Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:46:07

Constituency Profile


Benoit, Jeff

Chénier, Pierre

Gagnon, Marc

Haddad, Meryam

Lalime, Marika

Laplante, Hugues

Shanahan, Brenda

Valdivia, Claudia


Brenda Shanahan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



905.92 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Brenda Shanahan 2024539.10%
Sophie Stanké 1261524.40%
Sylvain Chicoine ** 1198623.10%
Philippe St-Pierre 580511.20%
Jency Mercier 9821.90%
Linda Sullivan 1490.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1050.23%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (67.68% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (32.32% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Tony Ducey
I expect a 2 way race between the Liberals and the BQ here but the BQ will win a close race here.
18/10/19 J.F. Breton
Si Too Close to Call donne effectivement le Bloc gagnant, Qc125.com place les Libéraux légèrement en avance. J'aurais tendance à croire à ce second scénario. Le tissu social est plus près du tissu de Vaudreuil-Soulanges que du reste de la Montérégie. Victoire à l'arrachée de la députée sortante du PLC.
12/10/19 Daniel Beaudin
Today's Too Close to call gives the Bloc 32 seats same as liberals. This could seem unreal for a liberal fans but, really, we're looking at a 2011 repeat here and it could easely get worst or better depending on which side your on. When the campain started, liberals we're comfortably floating with 43% support in Quebec but today they have 30%, same as Bloc. Trudeau just failed to give francophones a reason to vote for him while Blanchet reignited the nationalist flame, just like Layton did. Threatening to sue Quebec with bill 21 (who already has 75% of the support in Quebec) was not Trudeau's best stunt. Althought this is not a safe lead yet, I will tag this one Bloc because of the reversed trend that should increase with the hipe elwhere in the province.
TCTC October 11th,Chateauguay:
Bloc 38%
Lib 33%
CP 14%
NDP 7%
Green 7%
04/09/19 A.S.
Shanahan's share wasn't *that* by-Quebec-standards low; remember that 2015's plethora of 3-way races and the deflated ghost of the Orange Crush made sub-40% winning shares actually quite commonplace, to the point where 39% is in fact fairly impressive, especially given how much of this was previously (pre-2011) solid Bloc turf. But chalk it up to Chateauguay--finally, its rump of Anglo-federalist polls could leverage matters riding-wide (though a lot of the riding's interior still went Bloc). Also, PET's buried in this riding.
03/03/19 Sam
At first glance Brenda Shanahan's vote share looks low, but she is assured to win due to split opposition. Although the NDP vote share may crash, there simply aren't enough votes for the second placed Bloc to win here in a good year for the Liberals.

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