laurence Putnam
Sorry Dr. Bear - I think I agree with the poster previous to you. True, NPD support won't all automatically gravitate to the BQ...but I think in a riding like this that most of it will. Soft nationalist votes, slight but tangible BQ comeback and incumbency all working in their favour here. Definitely a straight Lib-BQ dogfight here but the BQ are still the top dogs here.
06/03/19 Dr. Bear
Woah! Hold your horses on the BQ call. True this is a nationalist area and traditionally voted BQ (back in the day I would have done so without a second thought), however the last two elections proved that the BQ are beatable. Look at the 2015 results; the Liberals and the NDP were a stone's throw of defeating the BQ candidate. True the NDP have collapsed in Quebec, but that soft support has not necessarily gone to the Bloc. Depending on the current mood, it has swung to the Liberals. At the time of this posting, we are in the heat of a scandal. What will the mood be in October? I don't know. But neither does anyone else, and a TCTC listing makes much more sense until we are closer to e-day.
03/03/19 J.F. Breton
In this nationalist area of the South Shore of Montreal, fertile ground for the Bloc. Very involved MP. With the collapse of the NDP, some vote transfer to the Bloc.
01/03/19 Sam
This riding went Bloc but unlike their other close ridings where the NDP were the main threat, the Liberals could have won this on another day, being a few hundred votes behind. It's not clear if any party has an upper hand but it should be a two-way fight and the most vulnerable riding for the Bloc.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster