Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:39:02

Constituency Profile


Allard, Monique

Bessette, Lyne

Cloutier, Steeve

Côté, Bruno

Cotton, Lawrence

Dallaire, Normand

Jetté, Sylvie

Poulin, François


Denis Paradis

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2783.46 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Denis Paradis 2574443.90%
Catherine Lusson 1438324.50%
Patrick Melchior 1025217.50%
Charles Poulin 672411.50%
Cindy Moynan 13772.30%
Patrick Paine 1950.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
An open riding following the stepping down of Liberal MP Denis Paradis. The Bloc has won here before and they are surging but I think the surge won't come here. The Liberals are running former olympian Lyne Besette here and I think she will keep the seat red.
18/10/19 J.F. Breton
Lyne Bessette possède un bonne popularité et elle peut bénéficier du support d'une équipe bien rodée. Dans la Montérégie, c'est l'un des endroits où les Libéraux pourraient résister.
16/10/19 R.O.
It should be noted this riding has no incumbent , longtime liberal mp Denis Paradis has retired and Lyne Bassette is the new liberal candidate. He had been mp from 1995-2006 and returned in 2015. He had been the liberal candidate in this riding in all elections from the 95 by election until 2015. The riding went bloc in 1993, 2006 and 2008 , it went ndp in 2011 like other Quebec ridings did that year. Without a well known liberal mp on the ballot here , the race is perhaps at least different than other years.
12/10/19 Daniel Beaudin
With anybody else than Paradis this one would be tagged Bloc already. A strong nationalist presence with the Bloc wave making damage elsewhere in Quebec is bad news for the liberals. I would'nt give it yet to the Bloc but it's going to be quite a contest, TCTC, as of Oct 11th gives 38% LIB and 32% Bloc. Truly too close to call.
06/09/19 A.S.
Re the ‘fairly reliable’ Tory history: the Mulroney wave shouldn't count, and Heward Grafftey was his own special case (as his late-life comeback attempts for the PCs *and* Progressive Canadians prove). What counts is its recent history as one of the Lib-friendlier Quebec ridings outside Montreal and the Outaouais; and blame Eastern Townships Anglo-Federalism for that--but there wasn't enough of it to save Paradis in '06, though it was enough to assure he was blessed with a valedictory comeback term under Justin. And for the Libs in '19, no Paradis likely = still paradise. It'd require catastrophic rest-of-Quebec Liberal wipeout to take this one away--remember: Grafftey these days would probably be more in the Justin than Scheer camp...
25/04/19 seasaw
This was once a fairly reliable Tory riding. Heward Grafftey held this seat from 1957-68 and again from 1972-80, then Gabrielle Bertrand held it from 1984-93. Since then, the Tories, with the exception of 1997 when they finished a strong second, have become a non entity. I expect the Liberals to do better here than they did the last time.
24/02/19 Sam
In a good year for the Liberals in Quebec as 2019 is expected to be, Brome-Missisquoi should stay Liberal. It has always been a bellwether of Liberal support in the province and was one of their best ridings outside Montreal last time round.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Not a safe Liberal riding by any means, but somewhat more federalist than its neighbours so will go Liberal less because of their strength and more because of NDP cratering in Quebec, BQ on life support, and Tories still largely restricted to the Quebec City region. If things change as they can in Quebec, I may change my prediction.

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