Election Prediction Project

Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:33:59

Constituency Profile


Blanchette-Joncas, Maxime

Brassard-Fortin, Nancy

Caron, Guy

Lacombe, Pierre

Picker-Paquin, Lysane

Pilon, Chantal

Rioux, Jocelyn


Guy Caron

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7741.02 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Guy Caron ** 1937443.10%
Pierre Cadieux 1259428.00%
Johanne Carignan 867319.30%
Francis Fortin 33637.50%
Louise Boutin 6691.50%
Sébastien CôRhino Côrriveau 2730.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Was hoping Caron would hold on but the surge of the Bloc will scoop the seat up. Was a Bloc area until Caron became MP.
14/10/19 Dr. Bear
The rising BQ tide in Quebec will sweep up Guy Caron. I like him, and hope he'd survive but Rimouski is known for electing separatist MNAs/MPs and I think they will do so again. Pity, because I think Caron would serve his community better than what any Bloc MP will do.
11/10/19 Physastr Master
My post in Berthier-Maskinonge was made back when the NDP and BQ seemed to have similarly positive trendlines in Quebec (i.e. last week). I'm reconsidering now. It's starting to look like a full scale BQ wave, which may return us to what the map looked like in 2008. This likely means a complete bloodbath for federalist parties outside of Montreal. I think the only survivors will be MPs that manage to be more popular locally than the BQ leader is. With Singh appearing to no longer be a burden to the NDP, Guy Caron can certainly accomplish that, after all, he was one of a handful of New Democrats that raised their vote share in 2015, but if I was any federalist MP anywhere with a Francophone majority, I would be very nervous right now. I'd like to see a post-debate riding poll here, that is probably the best indicator we'll get of whether Guy can win on his own merits. Still TCTC, but if no compelling evidence of Guy's resilience comes before E-day, the default call needs to be BQ. Speaking of which, there are a lot of ridings outside of Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques that need to be made TCTC or BQ right now.
08/10/19 J.F. Breton
Plusieurs éléments m'incitent à placer cette circonscription dans la colonne des gains pour le Bloc Québécois. 1) Un sondage Mainstreet qui a récemment placé le candidat du Bloc en tête. 2) La remontée dans les sondages du Bloc qui se poursuit chez les francophones au Québec, plaçant même le parti au 1er rang. 3) La bonne performance de son chef lors des débats. 4) Le tout confirmé par les récentes projections de http://canada.qc125.com et de https://www.tooclosetocall.ca.
27/09/19 J.F. Breton
Very interesting race in this riding. It seems that the Bloc is back in the polls, as Qc125.com suggests. It's really not good news for Guy Caron (NDP). The debate will be a key moment. Mainstreet Poll:
- Bloc (29%)
- Liberals (24%)
- Conservatives (18%)
- NDP (15%)
- Greens (6%)
- PPC (2%)
Source: https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-legere-avance-du-bloc-a-rimouski-b8258222c1c92c6ebf93dbbbd8a64131
29/08/19 A.S.
I agree that Guy Caron's looking pretty vulnerable-bordering-on-doomed in spite of himself; but where is this party line coming from that Rimouski has some kind of strong, dominant Liberal base? If anything, it's got more of a history as the hub of "Gaspe separatism", and even stayed solidly PQ in the 2018 provincial disaster--that the Bloc was behind the Libs in '15 had more to do with Caron stealing their "non-Liberal" oxygen. So I could just as well see an echo of Manicouagan across the river, even if everything to the east remains Liberal...
12/08/20 seasaw
Guy Caron is probably the strongest NDP MP from Quebec, but with the NDP polling so low in Quebec, he doesn't stand much of a chance of winning. Liberals are rather strong in this riding, though the Bloc should not be overlooked either. At this point, it looks like a Liberal pickup.
26/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I'm with Sam on this one; although I think the business of predicting the final tally here is much more oblique than in a lot of other ridings precisely because of the impressive 2015 NPD vote which we all realize will go elsewhere. Where a lot of NPD wins in Quebec were in the low 30's and even high 20's, Caron tallied more than 40% here. I fully expect he'll have one of the better showings in the province in 2019, but even 20% would be miraculous...when all is said and done where will his votes go? I would expect many will go to the BQ. However, in the end the Liberal base is so far ahead of everyone else's, and as they are also bound to be beneficiaries of the collapsing NPD vote, even if not the biggest beneficiary, I'd echo the sentiment that the Liberals are likeliest to hold this one.
18/07/19 Sam
Sll puzzled as to how this is the NDP column. Now in fairness, it might be their second best shot in Quebec, Guy Caron is a strong incumbent after all. But the NDP are polling dismal numbers, and so it's likely the personal vote of Guy Caron isn't enough to save him. I'd say the Liberals have gained a strong edge here In the last few months - it's more likely they lose due to their own underperformance than the NDP doing strongly.
08/07/19 J.F. Breton
This one should be placed in the TCTC column. I'm really not sure of Caron's ability to keep this one. Yes, he’s popular in Rimouski-Neigette, but with the NDP at 8 % in Quebec (Greens are at 13%, can you believe this), it will be a miracle if he win. In fact, this is a good Bloc/Liberal/Conservative battlefield… maybe the only good news for him, in a four-way race.
18/03/19 Dr.Bear
Riddle me this:
Abitibi-Temiscamingue saw 41.5% for the NDP, 29.6% for the Liberals, 19.4% for the BQ in 2015 and is listed as TCTC.
Rimouski, et al saw 43.1% for the NDP, 28.0% for the Liberals and 19.3% for the BQ in 2015 and is listed as an NDP hold.
How is one TCTC and the other NDP when they had such similar results in 2015? And before you answer about how wonderful a candidate Guy Caron is (which I do not deny, I think he had an actual plan to govern as NDP leader as opposed to some others that just wanted to yell very loudly at anyone who'd listen), you need to consider that:
a) Candidates usually only sway votes by about 5% during a general election
b) The NDP are sitting at about 8% in Quebec
c) Rimouski is usually a stronghold for separatist parties (this is one of the few remaining PQ seats left!)
No; despite Guy Caron's credentials this is not at all a safe seat for the NDP. If the party starts breaking double digits in Quebec, then maybe (and only maybe). Right now it's a hard no.
05/03/19 Neal
Barring a massive Bloc Quebecois resurgence, Guy Caron should hold this riding for the NDP. He is considered leadership material, and has been a popular MP, winning by comfortable margins thusfar.
03/03/19 Sam
This riding is one of the few winnable ridings for the NDP and Guy Caron has been of their best Quebec MPs and one of two Quebec NDP MPs who increased their vote share. Many of those high-quality candidates still lost in 2015, including Philip Toone in a similar nearby riding, and Caron is definitely vulnerable. He is a strong incumbent in a riding that the NDP still won by 15 points last time, so he cannot be written off. But with declining vote share on a bad night for the NDP this can definitely go Liberal with a decent swing.

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